Warriors vs. Blazers Game 1 Betting Preview: Will Golden State Keep Rolling Without Durant?
Photo credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Draymond Green and Damian Lillard
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors Betting Odds
- Spread: Warriors -7.5
- Over/Under: 219
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
>> All odds as of Monday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.
The Warriors managed to down the Rockets in Game 6 without Kevin Durant, and they’ll be without him again for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
Is the spread of 7.5 too high due to KD’s absence? Our analysts discuss.
Betting Trends to Know
Did you know? Stephen Curry is averaging 27.5 PPG in his career against the Blazers, his highest average against any Western Conference opponent and third-highest scoring average against any team, behind just the Wizards and Raptors. When Steph shifts to Portland, he is averaging 29.5 PPG on the road, his highest road scoring average with a minimum 10 games played. – Evan Abrams
The last time Golden State saw Portland this season, the Blazers were stomping the champs, especially in the fourth quarter, when they outscored the Warriors 35-12 en route to a 129-107 win. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 66-47 ATS (58.4%) when facing an opponent they previously lost to; if they lost by 20 points or more, they are 14-8 ATS (63.6%) in the next game, covering by 4.6 points per game. – Abrams
Over the last three seasons, the Warriors have played 34 total games without Kevin Durant but with Steph Curry. Golden State is 30-4 straight-up and 22-12 ATS, winning on average by 12.3 points per game. – Abrams
In the 41 games without Durant since 2016, the under is 27-14 (65.9%). When Durant is out and Curry is in, the under is 23-11 (67.7%), going under the total by 7.5 points per game. – Abrams
It has been profitable to bet favorites late the playoffs. Since 2005, the chalk is 127-113-1 (52.9%) ATS in the Conference and NBA Finals. Large favorites of six or more points, like the Warriors in Game 1, have been even more profitable, going 53-38 (58.2%) ATS. – John Ewing
A majority of spread tickets are on the Blazers in Game 1. In the Steve Kerr era, the Warriors are 13-3 ATS when they get less than 50% of bets, covering the spread by 7.9 points per game. – Ewing
Locky: How I’m Betting Game 1
Last year in the NBA Finals, the prevailing wisdom was that the Warriors were going to demolish the Cavs but the time to bet Cleveland was Game 1. The Warriors had just finished a grueling series against Houston and would be unable to muster the same level of tenacity against Cleveland. Such prognosticators were correct, as Cleveland covered (losing in overtime) and could have won the game without J.R. Smith’s brain fart at the end of regulation.
The Warriors had another hard-fought series against Houston, with fewer healthy players than last year, and even the players who are playing are no doubt nursing minor injuries. Their opponent this time, though, the Blazers, just played seven games against Denver and played at altitude just 48 hours prior to Game 1 in a grueling affair. Rodney Hood, a key member of their bench who was excellent against Denver, is questionable. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum each just played 45 minutes Sunday afternoon.
If anything, rather than banking on the Warriors not ‘getting up’ for this game, I’d rather play against what HAS to be a crazy level of fatigue for Portland. The Warriors have the rest advantage, and given that we know what they can do without Kevin Durant, combined with a big home-court advantage at Oracle Arena, is this number big enough? The only thing scarier than Golden State at home is rested Golden State at home.
I think the level of ball movement and player movement the Warriors can bring to this game should really wear Portland out over the course of 48 minutes, and Terry Stotts and his crew may need some time to get acclimated to this ‘old Warriors’ style.
Given the trends above, and the consistent manner in which Golden State is downgraded without Kevin Durant, I am on the Warriors here at -7.5. With my numbers, I would bet them up to -9. I honestly think this Warriors team without Durant just genuinely likes playing together, and it will show on the court as it did in Game 6 against Houston. — Ken Barkley
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.