Wilson: My Projected Over/Unders for Every Week 9 College Football Game

Wilson: My Projected Over/Unders for Every Week 9 College Football Game article feature image
Credit:

Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brock Purdy

Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern danced into overtime with a score of 10-10. An easy under, right?

Readers of this column were able to jump on the opening under of 53, which eventually closed at 42.5. The collection of events to lose that wager were quite amazing.

Both the Eagles and Chanticleers would score fourth-down touchdowns in the first overtime. A pair of touchdowns followed in double overtime, but the extra 9 points in triple overtime resulted in 57 total points.

College football can be a brutal sport to handicap. Ask North Carolina -3.5 ticket holders, who had no shot to win after going to a fifth and sixth overtime against Virginia Tech where both teams had to start going for 2-point conversions.

This still will not deter us from hitting an under in the future with closing line value of over 10 points. That’s what I try to do in this column — help you beat the closing line on totals before they’re released market-wide on Monday or Tuesday.

This week Circa Sports sports released totals for Wisconsin-Ohio State at 51 and Auburn-LSU at 59.5. One of those has clear value, per the Action Network total projections.

So how do totals get made? Oddsmakers assign a total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.

Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection. Oddsmakers adjust totals based on game results, while our projections rely on a bit of mathematics.

Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on opening point spreads. Our Week 8 projected point spreads are here.

Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.


Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


Projected College Football Totals, Week 9

Notes on Totals for Week 9

  • SMU at Houston on Thursday night has a slight chance of showers. Any precipitation favors the Cougars strength in their rushing attack, while the Mustangs strength of pass explosiveness may be hindered.
  • The early forecast calls for light precipitation in the Carolinas down through Florida on Saturday, while snow may develop for Wyoming.
  • Winds are projected greater than 15 mph at Kansas State, Wyoming, Nebraska, Northern Illinois, and Iowa State per Sports Insights.
  • Iowa State in particular could have gusts over 25 mph as Jack Trice Stadium has a cross wind orientation.

  • UMass and UConn contains the matchup of two teams ranked in the bottom 10 in opponent red zone points per attempt.
  • Ohio State and Wisconsin are ranked No. 2 and No. 4 respectively in opponent red zone points per attempt.
  • Navy and Tulane face off in what should be a high scoring affair, as the Green Wave and Midshipmen both rank top 6 in red zone points per attempt.
  • SMU now sits atop the plays per game leaderboard averaging over 86. Its opponent on Thursday has been on a downward trajectory in plays per game, as Houston is 118th at 65.7 per game.
  • As mentioned before, new Kansas offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon previously led NAIA Bethel in scoring last season, averaging 55 points per game. The Jayhawks score 48 points against Texas and ran 85 plays, 23 more than their season average.
  • Oklahoma has the highest differential in net yards per play at +4.6. Ohio State (+3.8), Alabama (+3.2) and Clemson (+3.1) round out the top four.
  • UTSA remains at the bottom of the board in negative yards per play differential at -3.4. UConn, Bowling Green, UNLV and UTEP each have a yards per play differential of less than -2.