Nuggets vs. Blazers Game 4 Betting Preview: Under in Play After 4 OT Thriller?

Nuggets vs. Blazers Game 4 Betting Preview: Under in Play After 4 OT Thriller? article feature image

Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Trail Blazers guard CJ McCollum (3).

Game 4 Betting Odds: Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers

  • Spread: Blazers -3
  • Over/Under: 210
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Series Score: Blazers Lead 2-1

>> All odds as of Saturday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

The Nuggets and Blazers won’t have much rest before Game 4 after playing four overtimes the other night. A lot of the main guys went 60-plus minutes!

How will that affect tonight’s spread and total? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

Game 3 was the third time since 2005 that two teams both scored 130 points or more in a playoff game … although it did take four overtimes for the Blazers and Nuggets hit that mark.

In the two previous situations, the over went 2-0 in the next game, hitting by 11.8 points per game. Historically, when two teams have both scored 120-plus, the over has gone 12-6 (66.7%) in the next game, hitting by 3.9 PPG. — Evan Abrams

Over the past three postseasons, the Blazers have struggled against the second-half spread, going 3-13 (18.8%); they’re the least-profitable team in this spot during the span. In the 2019 playoffs, the Blazers are 2-6 against the second-half spread, losing four straight entering Game 4 on Sunday. — Abrams

Moore: My Thoughts on the Game 4 Total

The over is 7-6 in the game following a multi-OT game in the playoffs is 7-6, so there’s not enough there for us to get a trend. But the average total in the last seven of those games was 194.

The winning teams in those games were at 101 on average, 52% of the total. More notable, though, is that those last seven games, the winning team’s total was over 100 in five of them. The combined figure was dragged down by a few teams.

These are two good offensive teams. On short-rest after a game like that, the defensive effort and mobility are the things most likely to be limited. Defense is the effort part of a basketball game.

Denver has been on short rest for most of the playoffs and still have put up a number over their 104 total 6-of-10 times (with a seventh coming in at 103 vs. a slower-pace Spurs team).

I like the over on the total, but I especially like it on the Nuggets, with movement going towards them on the line. — Matt Moore

Mears: How I’m Betting Game 4

To no one’s surprise, this total has dramatically dropped to 210 since opening at 215 following Game 3’s four-overtime affair. Nikola Jokic played 65 (!!!) minutes, while Jamal Murray and Gary Harris both played more than 50 minutes.

It was the same story for Portland, with Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Enes Kanter all playing at least 56 minutes. Those dudes have to be exhausted.

Further, it’s not like these games are super far apart, as I wrote in the Game 3 guide. The Nuggets had just two days off after their Game 7 first-round series win, and they’ve since played every other day. That has to catch up to them at some point, and the likely time is definitely Sunday.

For the spread, I think this one will be a stay-away for me. I can understand wanting to bet the Nuggets in an important game down 2-1 in the series, and I can also understand wanting to trail the sharp money on the Blazers.

Historically, favorites getting more money than spread bets have done well against-the-spread:

As of Saturday night, the Blazers are getting 55% of the bets, but 72% of the spread money.

But with fatigue such a huge element in this one, I think there’s too much uncertainty to really go hard on either side.

Back to the total: The line drop has sucked a lot of the value, but I’d still lean the under given the extreme rest circumstances for both teams and especially the Nuggets.

Perhaps it’s worth making a bet on the second-half under when legs are more tired, and remember to monitor this second-half trend I talked about here. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.