Limited sample sizes, recency bias and a lack of imagination often lead the public to over-inflate teams with numbers next to their school names.
I’ve zeroed in on a pair of ranked teams that I believe are currently overrated and provide a way for you to fade them.
Let's dive into the most recent college football AP Top 25 Poll and my take on two overrated teams from the most recent rankings that dropped this week.
6
Georgia Bulldogs
Head coach Kirby Smart’s team has given up all of 13 points this season. They rank eighth in total defense and grade out exceptionally well in terms of tackling (ninth) and run defense (sixth), according to Pro Football Focus.
But we knew coming into the season that Georgia’s defense had the potential to be special, especially against Marshall and Austin Peay early in the season. Its dominance on that side of the ball was expected.
The bigger question mark entering the season was an offense tasked with replacing 59% of its production from the previous year.
The Stetson Bennett-Todd Monken days seem like a distant memory at this point. During Georgia’s back-to-back national title run, it had speed to burn on the perimeter, a deep running back room and special weapons like Brock Bowers to build a game plan around.
Last year, the receiving corps struggled with drops, and Carson Beck continually forced the football in key situations. With Beck off to Miami, there's a ton of pressure on play-caller Mike Bobo and starting quarterback Gunner Stockton to get things right.
Through two games, the offense looks fine, but that’s not that’s going to cut it once this schedule ramps up.
The Bulldogs draw four ranked opponents in their next five games, and it still appears that they’re not 100% confident in who they want to be offensively.
Stockton’s meager average depth of target of 5.1 yards (62nd) is troubling because they won’t be able to dink and dunk their way downfield in SEC play. No Power Four quarterback with two starts under their belt in 2025 has a lower aDOT.
He has yet to make a Big-Time Throw, according to PFF, and much of that can be laid at Bobo’s feet.
The running game grades out well, but I don’t put any stock in what they’ve accomplished against the defensive fronts of Marshall and Austin Peay.
I have enough concerns about Stockton, Georgia's offensive line in pass protection and Bobo that I’ll be playing Tennessee +4.5 on Saturday.
14
Iowa State Cyclones
Matt Campbell’s team has squeezed out a pair of ranked victories already this season, besting Kansas State and in-state rival Iowa by three points each.
Iowa State’s defense was tasked with replacing a handful of starters under defensive coordinator Jon Heacock. And aside from struggling with Avery Johnson and Mark Gronowski’s legs, the defense hasn’t let it down yet this season.
But under the hood, that unit is leaking oil. The pass rush ranks 114th, per PFF. This lack of pressure is also impacting its coverage grades (91st).
In the deep Big 12, where seemingly every team has a difference-maker at quarterback, these two interconnected issues on defense are destined to bite ISU.
On the offensive side of things, Rocco Becht continues to elevate his level of play. He pushes the ball downfield (9.8 aDOT) without putting it in harm’s way. In fact, he hold a 5:1 Big-Time Throw to Turnover-Worthy Play ratio.
But his receiving corps has underwhelmed thus far. Outside of Brett Eskildsen and his seven catches for 162 yards, the rest of his receiving room has combined for just 12 receptions and 117 yards through three games.
In three weeks, the Cyclones will draw a rejuvenated Arizona team at home. If early returns are any indication, I’ll take the points with the Wildcats, who more than likely will be able to draw the Cyclones into an old-school Big 12 shootout.
Any number above a touchdown is a play on the 'Cats.
