Tuesday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Targeting One Dog and Three Unders
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Conference tournaments are in full swing. Before you know it, it will be Selection Sunday. But right now the sharps aren’t worried about brackets. Instead, they’re laser focused on taking advantage of soft tourney lines in the hopes of stacking some pre-Big Dance units.
After examining all percentages and line movement for Monday’s 21-game slate, here are four college basketball bets that professional players are focusing on today, including games that start at 6:30, 7:00 and 9:00 p.m. ET.
All data as of 4:00 p.m. ET
Coppin State-NC Central Under 127.5
6:30 p.m. ET
Wiseguys never sleep. They steamed the Under 134 at 5Dimes at 3:21 a.m. ET Tuesday. Six hours later, wiseguys hit the Under 133 at YouWager. But they weren’t done. Despite the total continuing to fall, wiseguys hit the Under again at 128 at Bovada. Obviously, PJ Walsh is moving the market. Words of wisdom from the Wake and Rake Zenmaster: “Comparing current to opening numbers is part of the puzzle, but tracking individual line moves, and why they’re moving, is the key to breaking down exactly what is driving betting market movement.”
Wake Forest (+4) vs Syracuse
7:00 p.m. ET
The public is all over 19-12 Syracuse in this ACC Tournament first-round matchup. In the most lopsided game of the night, the Orange opened -4 and moved to -5 behind 80% of public bets. That’s when the sharps got down hard on Wake Forest.
They hit Wake +4.5 at JustBet, +5 at BetOnline and +5 at SBG, triggering a trio of reverse line moves that caused the line to drop back down to +4 across the market. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp “line freeze” on Wake despite heavy Cuse betting.
Northeastern-Coll Charleston Under 132
7:00 p.m. ET
We’re seeing massive sharp action on Under in this CAA Final showdown. The Under is getting 63% of bets but it accounts for nearly 80% of dollars. Wiseguys at CRIS steamed Under 138 this morning. Then, early this afternoon, sharps at Pinnacle steamed Under 133. But that wasn’t all. Sharps hit the Under again at 132.5 at 5Dimes, the top book for College Hoops totals (+68.4 units). The moves are noteworthy for three reasons. First off, CRIS, Pinnacle and 5Dimes are three sharper offshore books (high limits, cater to professional players) and they’re all on the same page. Second, even though the total fell big, sharps continued to get down on it. Third, no conflicting plays on the Over (although we may see buyback if it continues to drop). We also have a strong Bet Labs Conference Tournament Under system match on this game (3-1 this postseason, 63% since 2005).
Cleveland State-Wright State Under 126.5
7:00 p.m. ET
Another Conference Tournament final, another sharp under play. Wiseguys triggered a pair of steam moves on Under 129 at Pinnacle and Buckeye, then came back again on Under 128 at Pinnacle. The total is down to 126.5 after opening at 132. The sharps must have a Bet Labs account, because this game is another Conference Tournament Under system match.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
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Cover Photo via Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Wake Forest Head Coach Danny Manning