NBA Odds & Picks for Suns vs. Clippers: How to Find Value in the Matchup of Western Conference Teams (April 8)
Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images. Pictured: Suns guard Devin Booker
- The Suns are riding a seven-game win streak and a big overtime victory over the Jazz on Wednesday.
- The Clippers are 7-3 straight up and ATS vs. teams with a winning percentage better than 60% when Kawhi and Panl George play.
- Matt Moore breaks down what bets he is targeting on Thursday.
Suns vs. Clippers Odds
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
Out of the frying pan and into the fire. The Phoenix Suns got arguably their best win of the season on Wednesday over the Utah Jazz, clinching the season series and tiebreaker over the conference leader, and pulling within one game in the loss column.
Now on the back-to-back, they travel to LA to face the Clippers. Lucky them.
Meanwhile, the Clippers look to establish some chemistry and get some breathing room from the Nuggets and Lakers, who remain hot on their heels. Patrick Beverley rejoined the team in their win over the Blazers this week, marking a rare time when Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris and Beverley were all available.
The Suns are rolling right now.
Since March 1, the Suns are 14-3 and 4-0 vs. teams with a top-10 point differential. They have arguably been the best team in the NBA over the last two months of play.
Against the Clippers, check for rest on this back-to-back, especially Chris Paul. This season, the Suns are 7-4 ATS this season on the second night of a back-to-back.
Phoenix does have a number of advantages here at full strength. The Clippers are ranked 30th in defending the pick-and-roll ball-handler per Synergy Sports, meaning both Chris Paul and Devin Booker should have opportunities against the drop coverage that Zubac presents.
DeAndre Ayton has an opportunity to shine here. Ayton grabbed seven offensive rebounds vs. the Jazz, which were crucial. The Clippers allow the 2nd-lowest opponent offensive rebound rate, however. The Suns will have to get this one done with defense.
Good thing that Phoenix has the third-best defense against top-10 offenses this season, per Cleaning The Glass.
The Suns also boast the No. 1 bench net rating per NBA.com. That’s in part what’s led to their 30-20, third-ranked ATS record in second quarters per EVAnalytics. The Clippers are just 27-25. Expect the Suns to make gains on the Clippers in bench minutes even if the Clippers starters gain an edge.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are 22-12 ATS with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the lineup this season (25-9 straight up). So the argument for the Clippers here is that you’re laying less than three possessions on the Clippers, at home with Leonard and PG, vs. a team on a back-to-back.
All the trends here favor the Clippers. The Clippers are 4-2 vs. teams on a SEGABABA (SEcond GAme of a BAck to BAck). They are 7-3 straight up and ATS vs. teams with a winning percentage better than 60% when Kawhi and PG play.
Our bet signals tracked in the Action Network app lean towards the Clippers as well:
As of this writing, the CLV on the Clippers is gone, having moved from 5 to 6.
The problem with the total is that when the Clippers lose, the under is 12-6, but when the Suns lose, the under is 4-10.
If you like the Clippers to win, you should like the over, and if you like the Suns to win, you should like the under.
I myself will gravitate towards more micro, line-up-based bets.
Remember what I said about the bench units? Well, even though the Suns have the best net rating for their bench units, that bench unit is also ranked 18th in defensive rating, while the Clippers’ bench unit is 27th (!) in defensive rating, per NBA.com.
When books cap their quarter lines, they basically just chop them, with a slight lean towards second-half scoring. For example, the first-quarter total is 54.5. The second-quarter total is 54.5.
So I’m taking the over on the second-quarter total, banking on the bench units both bleeding points, and the starters coming in to push the score up. I’m also taking the Suns in that second quarter.
- Pick: Suns +1.5 second quarter (+106), over 54.5 second quarter
- Leans: Over 221, Clippers -6.5, no further