College Football Noon Betting Cheat Sheet: Odds & Angles for Ohio State-Cincinnati, Maryland-Syracuse, More
Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Fields
Your average college football betting Saturday isn’t a set-it-and-forget-it affair. You’re not logging on once, placing some bets, and then logging off for good.
So to combat this eternal struggle, we’ll be putting out some free betting cheat sheets for the noon, 3:30 and night slates, hitting some key insights for games at each time. The full articles are available to Action EDGE members.
There has been a 5.5-point swing on this line, which is pretty unheard of in college football.
Since 2005, there have been 336 college football games with line swings of at least five points. But it hasn’t been profitable to tail that sharp action.
Betting on those swings against the closing line has resulted in victories only 47.3% of the time.
Service academies are usually excellent bets as big underdogs thanks to their triple-option offenses. The market has consistently underestimated that slow, draining pace that limits opponent’s possessions and makes it difficult to cover big spreads.
Will that trend hold up on Saturday when Army travels to Michigan? The Wolverines are a 22-point favorite, and Stuckey sees some value in this game.
This game will come down to whether Cincinnati can move the ball. We know the defense will do its part to stymie Ohio State, but we can also forecast that the Buckeyes will get theirs on offense.
Cincinnati was magical on third down in 2018, ranking seventh nationally at 48.73% conversion. The rest of the top 10 is littered with the best offenses in the country like Alabama, Oklahoma, Boise State and Georgia (and Army, but that’s different). Cincy does not belong in that group, though I do really like Ridder, running back Michael Warren, and where this program is going.
Per SB Nation’s and now-ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Ridder had a stellar 184.8 passer rating on third-and-7 or longer, but just a 138.5 on first downs.
That feels a little fluky.
The public is split on the late morning kickoff, with the slightest of edges going toward Ohio (51% of bets), but the bigger money is coming in on the other side, causing a big line move.
Get the full sharp report here.