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Pistons vs. Bucks Game 1 Betting Preview: Will Milwaukee Cover as a Double-Digit Favorite?

Apr 14, 2019 5:00 PM EDT
Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34).

Game 1 Betting Odds: Detroit Pistons vs. Milwaukee Bucks

  • Spread: Bucks -13
  • Over/Under: 219
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT

>> All odds as of 4:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.


The Milwaukee Bucks, owner of the league’s best record and point differential, will start their hopeful title run with a first-round series against the Pistons. They’re huge favorites in Game 1; can they cover that big number? Our analysts dive in below.

Betting Trends to Know

The top teams in each conference have combined to go 76-69-3 (52.4%) against-the-spread (ATS) in the opening round. Top seeds have had more success when facing an opponent who is .500 or worse, going 37-25-2 (59.7%) ATS.

The Pistons needed a win in Game 82 of the season to clinch a playoff spot and finished at an even 41-41. The top-seeded Bucks will look to extend this winning trend for No. 1 seeds when they host the Pistons. — John Ewing

The Pistons are in the playoffs for the first time since the 2015-16 season. Some bettors may be hesitant to wager on Detroit as a road team without postseason experience, but our data shows home-court advantage and playoff experience is overrated.

Since 2005, it has been profitable to bet on road teams who didn’t reach the postseason the year before in the first round. — Ewing

The Bucks are 22-4 straight-up at home against the Eastern Conference this season, including 17-8-1 ATS. Of the four Bucks home losses against the East this season, Giannis Antetokounmpo missed two of those games and scored 43 points and 52 points in the other two losses (all to playoff teams: Nets, Sixers, Magic, Raptors). — Evan Abrams

Milwaukee does it on both sides of the floor. The Bucks lead the NBA in field goal percentage allowed this season at 43.3%. Since 2005, teams that allow 44% or worse shooting from the field excel in the first round of the playoffs, going 181-150-4 ATS (54.7%). They’ve gone 42-26 ATS (61.8%) over the last three seasons, covering the spread by 3.3 points per game. — Abrams


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