The LSU Tigers take on the Houston Cougars in the 2025 Texas Bowl in Houston on Saturday, Dec. 27. Kickoff is set for 9:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Houston is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -110. LSU, meanwhile, enters as a +1 underdog and is also -110 on the moneyline. The over/under sits at 42.5 total points.
Here’s my LSU vs. Houston prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 27.
LSU vs Houston Prediction
- LSU vs. Houston Pick: Houston -2.5
My Houston vs. LSU best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
LSU vs Houston Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
- LSU vs Houston Spread: Houston -1, LSU +1
- LSU vs Houston Over/Under: 42.5 Points
- LSU vs Houston Moneyline: LSU -110, Houston -110
LSU vs Houston College Football Betting Preview
LSU Tigers Betting Preview: Opt-Outs on Deck
It was a disastrous season for LSU, which will now enter the Lane Kiffin Era. Before that begins, the Tigers have a matchup against an improved Houston squad, which is off to a great start in the Willie Fritz era.
LSU’s lineup looks nothing like the team we saw all season, while Houston is much closer to full strength. When you consider the stats, motivation and the difference in available players, Houston -2.5 is a slam-dunk option.
The main story here is that LSU’s roster is depleted. This isn’t an exaggeration. The Tigers are missing most of their defensive corps.
Players sitting out include key defenders Harold Perkins, Whit Weeks, Wes Weeks, Mansoor Delane, AJ Haulcy and Jack Pyburn, as well as starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
LSU is also missing receivers and offensive linemen who played important roles.
To make matters worse, the players LSU does have available don’t make up for the losses. The Tigers get center Braelin Moore back, but their offense will rely on backup QB Michael Van Buren Jr., who’s making only his fourth career start.
He’ll be behind an offensive line made up of Moore, Tyree Adams, Coen Echols, Paul Mubenga and Weston Davis. This isn’t a stable setup, especially since LSU already ranked outside the top 100 in key stats like early downs EPA/Play, EPA/Pass, EPA/Rush and available yards gained with its regular starters.
Now, with the starting quarterback out, key receivers missing, a shuffled offensive line and most of the defense replaced, it’s tough to imagine a worse situation for a bowl game.
Houston Cougars Betting Preview: Plenty of Stability
On the other side, Houston’s roster picture is far more stable than the national narrative suggests. The Cougars' only confirmed opt-out is starting center Demetrius Hunter. This situation is nowhere near the level of attrition LSU is dealing with.
Houston’s potential opt-outs — running back Dean Connors, tight end Tanner Koziol and defensive end Eddie Walls III — are not confirmed, and the team still expects the bulk of its offensive producers to play.
QB Conner Weigman returning to the program in 2026 also stabilized the locker room, removing any doubt that Houston cares about this bowl game.
The Cougars have some injuries — defensive tackle Khalil Laufau and wide receiver Stephon Johnson missed their last game — but these don’t change who they are as a team.
The important thing is their defense is still mostly intact after ranking 34th in EPA/Pass allowed, 37th in EPA/Rush allowed and 33rd in available yards allowed.
This gives them a big edge against a backup quarterback, makeshift offensive line and limited skill players.
That’s not even considering the other big mismatch, which is LSU’s defense against Houston’s offense.
The Tigers' metrics look elite, ranking in the top 20 in EPA/Pass allowed and EPA/Rush allowed, but those rankings were due in large part to players who won’t be on the field here.
LSU vs Houston Pick, Betting Analysis
With Perkins, Haulcy, Delane, Pyburn and several linebackers out, LSU’s defense is now made up of backups and freshmen with little experience.
Houston, meanwhile, keeps its starting quarterback and receivers, and has a more stable offensive line for this game.
Motivation is another massive factor. Houston is clearly taking this game far more seriously, while LSU seems to be treating this like a spring game.
The line looks low, given that Houston has continuity, a top-40 defense, real offensive stability and much more experience. This is my favorite bet on Saturday’s slate by far.
Pick: Houston -2.5
