Wicked Weather Forecast Pointing to Northern Illinois vs. Toledo Over/Under Value
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
- Cold temperatures are sweeping the nation and tonight's Northern Illinois-Toledo game (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2) is no exception.
- Using The Action Network's betting tools, we break down how tonight's conditions will impact the game.
Football every day of the week, isn't it a joy? I reckon some of you are just dying to find a reason to bet on these midweek MACtion games, but you shouldn't bet on a game just because it's on TV and you have nothing better to do. You should bet on a game if you have an edge and can find some value, though.
Tonight's Northern Illinois-Toledo game does have value, at least if history has something to say about it. And you know what they say — history repeats itself.
On the far western banks of Lake Erie, there's going to be some cold folks inside Toledo's Glass Bowl. The temperature at the 8 p.m. ET kickoff will be sitting at 26 degrees, which may have you thinking to yourself, "Ah, let me hammer the under!"
Hold your horses, partner.
Cold temperatures on their own are not actually a reason to auto-bet the under. Though temps of 32 degrees and below do slightly favor the under (51.4% cover rate), it's not enough to profit.
But, add in a little wind and you have a very good reason to bet the under. And yes, the 12 mph winds tonight are enough to impact this game in a large way …
Games with double-digit wind speeds on their own have gone under 54.1% of the time per Bet Labs. Games with freezing temps have gone under 51.4% of the time. Add the two elements together and … boom — nearly a 70% cover rate. Furthermore, these games have gone under by more than four points on average (that's including the losses).
The sample size isn't large, but the extremely high winning percentage alleviates my worries about that. Even with regression, there's no reason to believe this would not remain a profitable system over the long run.
Odds as of Wednesday at 8 a.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.
Tonight's game opened with an over/under of 55 and can now be found between 52.5 and 53.5.
There will likely only be a handful of games this year with conditions like this and you better believe I'll be taking the under in every one of them. So bundle up, kick back and take part in everyone's favorite pastime — rooting for no scoring.
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