Virginia Tech-Cincinnati Betting Guide: Run Game Will Dictate 2018 Military Bowl

2018 Military Bowl Betting Odds: Cincinnati-Virginia Tech

• Odds: Cincinnati -6
• Over/Under: 53.5
• Date: Monday, Dec. 31
• Location: Annapolis, Mary.
• Time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Off the hangover of the College Football Playoff and NFL Week 17, your remedy will be the Military Bowl between Cincinnati and Virginia Tech on Monday afternoon.

Odds Moves For Military Bowl

By Danny Donahue

Bouncing back and forth in the range between the key numbers of 3 and 7, this line has been as high as 6.5 and as low as 4. It currently sits at Cincy -6, a notch under its opener of -6.5. Fifty-nine percent of bettors accounting for 62% of dollars are laying the points with the Bearcats.

The under has drawn an impressive 95% of money on just 35% of bets — numbers that could easily change as kickoff approaches — but the total hasn’t budged from 53.5.

Betting Trends For Cincinnati-Virginia Tech

By John Ewing

A majority of tickets (70%) are on the over, but the line hasn’t moved. When there is lopsided betting on the over but the line stays the same or decreases this is called reverse line movement. It has been profitable to wager on the under in this situation.

By Evan Abrams

The Military Bowl brings us a unique matchup of two teams entering bowl season on different planets. Cincinnati is 10-2 (.833) and Virginia Tech is 6-6 (.500) on the season. This will be just the sixth time since 2005 that there will be a bowl matchup of two teams with at least a 33-point win percentage differential, with the teams holding the advantage going 1-4 ATS. Teams with an advantage of 25 points or more are just 16-29 ATS (35.6%).

Virginia Tech Defense *Throws Up*

By Stuckey

It's hard to put into words how bad the Virginia Tech defense has been, particularly against the run. Just look at the Pitt game, when the Panthers ran it 36 times for 492 yards. That’s 13.7 yards per rush — no, I’m not joking. Pitt's 13.9 yards per play were the most in a single game since 2005.

That spells trouble against a Cincy offense that runs the ball at a top-10 clip nationally (47 times per game; 10th in nation), averages 5.1 yards per rush (top 30) and ranks 36th in rush explosiveness, which should play against a VT defense that ranks 128th in that same category.

AAC Getting Worked in Bowls

By Steve Petrella

It's not fair to judge a team on the play of its conference mates because every situation is different, but it's worth noting just how awful the AAC has been this bowl season.

• Tulane: Beat ULL 41-24
• USF: Lost 38-20 to Marshall
• Memphis: Lost 37-34 to Wake Forest
• Temple: Lost 56-27 to Duke
• Houston: Lost 70-14 to Army

The conference took some heat all year for its strength of schedule in the UCF playoff debates, and it hasn't done a great job proving the doubters wrong so far.

Who's More Motivated?

By Stuckey

Both teams played in this same bowl a few years ago. Luke Fickell is building something special at Cincy, so I think his team will be motivated in his first bowl game.

And after keeping their bowl streak alive in the final game (as they did the last time these teams met in this bowl), I think Justin  Fuente will have his troops ready. Two good young coaches, so no motivational edge here. Focus on the X's and O's.

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

Virginia Tech may have been more motivated to beat Virginia and Marshall to keep a 25-year bowl streak alive rather than actually playing in a bowl. The Hokies had an interesting season, including a hurricane cancellation, a loss as a 28-point favorite to Old Dominion and a four-game losing streak extending to mid-November.

It was a different story for Cincinnati, which had just the 96th ranked strength of schedule according to S&P+ and finished 10-2. The Bearcats toughest games were losses in Central Florida and Temple, with their best victory coming against S&P+ 45th-ranked Ohio.

Cincinnati will do its best to represent the AAC against a Power 5 school, and should use its best traits to get the job done. The Bearcats are top 10 in time of possession and third down conversions offensively.

Cincy is not the fastest moving offense in any explosiveness categories, but the Bearcats get the job done, ranking 36th in finishing drives. Ball control and finish will be the name of the game.

Virginia Tech has been a different story since the injury to quarterback Josh Jackson against Old Dominion in late September, particularly on defense. The Hokies rank 126th in defensive IsoPPP+, close to last in the nation in opponent yards per play, and 107th in passing downs sack rate. This has not been the typical Bud Foster defense, allowing seven opponents to score at least 31 points this season.

The Action Network projections make this game Cincinnati -5 with a total of 56, both relatively close to the current number. Third downs should be the difference in this game for Cincinnati to get the win, as the Bearcats are in the top 10 the Virginia Tech defense is mid-pack in FBS at 58th.

The Pick: Pass