Mississippi State at Kentucky Odds & Pick: Fade the Wildcats Against the Bulldogs (Saturday, Oct. 10)
UK Athletics/Collegiate Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Kelvin Joseph.
- Mississippi State will head to Lexington on Saturday to take on Kentucky in an SEC showdown at 7:30 p.m. ET.
- Mike Leach and Company were riding high after a victory over the defending national champions in Week 1 before being bested by a conference bottomfeeder in Week 2.
- Collin Wilson still sees value on the Bulldogs, though, and he explains why below.
Mississippi State at Kentucky Betting Odds
|Mississippi State Odds||+3.5 [BET NOW]|
|Kentucky Odds||-3.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+140/-167 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||57.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET|
As stated in last week’s triumphant call of Arkansas to win outright against Mississippi State, defending the air raid is not rocket science. The goal is to run a 3-3-5, dropping eight into coverage and generating pressure with defensive ends. Kentucky has the 3-3-5 part licked, running primarily out of that formation, along with the 3-4-4 for the 2020 season. The issue with the Wildcat defense has been a lack of execution.
Kentucky has been at the bottom of the FBS ranks in most defensive categories. Ranking 74th in defensive passing success rate isn’t a formula for success against a Mike Leach offense. With a rank of 73rd in finishing drives, it seems everyone receives a score in Kentucky territory. The Wildcats have had 10 opponent trips to the red zone, with eight resulting in a touchdown.
Kentucky stayed in the game against Ole Miss because of the rushing game. Running for 408 yards at 7.3 yards per rush is a monstrous day that ended in defeat for the Wildcats. Mississippi State presents a tougher challenge for Kentucky, as the Bulldogs have allowed just four runs over 10 yards this season. If the Kentucky ground attack is negated on offense, this could be a long evening for the Wildcats as Mike Leach attempts to regroup after his first SEC loss.
The Bet: Mississippi State +2.5.