A Profitable Trend to Know Before Betting Sunday’s Conference Title Games
Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports
The climb to a conference tournament title can be brutal. Many championship games come at the tail end of grueling slog of games on back-to-back-to-back days. High pressure matchups, combined with increased player fatigue, can often lead to lower scoring games, which would give the under value.
Here is how to take advantage of tired legs using a profitable system that applies to four conference tournament games (12 p.m. ET, 1 p.m. ET and 3:30 p.m. ET).
Be sure to check back throughout the day, as games may be added as more lines get released.
Using the Bet Labs database, we find that the under has gone 1,691-1,564-44 (52.0%) in all conference tournament games since 2005. Most of these games are played at a neutral site, but in small conference tournaments the higher seeds actually receive home-court advantage in the early rounds. By eliminating these games and focusing on just contests played on a neutral court, we’re able to increase our profit from $1,296 to $3,431, for a $100 bettor.
If fatigue is a significant factor like we believe, then players should become more worn out as a tournament proceeds. The data backs up this theory.
In fact, there is very little value betting the under in conference tournaments until the finals when players have logged the most minutes and competition is stiff. Since 2005, neutral court unders in the championship round of conference tournaments have gone 177-126-11 (58%).
One additional filter improves our results even further. This is counter-intuitive, but it has been more profitable to bet the under in games that oddsmakers expect to be low scoring. If a finals matchup during Championship Week has a total of 140 or less, the under is 114-68-6 (63%) since 2005.
Here are the four conference tournament championship games that match on Sunday.
Harvard vs. Penn (12 p.m. ET): A steam move at 5Dimes has pushed the total down from 135 to 132 in the Ivy League final despite a majority of bets being on the over.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee (1 p.m. ET): When the SEC title game matches this system the under has gone 8-1. The total opened 138.5 and is down to 136 at CRIS, a sharp sportsbook.
Rhode Island vs. Davidson (1 p.m. ET): The majority of bets and dollars are on the under in Atlantic 10 championship pushing the line down from 141.5 to 139.5.
Cincinnati vs. Houston (3:30 p.m. ET): Cincinnati and Houston were profitable under teams in the regular season going 17-10 and 16-9 respectively. When both teams matching this system have winning under record the win rate improves to 67%. Total for this game is sitting at 127.5, it opened at 129.5.
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Pictured above Tennessee’s Grant Williams
Photo via Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports