Indiana may have the No. 1 next to its name, but the college football world remains skeptical. That’s the only explanation for this point spread in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
I'll break down one of the biggest CFP quarterfinal games and make a pick below.
With that said, let's take a look at the Alabama vs. Indiana odds and my College Football Playoff predictions for Alabama vs. Indiana in the CFP quarterfinals.
Alabama vs Indiana Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
As someone who's a bit of a history buff when it comes to college football, I can tell you that this spread is fairly unprecedented.
The last time the top-ranked team in the country faced an opponent ranked ninth or lower in a bowl game as a favorite of less than a full touchdown was the Sugar Bowl… in 1962.
The Alabama Crimson Tide closed as a 6.5-point favorite over the Arkansas Razorbacks. In a defensive struggle, Alabama outlasted Arkansas, 10-3, winning outright and covering the spread.
The country hadn’t come to grips with the fact that Alabama was a juggernaut under head coach Bear Bryant. This was his first of six national titles in Tuscaloosa. And moving forward, oddsmakers prohibitively priced Bryant’s teams.
If you’re trying to figure out where we are in the Curt Cignetti timeline, we’re still in that “prove it” area. This explains why a deeply flawed, three-loss team like Alabama is catching less than a touchdown in the Rose Bowl against the mighty Indiana Hoosiers.
Calling IU mighty just two years ago was a cheap punchline. This is the same Indiana outfit that has won exactly one bowl game since 1989, and that postseason exhibition was so prestigious it has changed names, I kid you not, 11 times (Copper Bowl).
The Hoosiers don’t just deserve more respect in the market; they’ve earned it. Cignetti’s squad ran the table in the Big Ten, beat Oregon in Autzen, and Ohio State in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title.
The IU offense is perfectly balanced, finishing first in Rushing Success Rate and second in Passing Success Rate with Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza running the show.
The Hoosier defense just held Ohio State 27 points below its season average and entered the CFP with the most Havoc-producing defense in the sport.
Pick a defensive stat, and Indiana is likely inside the top 10.
That’s bad news for a one-dimensional Alabama offense. The Crimson Tide's run game has fallen off a cliff, and even the return of running back Jam Miller couldn’t right the ship.
After years of game-breaking running backs lining up in the Alabama backfield, the Tide are now 110th in rushing explosives this season.
With defenses putting the Alabama running game in a box, quarterback Ty Simpson has been under fire. Alabama’s QB1 has taken 10 sacks in the past three games while feeling pressure on 41% of his dropbacks over that stretch.
So, why the sudden love for Alabama as a 'dog? It just pulled off an impressive comeback win in Norman in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The Tide erased a 17-0 deficit, albeit with massive help from the Sooners.
The OU special teams came unglued at the worst possible time, allowing a blocked punt, while their Lou Groza Award-winning placekicker missed a pair of field goals.
And with a chance to break the game wide open before halftime, a miscommunication between John Mateer and Keontez Lewis resulted in a game-changing pick-six for Alabama’s Zabien Brown.
That’s a handful of high-leverage plays breaking in favor of Alabama.
The Tide pulled a rabbit out of their hat on Friday night, which is why this number is still available below the key number of seven.
I wouldn’t hesitate to grab IU -6.5 because I believe we’ll look back at Indiana’s 2025 and wonder why oddsmakers were so slow to adapt to the fact that Indiana isn’t a party crasher. It's a juggernaut.
Pick: Indiana -6.5
