Saturday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Danny Green Points, More

Today's NBA player props involve Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Thursday night:

• Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors: 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Bucks F Nikola Mirotic

The Pick: Under 8.5 points (-135)

Mirotic has lost a lot of value as this series has progressed. He started the first few games before moving to the bench in Game 5, and he ultimately tallied just 9.2 minutes. He didn’t score in that contest, and he’s likely looking at a similar role for Game 6.

He’s currently projected for just 11.5 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, and it’s going to be incredibly difficult for Mirotic to eclipse 8.5 points in such limited playing time.

The books haven’t really adjusted this line to reflect Mirotic’s reduced role, and this is the highest rated bet in the Player Prop tool. I’d play the under up to -175.

Raptors SG Danny Green

The Pick: Under 7.5 points (-145)

Like Mirotic, Green is another player who has lost playing time as the series has progressed. Norman Powell started to cut into workload in Game 3, and Fred VanVleet has emerged over the past two games. Both players figure to play significantly more than Green in Game 6.

Green averaged just 10.3 points per game over 27.7 minutes during the regular season, and he played just 15.5 minutes in his last game. He took just three shot attempts in that contest, so he’s going to have to be really efficient to hit the over on his scoring prop today.

Green didn’t score in his last game and has scored six points or fewer in four of the first five games during this series. I like the under up to -170.

Bucks G Malcolm Brogdon

The Pick: Over 4.5 rebounds (-115)

Brogdon has been a very important of the Bucks rotation during this series. He moved into the starting lineup recently and has logged at least 27.5 minutes in each of his past three games.

He’s coming off 34.0 minutes in his last contest, and he responded with 11 rebounds. Brogdon is a good rebounder for a guard, averaging 5.7 boards per 36 minutes this season, so this line feels low given his boost in playing time.

This is my favorite over on the slate and I’d play it up to -125.