Duke vs. North Carolina Odds, Pick, Prediction: Can Tar Heels Pull Off Shocker?


Streeter Lecka/Getty Images. Pictured: Tre Jones

  • Updated Duke vs. North Carolina odds list the Blue Devils as a 7.5-point road favorite, with the total at 149.5.
  • The Tar Heels have limped to a 10-12 record and have won just twice in 2020, while Duke is one of the best teams in the nation thanks to a top 10 offense and defense.
  • Get our experts' picks and predictions for Duke-UNC below.

Duke vs. North Carolina Odds

  • Odds: Duke -7.5 at UNC
  • Total: 149.5
  • Time: 6 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: Chapel Hill, N.C.

[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet Duke-UNC now at FanDuel]

The best rivalry in college basketball has lost some luster this year with UNC struggling to a 10-12 record, but the atmosphere in Chapel Hill should still be electric on Saturday.

The Tar Heels are the biggest home underdog in this matchup since at least 2006, according to our Bet Labs database.

Can they pull off the upset, or at least keep it close? Let’s dive in.

How Odds Moved for Duke-UNC

Most books opened at Duke -8.5 or -8, and that was too high for early bettors. The line came down to -7.5 in most spots overnight Friday.

Betting action is nearly split, with Duke getting 52% of the bets as of Saturday morning. — Steve Petrella

When Duke Has the Ball

The Blue Devils had their worst shooting performance of the season against Boston College this week, making just one of 15 attempts from beyond the arc. The Eagles are nowhere close to a competent defense, especially around the perimeter.

Duke does not rely on scoring from 3-point range, ranking 293rd in point distribution from beyond the arc. The bread and butter for a young Blue Devils roster is within the arc, where Duke ranks in the top 20 in 2-point shooting percentage nationally.

North Carolina is not a threat to force takeaways, but a rank of 11th nationally in defensive rebounds will limit Duke’s second-chance opportunities. — Collin Wilson

When UNC Has the Ball

The Tar Heels have covered just two games at home this season after their latest loss to Boston College.

The formula for success in most recent games has been power forward Garrison Brooks. In games the junior has shot 50%, North Carolina has either won or gone to overtime.

But shooting has been the biggest issue with Roy Williams’ squad all season, ranking 329th in effective field goal percentage and outside the top 300 in free throw percentage.

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