Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma Projected Odds: Our Spread, Total for NCAA Tournament Second Round
Jack Dempsey/Getty Images. Pictured: Mark Few.
#1 Gonzaga vs. #9 Oklahoma Odds
How Gonzaga & Oklahoma Match Up
|All stats via KenPom.|
What To Know About Gonzaga
Gonzaga metrics are as dominant as any team in recent history.
Head coach Mark Few’s Bulldogs are the most efficient offense in the nation, per KenPom. They are first in effective field goal percentage (61.1%) and 2-point efficiency (64.4%). They are strong from beyond the arc, shooting 36.7% as a team. Player of the Year candidate Corey Kispert (19.5 PPG, 46.5% 3P) and guard Joel Ayayi (11.3 PPG, 36.9% 3P) are deadly shooters from deep.
Per Shot Quality, the Bulldogs are one of the best-coached teams in the nation with top rank in points per play after a timeout. And they are an absolute terror in transition, led by superstar point guard Jalen Suggs. The Bulldogs lead the nation in percentage of shots in transition and rank second in expected field goal percentage in transition shots, per Hoop Math.
Oh, and I didn’t even mention potential Player of the Year candidate Drew Timme in the interior.
Gonzaga is a juggernaut and should be the top-rated team in any set of power ratings. Not only do the Bulldogs have the best offense in the country, the they also actually rank 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Unlike last season, there are no major concerns about the Gonzaga defense. There are really no holes on Mark Few’s squad which plays at warp speed (fourth in adjusted tempo) and can score in transition as efficiently and quickly as any team I’ve ever seen.
And don’t get caught up in their weak conference schedule as the Zags beat Kansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Iowa and Virginia all on neutral courts in the non-conference. It will take a special effort to take out the Zags this season. I’m not sure anybody can realistically take them out prior to the final four unless someone goes nuclear from 3 while Gonzaga has an off-shooting night.
They are the real deal.
What To Know About Oklahoma
The Sooners are 38th in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, but they finished the season losing five of their last six games. The only win was against Iowa State, which went 0-18 in Big 12 play.
Oklahoma’s offense goes through Austin Reaves, its leading scorer, rebounder and assister. They also have a few other capable scorers in Brady Manek, the streaky Umoja Gibson and De’Vion Harmon. Elijah Harkless is the do-everything glue/energy guy.
There’s a lot of offensive talent for Lon Kruger to work with, but it’s a very perimeter oriented offense that can get beat up in the interior and glass on both ends. Their defense is also very vulnerable on the perimeter as they sag off the 3-point line in order to cover for their lack of interior size and vulnerabilities when it comes to defending dribble penetration.
The offense is talented and won’t beat itself with turnovers or free throw misses, but there’s a reason why Oklahoma lost 10 games and finished as the No. 7 seed in the Big 12 this year. While competitive in most, they are just a notch below the rest of the elite teams in the Big 12.
I think that’s a pretty good signal as to who this team is. They could advance to the second weekend with the right matchups, but I can’t see them beating multiple elite teams in a row to make any sort of significant run. — Stuckey
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