Moore’s Warriors-Blazers Game 1 Prop Picks: Splash Brothers vs. Dame/CJ
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, CJ McCollum, Damian Lillard
- Matt Moore makes his picks for the combined scoring props for Stephen Curry-Klay Thompson and Damian Lillard-CJ McCollum for Game 1 of Warriors-Blazers.
The Splash Brothers vs. …. the other Splash Brothers?
We really need a nickname for CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard as they get set to take on Steph Curry and Klay Thompson in the Western Conference Finals.
The props are out for Tuesday night’s Game 1, and both scoring combos are expected to put up at least a nickel combined:
Which backcourt is scoring more tonight?
— B/R Betting (@br_betting) May 14, 2019
Our FantasyLabs prop tool has Curry projected for a stunning 35.2 points and his Splash Bro Thompson for 27.9, with Curry’s bet rated as a 9 out of 10 and Thompson an 8 out of 10. That would mean they’d clear their combined total by more than nine points.
The Blazers haven’t had to face a shooting threat like these two yet. Russell Westbrook and Paul George (on one shoulder) were not the perimeter, off-dribble, off-screen threats that the Splash Bros are. In particular, Portland’s bigs are going to be uncertain in stepping up to contain on the edge.
Look at the drop here from Al-Farouq Aminu. This is a Curry pull-up 3 every time.
Portland just isn’t ready for the weapons the Warriors bring to the table. With that, plus the likelihood of an increased pace with Kevin Durant out combined with increased usage from Curry and Thompson, the over on their combined scoring prop seems like a quality bet.
Lillard and McCollum, meanwhile, are projected for 25.6 and 24.6 respective points, putting their combined total at 50.2 — under their combined total. The Warriors bring more height and length defensively than the Nuggets did, and a smarter, less prideful approach than the Thunder did.
Lillard also looked mentally drained last series after his prolific first-round victory over Westbrook. There’s also a decent chance that Steve Kerr will do the smart thing and commit two on-ball in pick-and-roll coverage to Lillard, effectively forcing him to find smaller, random opportunities. He still found those against a young and inexperienced Nuggets team, but those will be harder to discover with the Warriors.
Playing one over or the other (especially McCollum) might be the way, but their combined total will likely reflect a Warriors approach that concedes one of them getting loose, but not both.
Take the under on Lillard’s and McCollum’s combined scoring prop, even if both can get over their individual ones.