#FadeThePublic: Friday’s Profitable College Hoops Trend

#FadeThePublic: Friday’s Profitable College Hoops Trend article feature image

Friday night’s 10-game college basketball slate is headlined by a Big Ten showdown between No. 6 Michigan State and Wisconsin. This matchup will be the most bet but it’s not the game savvy bettors should target.

In the northeast, Rider (14-7) will host Saint Peter’s (8-11). These are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Broncs of Rider University have won seven of eight while the Peacocks have lost four straight and six of the team’s last eight.

Rider has also been kind to bettors going 11-5-1 ATS this season while Saint Peter’s is 5-9 ATS and has failed to cover the number in four consecutive games. The disparity at the ticket window is the opening sharp bettors will exploit.

Poor teams against the spread (covered in 50% or fewer of games) are undervalued when they face squads that have consistently covered (cashed tickets in two-thirds of games). Recreational bettors tend to fade the teams that have disappointed and chase the ones that have won them money recently. Oddsmakers will inflate the line anticipating square action on the good ATS club.

By going against the public, sharp bettors can get an extra half to full point, which often means the difference between cashing tickets. Betting on poor ATS teams seems like a simple strategy, and it is, but the results speak for themselves.


Poor ATS teams are 538-366-22 (59.5%) ATS vs. good ATS teams since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $14,383 following this betting strategy.

Our Pick

Go Peacocks! Being a contrarian bettor means buying low and Saint Peter’s is a perfect opportunity to go against the grain.

Bet Labs users can improve this Pro System with an additional filter. St. Pete lost its previous matchup to Rider last Thursday. Poor ATS teams after losing its previous game to a good ATS team have gone 232-145-9 (61.5%) ATS since 2005.

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Photo via Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports