College Football Weather: Windy Conditions Impacting Two Late Saturday Games

College Football Weather: Windy Conditions Impacting Two Late Saturday Games article feature image
Credit:

Marco Garcia-USA TODAY Sports.

  • Strong winds were not very prevalent in Week 1, but both Minnesota-Fresno State (10:30 p.m. ET) and Oregon State-Hawaii (12 a.m.) are boasting 15+ mph winds as well as falling over/unders.

After a relatively calm start to the college football season that’s featured just five games with winds of 10+ mph, Week 2 is throwing us a bone. Thirteen games on Saturday are forecasted to have double-digit average wind speeds, including two games with winds of 15+ mph.

These aren’t Hurricane Dorian-esque winds, but they’re certainly strong enough to impact the flight of a football. These forecasts may not entice casual fans very much, but they’re certainly noteworthy when it comes to betting.

Minnesota at Fresno State

  • Odds: Minnesota -3, Total 46
  • 10:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
  • 15 mph wind

Windy games on the west coast are not common, but tonight’s Minnesota-Fresno State game is an exception. With 15 mph winds, the kickers and quarterbacks on the Golden Gophers and Bulldogs will have their hands full.

After opening at 48, sharp and public action on the under has caused the total to drop two full points. Perhaps they caught a glimpse of the forecast, as winds of this caliber have been very kind to under bettors.

For both the NFL and college football, I use 10 mph as the benchmark to consider a game “windy.” Fifteen mph or higher is a whole ‘nother level, though. Data don’t lie:

  • 10+ mph unders: 54.1% under rate
  • 15+ mph unders:  57.1% under rate

Not too shabby.

Oregon State at Hawaii

  • Odds: Hawaii -6.5, Total 77
  • 12 a.m. ET (Facebook)
  • 19 mph wind

If we head even more west to Hawaii, we will find even windier conditions. Hey, it is El Niño season.

You may recall that it was windy in Hawaii in “Week 0”, too, something that did not pan out for under bettors. Historically, Hawaiian winds have resulted in just a 9-15 record to the under — something that may have something to it or just be a small sample fluke.

Like the Fresno State game, this total has also dropped. Though two-thirds of bets are actually on the over, significant sharp action has caused the line to fall from 78.5 to 77. We’ve tracked six bet signals on the under and none on the over.