The Cal State Northridge Matadors take on the Stanford Cardinal in Stanford, CA. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network Extra.
Stanford is favored by -16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2200. The total is set at 165 points.
Here’s my Cal State Northridge vs. Stanford prediction and college basketball picks for December 27, 2025.
Cal State Northridge vs Stanford Prediction
My Pick: Over 165 (Play to 167)
My Cal State Northridge vs Stanford best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Cal State Northridge vs. Stanford Odds
| Cal State Northridge Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 165 -110 / -110 | +1100 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 165 -110 / -110 | -2200 |
- Cal State Northridge vs Stanford spread: Stanford -16.5
- Cal State Northridge vs Stanford over/under: 165 points
- Cal State Northridge vs Stanford moneyline: Cal State Northridge +1100, Stanford -2200
Cal State Northridge vs Stanford College Basketball Betting Preview
Cal State Northridge Basketball
Cal State Northridge went into the brief Christmas break with an 8-5 record while winning five of its past six games.
Playing fast is the style that Andy Newman has brought to Northridge, with the Matadors maintaining a top-15 tempo for the third straight season.
However, the new group of portal newcomers has altered Cal State Northridge's defensive DNA. Over the last few years, Keonte Jones was the catalyst for Cal State Northridge posting a 20% turnover rate. With Jones and others gone, it's dipped to a 15% turnover rate this season.
The drop in defense has been killing Cal State Northridge's defensive numbers, as it's down to 287th in defensive efficiency.
In some ways, Cal State Northridge plays too fast for its own good since it's not forcing turnovers to get running offensively. Typically, it's running off made shots from the opposing team.
The Matadors' pressure leads to teams bombing away from deep against them, with 47% of their opponents' shots coming from 3-point land. Teams connect on 34% of those looks.
Interior defense is a worry, too. Coach Newman prefers lengthy wings on his interior instead of plodding bigs. That's how you end up with 6-foot-6 Mahmoud Fofana and 6-foot-7 Davius Loury starting at the four and five, respectively.
The backcourt is taller, with the other three starters standing 6-foot-3 to 6-foot-6.
Those guards will have to shoulder the scoring load. Former Saint Louis guard Larry Hughes II has provided dynamite perimeter scoring, tallying 18.4 points per game on 46% shooting and 42% from deep.
Joshua O'Garro could be in for a strong game here. The uber-athletic wing could cause problems for Ryan Agarwal in this matchup.
Cal State Northridge is a pretty poor shooting team, making just 32% from downtown. The only two reliable perimeter shooters are Hughes and Loury, who can stretch the defense out and space the floor.
Stanford Basketball
Stanford is off to a terrific start in the second year of the Kyle Smith era, and the excellent tactician is maximizing his talent. The Cardinal are 10-2 and boast two top-100 wins over Colorado and Saint Louis.
Smith has a speedy roster this season, and he's changed his style accordingly. Stanford plays at a top-100 adjusted tempo, which is the fastest a Smith-coached team has deployed since 2020, his first year at Washington State.
Stanford thrives off forcing turnovers, knocking the ball away on 21% of defensive possessions. That'll be a way for Stanford to up the pace, as Cal State Northridge turns it over 18% of the time.
Freshman phenom Ebuka Okorie should cook in this matchup. Stanford's stud guard leads the team with 22.3 points per game, which is one of the top markers in America.
He's ultra-quick, and he's second in the country with 9.2 free-throw attempts per game. Even if the offense struggles for a bit, Okorie can keep the total trending upwards with the clock stopping for free throws.
The Cardinal are terrific at getting to the foul line, ranking 32nd with a 44.8% FTA/FGA metric, per KenPom.
Forward Chisom Okpara also gets to the line a ton, shooting nearly seven freebies per game.
Cal State Northridge vs. Stanford Betting Analysis
The pace should be rampant in this one. Stanford will likely approach 100 points, as it did in wins over Montana, Portland, Louisiana and Portland State. The Cardinal scored 89-94 points in all four games.
The difference is that one of the four teams plays at the tempo that Cal State Northridge does. The Matadors will turn the ball over close to 20 times against this tough Stanford defense, and they'll also likely send Stanford to the line enough to get 25-30 free points.
What hitting this high total will boil down to is Cal State Northridge scoring. I think it has enough offense to get into the mid-70s and maybe even 80-point range.
That would push the total over with how dominant I see Stanford's offense being.
My Pick: Over 165 (Play to 167)
