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How Sharps Are Shaping Nuggets vs. Spurs Game 6 Spread, Over/Under

Credit:

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marco Belinelli and Malik Beasley

  • Sharp action has been hitting tonight's Nuggets-Spurs Game 6 (8 p.m. ET, TNT) since yesterday, forcing oddsmakers to move both the spread and over/under.
  • Sports Insights' Bet Signals help reveal the plays that the pros are making.

With their 18-point victory in Game 5 on Tuesday, the Nuggets now have a closeout opportunity tonight in San Antonio. But if the point spread is any indication, that’s not the most likely outcome in Game 6.

The Spurs are 3-point favorites on their home court, and the -150 moneyline price implies a 60% chance that they’ll force a Game 7.

Most bettors have felt comfortable getting behind a Spurs win as well, and perhaps because the past three games have all been won by double digits, laying three points doesn’t seem like a hefty price to pay.

At the time of writing, 62% of spread bets are behind San Antonio, but what about the sharps?

Turns out, professional bettors seem to agree.

In fact, the current 3-point spread is largely a result of the sharp action that came down on the Spurs yesterday.

Three Sports Insights Bet Signals were triggered on San Antonio, which opened as a 2.5-point favorite early Wednesday morning. It’s important to note that all three signals came at the opening number, and while some books did reach -3.5 in response to the professional action, they’ve almost all retreated back to the consensus -3.

If the line move continues back to San Antonio -2.5, don’t be surprised to see sharps pounce on the number once again.

As for the total, The Action Network’s John Ewing wrote about the profitability of unders late in NBA playoff series, and it looks like sharps are also riding that trend.

While 67% of bets and 69% of money wagered on the total have hit the over, the line has fallen from 208.5 to 207.5. Another SI Bet Signal revealed smart money hitting the under at 208 this morning.

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