CBB Sharp Report: How Pros Are Betting Virginia-North Carolina
North Carolina Tar Heels guard Coby White (2) with teammates. Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys have taken a clear side in tonight's marquee ACC showdown between Virginia and North Carolina (7 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- The Tar Heels are listed as 1-point favorites with an over/under of 140.5.
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting the big game.
What separates professional and casual bettors? In one word, discipline. Professionals only get down if they have an edge. They know that just because a game is nationally televised doesn’t mean they have to bet it.
However, if the value is there, they pounce. Tonight is a perfect example.
After analyzing Monday’s short 15-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action hitting the biggest and most heavily bet game of the night: Virginia at North Carolina (7 p.m. ET).
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Virginia @ North Carolina
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: North Carolina (moved from pick’em to -1)
In the most heavily bet game of the night, sharps and squares (recreational bettors who bet for fun) are on completely different sides of this marquee ACC showdown spread.
The public is heavy on Virginia, which is no surprise. After all, the Cavaliers are 20-2 and ranked fourth overall while North Carolina is a notch below at 19-4 and ranked eighth overall.
This line opened at a pick’em. This means that the oddsmakers see two evenly matched clubs in a true coin-flip game.
Currently 62% of bets are taking UVA, however, the line has moved from a pick’em to UNC -1. The juice on the -1 is up to -115, which signals it may even move further to -1.5.
Why would the line move toward the Tar Heels if the vast majority of the bets are on the Cavs? No, the books aren’t stupid. They’re not in the business of handing our better numbers to Average Joes out of the kindness of their hearts.
The line moved toward UNC because the house got hit hard with wiseguy money on the home team, creating big liability that forced them to adjust the line.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we notices a pair of steam moves on the Tar Heels, with sharps hammering UNC at +1 and again at a pick’em. This overload of big money from respected players pushed UNC to a short favorite.
We haven’t seen a single conflicting bet signal (or buyback) on Virginia.
Wiseguys might also be bypassing UNC on the spread in favor of the moneyline, as it fits the Bet Labs PRO system Moneyline Home Teams (66.6%, +114.49 units since 2005).