Florida at Texas A&M Odds & Pick: Back the Golden Gators on the Goal Line (Saturday, Oct. 10)
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Trask.
- Florida travels to College Station to take on Texas A&M for a top-25 SEC matchup on Saturday.
- The Gators boast one of the top QB-TE connections in the country in Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts and could attack a weaker Aggie defense.
- Collin Wilson breaks down the game and shares his betting pick with updated odds below.
Florida at Texas A&M Betting Odds
|Florida Odds||-5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Texas A&M Odds||+5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-226/+180 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||59.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||12:00 p.m. ET|
Texas A&M could ill afford mistakes against Alabama in Week 5, as the Aggies have never been built with the offensive explosiveness to keep stride. Missed field goals, a turnover on downs and a pick-six before halftime all but guaranteed Texas A&M would not be able to come back against one of college football’s best teams.
While the debate lingers on whether or not Kellen Mond’s time as the Aggies starter may be coming to an end, the defense is not without blame. Texas A&M ranks 68th in defensive passing success rate and 64th in defensive finishing drives. In other words, teams can move the ball through the air and score in the red zone against Jimbo Fisher’s team.
The Florida Gators travel to College Station with one of the best pass-catch duos in the country in quarterback Kyle Trask and tight end Kyle Pitts. Trask has targeted Pitts 18 times through two games, resulting in 12 receptions for six touchdowns. Pitts has added 72 yards after the catch and has been found on six play-action passes.
Texas A&M has not shown the ability to cover receivers in games against Vanderbilt and Alabama. The Aggies’ rush defense has held steady, but Florida throws the ball 63% of the time out of 11 and 21 personnel.
If there’s an area of weakness for the Gators, it’s their rush defense. Currently sitting at 72nd in success rate against the run, Florida may be a victim on the analytics side to an Ole Miss offense that threw up 29 first downs in Week 4. This Texas A&M offense does not have the offensive firepower of Ole Miss.
There’s just two weeks of data for SEC play, but the biggest discrepancy between these teams is finishing drives. Specifically, Florida is averaging 5.76 points per trip past the opponent’s 40-yard line. That’s good enough to rank second in the country with the limited data. Texas A&M is on the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking 67th and averaging 2.42 points per trip inside the 40.
The Bet: Florida -6.5 or better.