NC State hosts Kansas in a huge non-conference matchup for both teams on Saturday, Dec. 13.
I've fired up my player projections, and I've found a monster edge for a Wolfpack guard begging for shooting regression.
NC State vs Kansas Picks, Player Prop
Quadir Copeland Under 0.5 3PM (+150)
Quadir Copeland is currently shooting an unsustainable 55.6% from downtown, which is crazy given his career average is 27.1% and he's never finished a season better than 25%.
I've regressed his 3-point shooting to a generous 35% (I could go lower, but am leaving it at that for now), but he'll face the Kansas Jayhawks, who allow the third-lowest 3-point made percentage in college hoops despite facing a top-10 schedule.
Copeland isn't really a high-volume 3-point shooter either, having attempted at most three in any game this year, and more than three just four times in his four-year career, three of which came as a regular starter.
If we assume he'd be even lower than my projected long-term 35% because he faces the Jayhawks, then I'm projecting him for almost exactly 0.6 3-pointers made as a long-term number in this game.
That means he'd stay under 0.5 around 54.5% of the time, making +150 (40% implied odds) fantastic value with a raw edge around 14.5%.
Pick: Under 0.5 3-pointers Made (+150, bet365)
