The No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) host the No. 6 Oregon Ducks (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) in a top-10 Big Ten battle on Saturday night. The game is set to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Penn State enters this game as a -3.5 favorite and finds itself coming off a bye one week after dismantling FIU by a score of 52-6.
Oregon, meanwhile, comes in as a +3.5 underdog and most recently demolished Oregon State, 41-7, in the in-state rivalry formerly known as the Civil War.
With a top-10 clash ahead, let's dive into the Penn State vs. Oregon odds and our college football picks for this Week 5 matchup on Saturday, Sept. 27.
Penn State vs. Oregon Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
By Pete Ruden
This could be one of the best college football games of the year.
These teams have met only five times in the history of the sport, with Penn State holding a 3-2 edge. However, Oregon came through to topple Penn State, 45-37, in the Big Ten Championship last season.
The Ducks have been dominant this season, with their smallest margin of victory coming by 20 points against Northwestern.
But this Penn State team is different.
The Nittany Lions boast arguably the best 1-2 punch in the backfield in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and Drew Allar has plenty of talent to supplement them.
Plus, Penn State has two of the top coordinators in the country in Andy Kotelnicki on offense and Jim Knowles on defense.
Now, the question is: Can James Franklin win a big game?
Franklin has been notorious for coming up short in these spots, boasting a 4-20 record against top-10 teams and a 1-15 mark against top-five opponents.
Luckily for him, the Nittany Lions find themselves in a much better situational spot coming off a bye, while the Ducks have to head east for a "White Out" game in Happy Valley just one week after an in-state rivalry game.
Will that help Franklin and Penn State get it done? We polled 10 of our college football writers to get their takes on Saturday's spread and over/under, so let's dive in.
Penn State vs. Oregon Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Penn State -3.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff figures for this one to be a really good game, with varying opinions on who will cover. The majority of our group sides with Penn State to cover the -3.5, and I agree with that notion.
By now, we all know that “Small Game James” knows the number, and Penn State is 0-3 ATS. We know they're not happy about some of the laissez-faire play and late-game situational happenings that have played out to get them to this point.
We also really don't have good data points on either one of these teams, given the lack of competition played and how that competition will in no way mimic Saturday night.
So, I look at the spot for Penn State.
First, we have a revenge play angle for how last year’s Big Ten Championship game played out.
Plus, Oregon has to travel across the country and step into a night game in Happy Valley with a “White Out” on top of it. The circumstances completely favor Penn State to put their best foot forward here, with the Nittany Lions coming off the bye week.
I would consider this a “must-win” when you look at the totality of the James Franklin era at Penn State. If he can't win this game, he may never be able to do it.
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar hasn’t wowed anyone with his play, completing 65% of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception. But Penn State has still won every game this season by at least 34 points.
I do think Penn State will be able to get the ground game going with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who have combined for 452 yards and eight rushing touchdowns.
We should see play-action off that, and the tight ends should be able to create in the pass game.
On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s defense is elite and has done nothing to detract from what we've expected.
I look to defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who schemed brilliantly in the rematch against Oregon when he was at Ohio State last season, completely putting the Ducks in a meat grinder with no way out.
I don't think the Ducks are going to waltz in here and roll out the offense we've seen in the previous four weeks. This is going to be a really tough spot.
Penn State vs. Oregon Over/Under Pick
Over 52.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 52.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 52.5
Not even a patented Penn State "White Out" could keep the Action staff off the over between the Ducks and Nittany Lions.
Oregon’s offense is averaging 8.1 yards per play this season, good for third nationally.
Offensive coordinator Will Stein is one of the best in the country, and we may very well see the Ducks’ fastball Saturday in Happy Valley.
After all, last year’s battle between Oregon and Penn State was a barn burner. Oregon’s offense found big plays behind the secondary, with returning wide receiver Kenyon Sadiq catching two of the four touchdown passes through the air.
The offensive game plan probably won’t be as wide open as last year’s game, but look for Dante Moore to challenge Penn State’s defensive backs down the field when he gets his shots.
Oregon likes to set up deep balls for guys like Malik Benson and Dakorien Moore once it establishes the ground game, which is piling up a gaudy 6.8 yards per rush this season.
Meanwhile, Penn State OC Andy Kotelnicki may be in his bag Saturday if the offense can run effectively again. Both Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen showed out for Penn State’s backfield last season, topping the century mark against the Ducks.
Oregon and Penn State likely won’t flirt with 82 more combined points on Saturday, but our staff feels the number’s too low for two competent offenses that can create a ton of big plays.
Penn State vs. Oregon Player Prop Pick
Kaytron Allen Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
By Alex Hinton
In last year’s Big Ten Championship, Penn State ran for 297 yards in a loss.
Its dynamic running back duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 229 yards of that total.
This season, they're combining for 151 rushing yards per game, and you could certainly make the case that the duo has been a bit underwhelming given both their talent level and the schedule they’ve faced.
However, Allen is averaging eight yards per carry, while Singleton comes in at 4.4 this season. Allen has also run for 80 yards in each of his last two games. Dating back to last season, he has run for 70 yards in 11 of his past 18 games.
If Oregon has a weakness this season, it may be its run defense.
It's tied for 58th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and gave up 178 rushing yards in its last road game at Northwestern. The Wildcats made it an emphasis to run the ball to keep Dante Moore and Oregon’s high-powered offense off the field.
With two talented backs and a veteran offensive line, Penn State may go with a similar tactic, particularly given the success it had on the ground in last year’s matchup.
Over the last few years, Allen and Singleton’s carries have been distributed practically evenly, and Singleton holds a seven-carry edge coming into this matchup. However, I'm going with Allen because he has been more efficient thus far.
