Week 3 of the college football season is here, which means there's plenty of bets to be made across the board.
Our Group of 5 experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, have come through with their top moneyline underdog plays that they threw into a parlay.
First, we'll start with a home 'dog in a Sun Belt/American matchup before heading to South Florida for the Shula Bowl between FAU and FIU.
Let's take a look at our college football picks and NCAAF predictions in our Group of 5 moneyline underdog parlay for Week 3.
Troy ML +160 vs. Memphis
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | -190 |
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | +160 |
By Joshua Nunn
I’m taking Troy on the moneyline against Memphis this week.
The Trojans faced a much tougher schedule thus far, going toe-to-toe with a stronger FCS opponent in Nicholls, and just last week pushed Clemson all the way to the wire.
They led, 16-3, at the half, and it was still a tight 20-16 game well into the fourth quarter. And keep in mind, they missed a field goal as time expired in that first half, leaving points on the board.
Still, the way Troy locked down Clemson’s offense really impressed me.
Now, this Troy-Memphis matchup means a whole lot more to the Trojans than the Tigers. Last year, Troy was right there until quarterback Goose Crowder went down. Now, he’s back and looked sharp last week, completing 19-of-31 passes for 223 yards and a touchdown. His three picks hurt, but it was a major step up in competition.
The Trojans have legitimate weapons at receiver in Tray Taylor and Ethan Conner, and if they start getting Rara Thomas more involved, their passing game could really test Memphis’ secondary.
On defense, Troy has been stout against the run, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. It has been solid on third down as well.
Memphis leans heavily on the run, trying to get its backs going downhill and using play action or quarterback power to open things up.
But I don’t see Troy letting that happen. It'll keep the ground game in check, which puts the pressure squarely on Memphis QB Brendon Lewis. He’s facing a much tougher challenge this week than he did against Chattanooga or Georgia State.
Troy wants this one badly. With Crowder healthy and playing well, and their defense locking things down, I expect the Trojans to come away with the win at home.
Florida Atlantic +120 vs. FIU
| Florida Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
FAU visits FIU on Saturday, but the Owls have owned this series. They've won seven straight Shula Bowls by an average margin of 30 points per game over that stretch.
They’ve just flat-out walked over the Panthers, and so far, only one offense has shown any spark.
FAU stumbled out of the gate with a rough opener against Maryland that included four interceptions from quarterback Caden Veltkamp. But Veltkamp and the Owls bounced back big time, as their signal-caller threw five touchdown passes against Florida A&M.
Their passing game is where the life is, and it’s going to shine here again. Can FIU match that?
Panthers quarterback Keyone Jenkins came in as the Preseason Offensive Player of the Year in Conference USA. However, he has yet to throw a touchdown, posting two rushing touchdowns on the season.
The offense under head coach Willie Simmons relies a lot on dink-and-dunk passing, which puts FIU in a bunch of third-down situations. That’s asking for trouble because FAU’s third-down defense has been stout. It's been borderline top-50 nationally, holding opponents to a 30% conversion rate. That’s likely where this game will be decided.
Expect FIU to have some empty drives.
Meanwhile, FAU's offense can be dangerous, especially if Veltkamp isn’t under constant pressure like he was against Maryland.
When he’s comfortable, he picks defenses apart, spreading passes out to six or seven different receivers. It’s not just Easton Messer, who was supposed to be the top receiver heading into the season. The supporting cast has stepped up too through two weeks.
Now, Pitbull Stadium can get noisy. The 305 “Dalé” vibe definitely adds an edge. But this isn't a special theme night or anything. In fact, they're just giving out Shula Bowl rally towels. That’s not going to be enough to lift the Panthers.
I’m taking FAU as a slight underdog at +120. They have some momentum on offense, a tough third-down defense, and history on their side. FIU’s going to have to find some offense to snap this Owls streak, but I don’t see that happening this time around.
