Purdue vs. Ohio State Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Boilermakers Solve Road Issues?

Purdue vs. Ohio State Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Boilermakers Solve Road Issues? article feature image

Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Eric Hunter Jr.

  • Updated Purdue vs. Ohio State odds list the Buckeyes as a 5-point betting favorite over the Boilermakers, with the over/under at 129.
  • Ohio State has quietly been rounding into form after a disastrous January, and will now host a Purdue team that's been poor on the road all season.
  • Get our Purdue vs. Ohio State picks and predictions below.

Purdue vs. Ohio State Odds

  • Odds: Ohio State -5 [Bet Now]
  • Total: 128
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX

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After a bad slump in January, Ohio State appears to be rounding into form. The Buckeyes have won four of their last five and are 3-1-1- against the spread in that time.

Purdue meanwhile has continued to struggle on the road. The Boilermakers are 1-7 ATS away from home against projected NCAA Tournament teams.

Can they right the ship on Saturday? Let's break it all down.

Market Moves for Purdue-Ohio State

Early action has been all over Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have moved from -4.5 to -5.5 behind 70% of the bets and 67% of the money (get live percentages here). There are still some -5's available as of 8 a.m. ET on Saturday. — Steve Petrella

When Purdue Has the Ball

The Purdue offense has been a rollercoaster ride this season. The Boilermakers scored 63 or less against Maryland, Rutgers and Northwestern before scoring 104 against Iowa.

While Purdue has proved it can play at a faster pace, a loss to Penn State came after shooting 24% from beyond the arc. Purdue rarely gets to the foul line the least out of all Big Ten teams, making field goal percentage crucial each game.

The biggest advantage when Purdue has possession is the offensive glass. The Boilermakers are top 25 in the nation in offensive rebounds, while Ohio State is outside the top 100 in defensive rebounding.

Second chance points in the paint may be tough against a Buckeyes defense that is fourth in the nation against 2-point shots. Look for Purdue's Trevion Williams to have a monster day, as the sophomore center is No. 7 in the country in offensive rebounding rate. — Collin Wilson

When Ohio State Has the Ball

The formula to beating Ohio State has been a slow pace combined with shutting down forward Kaleb Wesson. In losses against Minnesota and Wisconsin, the junior shot a combined 3 for 21.

Purdue fields one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers defense ranks 33rd in the nation in defending the perimeter, but that number balloons in conference play.

Purdue gives up a 3-pointer at a 33% rate, which is great news for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are No. 3 in the Big Ten in point distribution from deep and rank No. 1 in conference play at 36.8%.

Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Kaleb Wesson

Purdue plays aggressive defense and ranks first in the conference in turnover rate. Ohio State will need to limit turnovers and pound shots from deep.

Ohio State is by far the better team from the charity stripe, shooting 75.5% in conference to Purdue at 64.5%. Look for the Buckeyes to protect the ball, shoot deep against a soft perimeter defense and hit more free throws. — Collin Wilson

Stuckey's Angles: Wesson the Key

These are two teams I have rated in the top 25 of my most recent power ratings. I do have Ohio State slightly ahead but only by a point. Throw in home-court advantage and this line is fairly close to what I have.

Last season, Purdue won both meetings comfortably, including a 35-point massacre in Mackey Arena. I’m sure Ohio State will have been reminded of both of those games throughout the week.

It is worth noting that Kaleb Wesson didn’t play in that last game and he fouled out in only 16 minutes in the other meeting.

I actually think he may be the key piece for the Buckeyes and he must stay out of foul trouble this time around. If he can bring the Purdue bigs out to defend him on the perimeter where he’s shooting 42% from 3, that will really open up the driving lanes for Ohio State.

You do have to mention the road struggles of Purdue which have been very real this year. I ultimately think Ohio State holds serve at home, but the line doesn’t offer any value. Maybe if Purdue jumps out to an early lead, the Buckeyes could appeal to me around a PK live.

But on the other hand, if Ohio State jumps out to an early lead and Wesson gets in foul trouble, I may look to get in on Purdue live, so this is a pure wait and see game for me from a betting perspective as this one could be decided on which key big gets in foul trouble first.

It’s also worth noting that if the refs are calling it tight, Ohio State is much more reliable at the charity stripe. — Stuckey

Our Bets

[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Ohio State -5: The Buckeyes have slowly returned to their early season form that convinced many to project Ohio State as a legitimate Final Four contender. They have won four of their last five games including a road win at rival Michigan. And Purdue’s win at Indiana does not change the trend of poor road performances by the Boilermakers.

The Buckeyes have held three of their last five opponents under 60 points, while Purdue’s 308th rank free throw shooting percentage is always a concern in covering road spreads.

Ohio State is the best 3-point shooting team in Big Ten play, providing confidence of a home cover in this spot. — Mike Randle

Ohio State -5: I covered this more in-depth in my best bet of the day, but I like the Buckeyes here.

Chris Holtmann’s defense has put the clamps on the competition this season. They lead the Big Ten in 2P% defense and have held six straight opponents to 66 points or fewer. The Buckeyes lone issue has been perimeter defense. Opponents shoot a healthy 33.8% from long range, and bury 7.3 treys per game (205th).

In this spot, I wouldn’t count on Purdue to suddenly find its road shooting stroke, which amounts to their only chance to stay within five points of the Buckeyes. — Mike Calabrese

[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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