As mentioned in our inaugural Summer League piece last Friday, it’s been highly profitable the past two seasons to bet underdogs and overs.
- Favorites: 66-117-5 ATS, -30.0% ROI, -$5,636 lost for a $100/unit bettor
- Dogs: 117-66-5 ATS, +22.5% ROI, +$4,227 won for a $100/unit bettor
- Over: 107-77-4, +12.0% ROI, +$2,252 won for a $100/unit bettor
- Under: 77-107-4, -19.4% ROI, -$3,638 lost for a $100/unit bettor
I’m heavy in the grind of researching for the British Open, but did anyone really think I wouldn’t take time to bet on Summer League? Come on.
Yesterday’s leans went 3-1 with only the 76ers letting me down in a surprising loss to the Grizzlies. We’re down to the Final Four, and I think there’s some value on the favorites here. The Lakers and Blazers clearly have the best players and rosters, and I’m not sure the lines are inflated as much as they should be. Anyway, let’s dive in …
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. LA Lakers (-6.5) | O/U: 171.5
8:30 p.m. ET
- The Cavaliers are 5-1 in Vegas with a nice +7.3 point differential. The Lakers have been incredible this summer, going a perfect 5-0 with an awesome +15.8 point differential.
- As expected the Cavs ran through an outmatched Raptors team last night, winning by 14. Ante Zizic and Cedi Osman are indeed out for the summer, but it looks like Cleveland is going to continue to run things through rookie PG Collin Sexton, who has continued to show nice signs. He had 18 points on 14 shots yesterday and finished a +21 in his 27 minutes. The Cavs have a tough matchup tonight, but having a lead ball-handler is important in Summer League, and Sexton provides that.
- The Lakers are absolutely rolling through opponents, beating the Pistons yesterday by a whopping 23 points. Josh Hart has continued his torrid Vegas run. In my opinion, he’s been the Summer League MVP with his consistent, high-level play. He played just 21 minutes yesterday due to the blowout, so Hart should be able to go a solid amount of minutes tonight.
Lean: Lakers -6.5, Over 171.5
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers (-5.5) | O/U: 167
10:30 p.m. ET
- The Grizzlies are 4-2 in Vegas with a -3.2 point differential. The Blazers have gone a perfect 5-0 and are tied with the Lakers with the best point differential (+15.8) this summer.
- The Grizzlies surprised me yesterday, beating what I thought was a superior 76ers squad by nine points. Memphis definitely has some talent, especially with 2018 top-five pick Jaren Jackson Jr., who had 14 points on seven shots yeterday; he added a steal and four blocks and projects as a potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate during this NBA career. Jackson is definitely a game-changer who gives the Grizz a chance to hang in any game.
- All that said, the Blazers are still my pick to win the Summer League playoffs. Their roster is ridiculously loaded: Jake Layman, Caleb Swanigan, Zach Collins, John Jenkins, Wade Baldwin, Anfernee Simons, K.J. McDaniels, and Gary Trent Jr. all project as potential rotation players in the league. They’re rolling out very few players who aren’t NBA-caliber guys, and it’s hard to overstate how important that is in a setting such as Summer League. I’m going to keep betting on the Blazers to roll, and will likely do the same tomorrow if they match up against the Lakers. If they’re dogs … whew boy.
Lean: Blazers -5.5