College football begins its season on Saturday, meaning we have a new slate of Group of 5 conference futures to dive into.
I have three on my radar, including the best offense in the American, the best defense in the MAC and an up-and-coming Mountain West squad led by a second-year head coach.
Let’s dive into my favorite college football futures and NCAAF picks for the Group of 5 in 2025.
College Football Futures, Picks
UTSA to Win American (+450)
UTSA returns nine starters on offense, led by quarterback Owen McCown.
McCown threw for 3,434 yards last season and ranked second among conference quarterbacks with 25 touchdown passes. He improved as last season progressed and should be among the best G5 quarterbacks this year.
Lead back Robert Henry Jr. returns after rushing for over 700 yards and seven touchdowns last year.
Although Brandon High and Kevorian Barnes departed, the Roadrunners replaced them with former four-star recruit A’Marion Peterson from USC and former five-star John Emery Jr. from LSU. Emery was the No. 1 running back recruit in the 2019 class, but he never found his footing due to academic issues and two torn ACLs.
UTSA’s top two receivers (Willie McCoy III, Devin McCuin), top three tight ends and four of the five starting offensive linemen from last year’s team return.
The Roadrunners boasted the AAC’s second-best offense by yards per game last season, and they should improve as McCown does.
All that said, the defense has some questions.
The Roadrunners struggled to defend the pass last season and lost a ton of talent to the portal — not a single full-time starter from last year’s team returns.
However, UTSA has plenty of pieces that saw the field last year who could step up.
Owen Pewee ranked sixth on the team in tackles, and all the projected secondary starters had two or three spot starts.
The Roadrunners also filled a few defensive holes in the transfer portal.
They’ll have to outscore teams, but the Roadrunners should be able to.
UTSA likely gets drummed by Texas A&M to start the year, and it’ll be in a shootout against Texas State.
After that, I expect the Roadrunners to rattle off five straight wins before facing Tulane, East Carolina and Army at home in the Alamodome.
If the defense comes together enough to be league-average, the offense gives UTSA a high-enough ceiling to be the best team in the conference.
Meep Meep.
Pick: UTSA to Win American (+450 · BetMGM)
Buffalo Bulls to Win MAC (+450)
Buffalo lost three key starters from last year’s team in quarterback C.J. Ogbonna, linebacker Shaun Dolac and kicker Upton Bellenfant.
Otherwise, the Bulls return everyone else.
Starting running back Al-Jay Henderson returns after eclipsing 1,000 yards last year. Leading receiver Victor Snow returns, and Nik McMillan is now healthy after suffering a season-ending injury in Week 2 of last season.
Additionally, three offensive line starters from last year’s squad return.
The one new piece in the offense is quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson, an experienced passer in his seventh collegiate season. He’s played under plenty of decent coaches at Penn State, UConn and Kansas State, and his skill set is similar enough to Ogbanna that the transition should be smooth.
The Bulls return nine starters on defense from last year’s squad, led by first-team All-MAC linebacker Red Murdock (156 tackles last season). Murdock and running mate Dion Crawford form arguably the conference’s best linebacker corps.
Buffalo ranked second in the MAC in tackles for loss last season, led by returning edge rusher Kobe Stewart.
The top two cornerbacks — Marquis Cooper and Charles McCartherens — return, alongside a key safety in Solomon Brown.
This is an uber-experienced defense, with all 11 projected starters being upperclassmen.
The special teams could be a disaster. But if the defense is elite and Roberson is decent at quarterback, the Bulls could be the class of the MAC.
The schedule is also relatively easy, as the Bulls avoid Toledo and get both Miami (OH) and Ohio at home.
Pick: Buffalo to Win MAC (+450 · BetMGM)
San Jose State to Win Mountain West (+850)
The Spartans went 7-6 in the first year under Ken Niumatalolo. They lost to the top four finishers in the Mountain West, at Washington State in double overtime, and then South Florida in five overtimes in the Hawaii Bowl.
They juggled the quarterback situation throughout the year, starting the season with Emmett Brown before switching to Walker Eget in Week 8.
Across the final seven games, Eget tossed 13 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, but he only had a 2.1% Turnover Worthy Play (TWP) rate — he threw 10 picks on eight TWPs. Only one starter in the Mountain West had a lower TWP rate. He’s also relatively mobile and was sacked only four times all season.
Superstar receiver Nick Nash departed in the offseason, but the team grabbed wide receivers from Purdue, Arizona, Cal and Sacramento State to help fill the void and spread the ball around in the run-and-shoot offense.
The top three running backs from last season all return, led by Floyd Chalk IV, who racked up 721 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. He’ll be running behind a big offensive line that returns three starters.
San Jose State’s defense was middling last season. But seven starters return for this year, including the entire front seven led by Jordan Pollard and Taniela Latu in the middle alongside Gafa Faga up front. The rush defense was strong last year and should be again this season.
Isiah Revis is a terrific safety, but the rest of the secondary will need to be rebuilt, as both of last season’s starting cornerbacks transferred to the Power 4.
In Niumatalolo’s first season at Navy, the Midshipmen went 8-5 before jumping to 10-4 in the second year. We could see a similar jump for San Jose.
The schedule is set up great. They avoid Boise State and UNLV while getting Fresno State and Air Force at home. They play the projected bottom six teams in the conference.
Pick: San Jose State to Win Mountain West (+850 · BetMGM)
