The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in Game 1 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Thunder -10.5), with the over/under set at 228.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -470 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +360 to pull off the upset.
The Nuggets survived the opening round with a dominant Game 7 win a few days ago, and now their reward is getting to face a rested, young, hungry Thunder team with the best defense in the league and the best point differential in NBA history.
Can the Nuggets rally to shock Oklahoma City in Game 1? Or will Denver just be food for the Thunder among their parade to a possible Finals appearance? Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Monday, May 5.
Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction, Picks for Game 1
My Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 1 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Thunder -10.5 (-110)
Nuggets vs Thunder Betting Odds for Monday, May 5
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | -470 |
- Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -10.5
- Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 228.5 total points
- Nuggets vs. Thunder moneyline: Nuggets +360, Thunder -470
- Nuggets vs. Thunder best bet: Thunder -10.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview for Game 1
My best bet for tonight's Game 1 is Thunder -10.5. I cannot stress enough how bad of a spot this is for Denver.
Teams coming off a Game 7 with less than three days' rest going up against a team with more than four days' rest are 4-19 SU, 7-16 ATS (30%) since 2003. Double digit underdogs are 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS in this spot.
Seven-game series take it all out of you. They’re exhausting, and the Nuggets' first round series against the Clippers was as exhausting as any. It was physical and mentally taxing, with not a lot of rest spots.
Denver got done Saturday night, flew to OKC on Sunday afternoon, and will play again tonight. It’s just the worst of spots.
Now let’s talk the basketball side.
The Nuggets went 2-2 SU against the Thunder this season. They weren’t competitive in the two losses, and both wins were pretty tight.
The matchups aren’t really the problem here. Lu Dort and the Thunder phalanx of wings will cause Jamal Murray problems, and that can disrupt the Nuggets’ two-man game.
However, Nikola Jokic is an excellent weapon for attacking the Thunder’s strengths in the paint.
Chet Holmgren has been an elite defender of Jokic because he’s able to block all his wild and unpredictable post-up shots (including the Sombor Shuffle).
If Jokic can draw a few fouls against him, he has a much better chance against one-on-one coverage vs. Isaiah Hartenstein.
The Thunder will then bring help, and it’ll be up to the Nuggets’ role players to hit threes, including Russell Westbrook, who was tremendous in the Clippers series.
Conversely, Denver’s defense is the weakest part of this matchup.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best in the league at hunting matchups on switches, and Denver switches with Jamal Murray on all guard-guard screens. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will go to work on him.
If the Nuggets change that and blitz with any screen action involving Murray, that will change the dynamic and move Shai away from a scoring threat. That opens up spot-up shooters and assists for Isaiah Hartenstein (and potentially Holmgren) in the short-roll.
Nuggets vs Thunder Game 1 Betting Predictions
Thunder -10.5 (-110) / Thunder -19.5 (+300)
A big question will be whether the Thunder try and go double-big vs. Aaron Gordon or smaller with Jalen Williams at power forward.
That was their approach in the regular season with Williams getting the majority of matchup minutes vs. the Nuggets.
If Gordon is able to body the smaller lineups for OKC like he did the Clippers’ smaller lineups, that helps Denver.
Turnovers are a massive concern here. The Thunder create absolute havoc and force turnovers. Denver is a turnover-prone team, and that kills both their offense and defense.
When the Nuggets have fewer turnovers than their opponent in the playoffs with Jokic and Murray, Denver is 21-9 SU and ATS (70%). With more turnovers, it drops to 19-18 SU and 16-18-2 ATS.
Particularly in Game 1, with the Nuggets on the road in a new environment, in a new matchup against a rested and better team, that turnover factor is likely to be exacerbated. It’s gotta be OKC here.
Thunder Team Total Over 118.5 (-120)
The home team in those games going up against a squad with rest disadvantage following a Game 7 went over their team total in 15 of the 23 games, so Oklahoma City to go over its team total of 118.5 is a definite play.
OKC should be pushing in this game, causing turnovers, and getting easy buckets vs. a gassed Denver team.
The full game total doesn’t appeal to me because A.) if I’m wrong on all this and Denver is competitive, it’s likely because Denver’s defense is over-performing and dragging down the OKC offense, and B.) if I’m right and this is a blowout, it could get to garbage time and then we’re looking at a lot of points.
Jalen Williams Over 5.5 Assists (+150)
Denver is ranked 29th vs. Williams' position in assists defense.
Gordon will have to roam to help out on-ball, which will lead to drive-and-kick catches for Williams to pump-fake, drive, and dish.
He’ll have a chance to wreck the Nuggets’ second unit, and they don’t have a good secondary defender to throw at him besides Gordon.
Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105)
Holmgren is in a position to have a huge series.
Denver will leave him open from beyond the arc, especially when Jokic is defending him.
The Nuggets are a weak rebounding team, so he’s going to hit the glass. And he’ll have plenty of short-roll opportunities as well.
Nuggets vs Thunder Best Bets for Game 1
- Thunder -10.5 (-110)
- Thunder Team Total Over 118.5 (-120)
- Jalen Williams Over 5.5 Assists (+150)
- Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105)
- Thunder Alternate Spread -19.5 (+300)
