The Miami Heat (18-15) and Detroit Pistons (25-8) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EST from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Mich. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Pistons are 5.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Pistons -5.5), with the over/under set at 239.5 total points. Detroit is a 65-cent favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Miami is priced at 36 cents to pull off the upset on Fanatics Markets.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Pistons predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, January 1.
My Heat vs Pistons Prediction
- Heat vs Pistons pick: Over 239.5
My Pistons vs Heat best bet is on the Over at 239.5 total points, with the best price currently available at Fanatics Markets. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Heat vs Pistons Odds
Heat vs Pistons NBA Preview
The Heat are on a three-game winning streak, but they have also been on a high-scoring trend in those games, with totals of 237, 258 and 270.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for this game under the "Contrarian Overs, Good Road Teams" system: go with the over.
Miami's offense is on a roll, scoring 125 points or more in four of its past five games, while Detroit has racked up 128 points or more in three of its last four games.
The Pistons not only have the best record in the Eastern Conference (25-8) but also the top home record at 12-2.
Heat vs Pistons Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Contrarian Overs, Good Road Teams system in NBA totals betting is built on the idea that strong traveling teams can drive pace and scoring in matchups where the market leans too heavily toward the under.
By focusing on regular-season games outside of division play, the system avoids slower rivalry environments and taps into contests that tend to be more open and less physical.
It targets overs specifically when the betting public and money trends show a clear lean toward the under, creating a contrarian opportunity where expectations are suppressed but conditions for scoring remain strong.
The away team must be early enough in its season to still carry energy and identity, and it must also be coming off a decisive win, a signal that its offense and confidence are functioning at a high level.
When these elements align, strong road teams often set the tone, push pace, and elevate scoring beyond market expectations, making the over more attractive precisely when it is being overlooked.
Pick: Over 239.5
