How to Fade the Public with a Profitable College Hoops Trend on Wednesday
Jan 25, 2018; West Lafayette, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines coach John Beilein claps on the sidelines against the Purdue Boilermakers during the first half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Guess what day it is? It’s hump day! As a reward for slogging through another workweek, I’ve identified a game featuring a top-25 team with contrarian value AND a profitable trend.
No. 22 Michigan (20-7, 9-5 Big Ten) vs. Iowa (12-15, 3-11 Big Ten) is a classic sharps vs. squares game. Recreational bettors are pounding the Wolverines -12 as home favorites early, which isn’t a surprise. Top 25 teams have received a majority of spread tickets against an unranked opponent in 85% of all games since 2005.
But fading the public with road dogs in conference games has been a really profitable strategy over the long haul. This Pro System has gone 229-132-4 (63.4%) ATS since 2005, meaning a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $8,699.
It helps, too, that the early action seems to indicate the wiseguys are on the Hawkeyes. The game opened at -12, but has moved down to -11.5 at some books, despite the three-fourths of the early spread bets being on Michigan.
Also, an important bit of on-court context: Michigan enters tonight’s game not playing its best basketball. The Wolverines are just 4-3 in their past seven, losing to Nebraska and Northwestern, two teams that are similar to Iowa. The Hawkeyes also has the firepower to keep this game close. Fran McCaffery’s squad is third in the Big Ten in scoring (80.1 points/game) and ranks 28th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency. Iowa has a losing record and little public support, which makes the Hawkeyes a great contrarian play.
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