Indiana hit double digits in the win column for the first time in program history last season. The basketball school instantly became a threat on the gridiron when it yanked Curt Cignetti off the coaching carousel from James Madison.
A rags-to-riches story like that doesn’t happen all that often in college football, but there is a strong likelihood that one of the 12 playoff teams this season will start its 2025 campaign outside of the AP Top 25, just as IU did last fall.
Below, I have listed three teams that could shock the college football world this season. Let's take a look at my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the 2025-26 College Football Playoff.
Auburn Tigers
+400 to Make CFP
It’s make-or-break time for Hugh Freeze.
The handsomely-paid coach is off to an 11-14 start on The Plains. But now he has his quarterback and a team loaded with experience.
Jackson Arnold bottomed out in Norman last season behind a leaky offensive line, injured playmakers and suspect play-calling. Arnold still flashed five-star upside and has the mobility to become the next star quarterback on Freeze’s lengthy resume.
He turned Chad Kelly and Malik Willis into college stars, and he has the skill-position talent on hand to fully unlock Arnold’s potential.
While the schedule features the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry against Georgia, the Tigers avoid LSU, Ole Miss and Texas. Auburn has gone from paper tiger to title contender before, so I wouldn’t put it past it this fall.
Utah Utes
+450 to Make CFP
As a brand, I know what I’m getting in Utah football: Elite coaching and a salty defense.
Last season, the Utes had a negative turnover margin for the first time in six seasons, and they dealt with poor quarterback play due to Cam Rising’s absence.
They’re the perfect bounce-back candidate because they return a ton of production (17th), they found an electric playmaker to run their offense in Devon Dampier, and they brought his former OC with him to eliminate a schematic learning curve.
Dampier ran for over 1,100 yards and 19 touchdowns at New Mexico and will now be playing behind the most experienced line in the Big 12.
Speaking of the Big 12, Arizona State was picked to finish last in the 16-team league and proceeded to win it all in 2024. The wide-open nature of the league continues this season with tremendous coaching continuity across the league and veteran quarterbacks suiting up for 10 programs.
Luckily for Utah, three of its four most challenging conference opponents must come to Salt Lake City.
Iowa Hawkeyes
+900 to Make CFP
I’ve been searching for a good Mark Gronowski comp for weeks, and I think I’ve found it.
Russell Wilson was an über-efficient dual-threat passer, and when he transferred to Wisconsi,n he elevated the Badgers’ ball-control offense to previously unseen heights back in 2011.
Gronowski possesses a similar skill set, and while the ball doesn’t fly out of his hand in the exact same way, I believe he’ll be such an efficient field general that Iowa’s offense will crack the top 40 for the first time in five years.
Pairing a slightly above-average offense with Iowa’s defense and special teams is a recipe for massive success.
The Hawkeyes avoid Ohio State and draw Oregon and Penn State in Iowa City. If they find a way to upset either the Ducks or Nittany Lions, they’ll be a serious CFP threat.
