CBB Sharp Report: Smart Money Hitting Nebraska-Indiana, Texas-Kansas
Texas Longhorns guard Elijah Mitrou-Long. Credit: John Gutierrez-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting two College Basketball games on Monday night: Nebraska-Indiana (6:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1) and Texas-Kansas (9 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- Using The Action Network's betting tools, we analyze how sharps are betting both games.
Another NFL playoff weekend has come and gone. Unfortunately, sharps and squares will have to wait six more days to sweat the AFC and NFC Championship games. But luckily we have some quality college basketball games to get down on as we bide our time until Sunday.
After examining today’s small eight-game college basketball slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified two games that sharps are targeting on Thursday night: Nebraska-Indiana (6:30 p.m. ET) and Texas-Kansas (9 p.m. ET).
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Nebraska @ Indiana
6:30 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Nebraska (moved from +2.5 to +2)
Casual bettors fall victim to overvaluing won-loss records. Whichever team has the more impressive record is the one they gravitate toward. However, both Nebraska and Indiana are 12-4. So the next step is take the higher-ranked team, especially if it’s a favorite at home.
But wiseguys know better than to bet based on only that criteria.
This game opened with 25th-ranked Indiana listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. Heavy public betting (nearly 80% of bets) pushed Indiana from -2.5 to -3. That’s when sharps got down hard on the Cornhuskers.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed a big reverse line move on Nebraska +3. This overload of sharp action caused the line to fall down to Nebraska +2.
Unranked Nebraska is getting only 23% of bets but 47% of dollars, making it a match for the profitable Bet Labs PRO System Money Disparity Causes Line Move (59% ATS since 2005).
Texas @ Kansas
9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Texas (+8 to +7) and Under (139.5 to 135.5)
Pros and Joes are on opposite sides of both the spread and over/under in this Big 12 showdown.
Kansas (14-2) is ranked seventh overall and favored at home against the 10-6 Longhorns. Naturally, the public has no worries laying the points, expecting an easy Rock Chalk blowout at Allen Fieldhouse.
The Jayhawks opened as 8-point favorites. However, the line has fallen to -7 or even -6.5 despite more than 60% of bets laying the points.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to give public Kansas bettors an easier shot at covering? Because they got hit with an overload of professional money on Texas, forcing them to adjust the spread in favor of the road dog.
Texas always enjoys a massive smart money discrepancy: the Longhorns are receiving only 39% of bets but 72% of dollars, further evidence of sharps in their favor.
Wiseguys are also betting the over/under.
The total opened at a relatively low 139.5. Currently 78% of bets (but only 65% of dollars) are taking the over. Meanwhile, the total has fallen all the way to 135.
We noticed four separate steam and reverse line moves on the under, with wiseguys hammering Under 141, Under 140, Under 139 and Under 137. The fact that the line got worse but pros kept hitting it is evidence of supreme wiseguy confidence.