CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Iowa State-Texas Tech, 2 Other Games
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Texas Tech head coach Chris Beard
- Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games on Wednesday night, headlined by Iowa-Penn State (7 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Creighton-St. John's (6:30 p.m. ET) and Iowa State-Texas Tech (9 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys got taken to the woodshed on Tuesday night, swinging and missing on all four of their plays. As bad as an 0-4 night is, sharps know that sometimes the breaks just don’t go your way.
Over the course of a year, a sharp will lose roughly 45% of their plays. Stay the course and think long term, always.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Creighton @ St. John’s
6:30 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 165.5 to 159)
When betting totals, casual bettors focus on the over/under itself (if it’s high, bet the under, if it’s low, bet the over) and how many points each team averages on offense.
This Big East total opened at a high 165.5. The public automatically leans under, but it also sees two high-scoring offenses going head-to-head (Creighton 84.53 PPG and St. John’s 83.12 PPG). As a result, bettors are somewhat split, with 56% taking the under.
However, the under is also getting nearly 80% of dollars, indicating heavy professional support. Using our Sports Insights bet signals, we tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the under, with sharps hammering Under 166.5, Under 164.5 and twice at Under 160.
The fact that Goodfellas kept hitting the under despite the line getting worse signals supreme wiseguy confidence in a lower-scoring game.
Iowa @ Penn State
7 p.m. ET | BTN
Sharp angle: Penn State (moved from pick’em to -2)
The public takes one look at this spread and immediately sprints to the betting window. How did Iowa (14-3, ranked 23rd overall) open at a pick’em against struggling Penn State (7-10)? Hawkeyes all day!
However, despite 68% of bets taking the Hawkeyes, the line has moved toward Penn State (pick’em to -2). What gives?
We’ve tracked five separate steam and reverse line moves on the Nittany Lions, with wiseguys getting down hard on PSU multiple times at +1 and a pick’em. This overload of smart money forced the oddsmakers to adjust PSU all the way to -2.
Iowa State @ Texas Tech
9 p.m. ET | ESPNU
Sharp angle: Iowa State (stayed at +5)
Sharps and squares (recreational bettors who bet for fun) are on opposite sides of this Big 12 spread.
In one of the most heavily bet games of the night, Texas Tech (15-1, ranked eighth overall) opened as a 5-point favorite on its home court.
Currently, 77% of bets are laying the points with the Red Raiders, however, the line has not budged. Typically, overwhelming public support such as this will push a team from -5 to -6 or -7. The fact that the line remained frozen indicates liability on the road dog, with books reluctant to hand out even an extra half-point to wiseguy Iowa State backers (12-4, unranked).
The Cyclones are receiving only 24% of bets but 54% of dollars, further evidence of smart money grabbing the points, not laying them.