Rovell: Sportsbooks Need Michigan To Cover in Happy Valley
Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports.
Welcome to Week 8, which feels a little bit like the "calm before the storm."
Next Saturday is loaded with huge games like Auburn-LSU, Wisconsin-Ohio State and Notre Dame-Michigan, but that doesn't mean there aren't some season-defining matchups on today's slate.
And, hell, when it comes to betting, every College Football Saturday is beautiful in its own way.
Michigan-Penn State Market Watch
6:25 p.m. ET
It should be quite the scene in Happy Valley tonight. No. 7 Penn State is hosting a "White Out" for its game against Big Ten rival Michigan.
After opening at -7.5, Penn State spent most of the week as 9-point favorites before ticking down to -7.5 as we approach kickoff. How much of a shift is that? Well, when The Golden Nugget posted their "Game of the Year" line for this matchup it was Michigan -4.
In most cases, bettors would be all over Michigan catching over a touchdown in this matchup, but the public's perception of these two teams couldn't be further apart.
Penn State is coming off a tough win — and cover — on the road in Iowa while Michigan was last seen coming dangerously close to blowing a 28-point lead against Illinois. This is the same Wolverines team that needed overtime to beat Army and got blown out by Wisconsin.
With that context, it's easy to see why the public is backing the home team tonight. According to our data, Penn State is receiving 64% of the bets and money on Saturday night.
"We're going to need Michigan tonight," Tony DiTomasso of CG Technology told us earlier this morning.
The Shocker in Champaign
3:25 p.m. ET
Illinois, which closed as a 28.5-point underdog against Wisconsin on Saturday, pulled off the biggest Big Ten upset of the past 25 years, winning on a field goal as time expired.
William Hill, which has more sportsbooks around the country than any other operator, only took $423 worth of bets on the Illini moneyline (+2500). The book paid out $10,575 in total on those wagers.
In total, 74% of the money wagered on the spread at William Hill was on the Badgers.
Funny enough, William Hill took a $100 bet on Wisconsin moneyline. It would have profited just $1.
Public Pokes
It seems like everybody and their mother is on Oklahoma State against No. 18 Baylor today.
Even though the Bears are undefeated, they are 5-point underdogs in Stillwater today and bettors are rolling with the Pokes.
Oklahoma State is getting 92% of the money at both William Hill and DraftKings and our market-wide data reports that 80% of the bets are on the home favorite.
Five-Figure Bet Comes in on UNC
11:40 a.m. ET, Saturday
PointsBet reports they just took a $57,500 bet on UNC as 3.5-point favorites over Virginia Tech. The bet would pay out $50,025.
Sharps and Squares on Different Sides of South Carolina vs. Florida
Saturday, 10:45 a.m. ET
Earlier this morning we reported about how the public was all over Florida as 4.5-point road favorites against South Carolina. We've tracked over 15,000 bets on this game and 79% of the tickets are currently on the Gators.
That type of split usually means that most sportsbooks will need South Carolina, but that isn't the case at Circa Sportsbook, according to bookmaker Matt Lindeman. Lindeman said his shop needs Florida to cover, because of sharp money on the Gamecocks.
Matt Chaprales at PointsBet said they've taken some public action on the South Carolina moneyline after the Gamecocks pulled the huge upset in Athens.
"Public bettors are going back to the well after last week," Chaprales said. "Sixty-five percent of the bets for that market are on the South Carolina moneyline, but the money is an even split which means that the heavier bets are on Florida to win."
Lindeman also said they'll be rooting for Georgia to cover a 23.5-point spread against Kentucky as smart money has come in on the Wildcats.
Books Rooting for Illinois vs. Wisconsin
10:35 a.m. ET
This season Circa Sportsbook has become the market-setter for college football. Bookmaker Matt Lindeman posts spreads and over/unders every Sunday afternoon, and the action commences immediately. That also means the liability can build up, especially on big underdogs where the spread has moved.
Lindeman says Illinois fits that bill on Saturday. After opening this line at Wisconsin -25, Circa now has it posted at Wisconsin -31.
Rutgers Watch
Saturday, 9:50 a.m. ET
To most college football fans, the story this year has been the dominance displayed by Alabama, LSU, Ohio State and Oklahoma. But to those inside the sports betting community, the team that's stolen the headlines the past two weeks has been Rutgers.
Last week, the infamous bettor "Duffel Bag Boy" went around Vegas fading the Scarlet Knights as 28-point underdogs on the road in Indiana. It sounds like he's back.
According to William Hill's Nick Bogdanovich, they need Rutgers, which is a 29-point underdog at home against Minnesota, the most right now. "Biggest bet so far is a $60,000 two-team parlay with Ohio State and Minnesota."
We heard of at least one other sportsbook that took that same parlay last night.
Ohio State easily beat the number against Northwestern last night, so that means that a Minnesota cover against Rutgers would return this bettor $288,000.
Liabilities
Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET
The game with the most action, at least in terms of total tickets, this morning is Florida (-4.5) at South Carolina. The Gamecocks are coming off a huge upset against Georgia, so you'd think bettors would be eager to take the points with South Carolina. Not so fast.
"We're definitely going to need to beat Florida," CG Technology's Tony DiTomasso said. "The Gators are one of the biggest fan sides of the day."
According to our data, 81% of the tickets are on Florida to cover against the Gators.
Another game generating a ton of action is undefeated Baylor on the road against Oklahoma State. The Pokes are 4-point home favorites over the 18th-ranked Bears and the public is riding with Mike Gundy and company. According to Sports Insights, 80% of the bets are on the Cowboys.
Six-Figures on the First Half
Friday night
The first huge bet of Week 8 cashed without much of a sweat.
CG Technology just reported that they took a $400,000 bet on the Ohio State first-half moneyline (-2000) against Northwestern. The Buckeyes cruised, 31-3, in the first half, earning the deep-pocketed bettor a $20,000 payday.
That isn't the only big bet on the Buckeyes tonight, either. Covers' Patrick Everson noted that a punter has put a pair of five-figure, two-team parlays on the Ohio State University (at -28 and -28.5) and Minnesota. The two parlays, which were placed at MGM and William Hill, totaled $110,000 and would return roughly $288,000 if both teams cover.
Friday Night Lights
This week's college football slate features few marquee games. That isn't the case next week, so long as teams like Ohio State, LSU, Wisconsin and Auburn don't get caught sleeping.
With a showdown with Wisconsin on deck, Ohio State will head to Evanston on Friday night to take on Northwestern as 27-point road favorites. Bettors aren't afraid of the Buckeyes getting caught looking ahead to Wisky as 76% of the tickets are on Ohio State.
Ohio State was holding as 28-point favorites until Thursday when it became clear that the Buckeyes have some significant injuries. Mike linebacker Barrett Browning is out as is Josh Alabi, who has played left and right tackle. Current left tackle Thacker Munford is a game time decision.
Here's a quick market snapshot for Friday night's showdown:
- 73% of money at PointsBet on Ohio State
- 81% of money at DraftKings on Ohio State
- 84% of money at William Hill on Ohio State
And here's a stat to top it off. Since 2005, Ohio State is 35-27 ATS when it is at least a three-touchdown favorite.
Lopsided Action
The most popular team this week at the 100-plus William Hill sportsbooks, as judged by lopsided money, is UCF vs. East Carolina. As of Friday morning, 98% of the money is on the Golden Knights to cover as 33-point favorites!
UCF hasn’t covered for three straight games, which a rare occurrence. Since 2017, UCF is 20-11-1 (64.5%) against the spread (ATS). Only three teams in FBS have a better percentage — Fresno State (71%), UAB (68.8%) and Iowa State (65.6%).
Bad sign? In last three seasons, UCF has been favorites of at least 33 points five times. They are 1-4 ATS.
Someone Really Believes in Nevada
Usually when we hear of big bets they follow a similar script — a favorite that a bettor really believes in. Not today. A player at FanDuel Sportsbook in the Meadowlands put down $7,000 on Nevada as +875 underdogs against Utah State.
The bettor would net $61,250 if the Wolfpack pull off the outright upset over the Aggies, who are 21-point favorites on Saturday night.
No Dawgs
Here at The Action Network my spirit animal is Evan Abrams. We equally love math, stats and old newspapers. Well, Evan came up with a great one after the Georgia loss that’s worth some more run.
Georgia (-20.5) falls at home to South Carolina‼️
Georgia had won 58 consecutive games straight up as a 20-pt favorite or higher… 😱
Their last loss❓
📅 Oct. 15, 1994
Vanderbilt (+20) beat Georgia, 43-30…“First in SATs, last in the SEC” (via @AJC) pic.twitter.com/eG7aAburnM
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 12, 2019
No Respect
South Carolina seems to be getting no respect for its win over Georgia last week, as 75% of the money at PointsBet is on Florida as a 5-point road favorite. The Gators have taken 87% of the money at DraftKings.
The Team Breaking Vegas' Power Ratings
It’s Week 8 in the college football season and Matt Lindeman thinks he is finally in a good position.
The bookmaker at Circa Sports, which has been setting the college football market by posting lines on Sunday, has stuck his neck out a bit, willing to get taken for a ride on a potentially bad line.
“I’ve been able to add a few wrinkles and make adjustments,” Lindeman said. “I’m pretty confident with what we have.”
Except when it comes to Rutgers, of course.
“It’s just hard to figure out how bad they really are,” he said.
Rutgers is one of four teams (UConn, Kent State, UMass are the others) this season that have twice failed to cover 27.5-point spreads as the underdog.
Despite going up against Florida-LSU, Alabama-Texas A&M and Oklahoma-Texas, the showdown between Rutgers and Indiana generated the biggest handle across Vegas last week. There were at least 12 bets of $50,000 or more against Rutgers, some of them coming from the infamous “Duffel Bag Boy.”
Indiana won, 35-0. Circa took two bets totaling $120,000 on Indiana that netted a total of $100,000.
Rutgers is a 29-point home underdog this Saturday against Minnesota.
“I was going to put them at +23.5 and I got ignored and we opened at +28.5,” Lindeman said.
Saturday will be the 12th time that Rutgers is a dog of at least 27.5 points in the last four years (they’re 5-6 ATS in those games). And with Ohio State and Penn State coming in November, there’s two more chances that the “Dolphins of the NCAA” will drive bookmakers nuts.
“Rutgers screwed up our power ratings on Maryland because it was impressed by how [Maryland] played in that game,” Lindeman said.
Michigan-Penn State
The Week 8 slate is lacking in marquee matchups but there is a pretender-or-contender showdown in the Big Ten on Saturday night.
Penn State is still undefeated after squeezing out a win on the road at Iowa, but the skeptics are still out there, wondering if this Nittany Lion is really a Paper Tiger.
Lindeman was one expert who thought James Franklin's team was overrated coming into the season, but admitted he's eased up on them after the win in Kinnick.
As for the Wolverines, who knows. Michigan still owns a 5-1 record and has a very, very outside chance of making the College Football Playoff, but the Wolverines are 2-4 Against the Spread and haven't looked any bit a contender this season.
The proof is in the pudding as the "Game of the Year" line for this matchup — which opened in May at the Golden Nugget — was Michigan -4. The Wolverines are currently 9-point underdogs in Happy Valley.
It's still very early in the betting cycle, but — according to Sports Insights — Michigan-Penn State is currently Saturday's second-most bet game, behind only Oregon at Washington, and 56% of bettors are fading the Wolverines despite the large-by-their-standards spread.
Georgia Tank
Georgia Tech failed to cover the spread for its eighth-straight game this past week losing by 18 to Duke. No one in college has a worse streak.
The two other teams that are 0-6 ATS this year? Vanderbilt and Akron.
“They out-gained Temple and still didn’t cover the spread!” Lindeman said.
The Dolphins were 0-5 against the spread. That was until they got the Redskins +3.5. Is that this week for the Yellow Jackets? They are 18-point dogs against Miami and 81% of the money at Will Hill is on GT and 86% of the money at DraftKings.
Notable Moves
The lines that moved substantively at Circa since their Sunday open:
- NC State moved from -1.5 to -3.5 against Boston College with Eagles' quarterback Anthony Brown ruled out for the season.
- Boise State went from -1.5 to -6.5 on questions over the health of BYU's quarterbacks.
- Indiana moved from from -3.5 to -5.5 over Maryland after the Terps were thrashed by an injury-ravaged Purdue team.
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