Welcome to the final regular-season week of the 2025 college football season.
It's been a fun ride, but there's still work to be done.
As is tradition, we have an excellent Black Friday slate, and I have three spots circled for the action.
Read on for my Week 14 NCAAF picks and college football predictions for Friday, Nov. 28.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Mississippi State +7.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | New Mexico +1.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Temple +20.5 |
Mississippi State +7.5 vs. Ole Miss
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
I'm almost always interested in the Egg Bowl underdog, and that's no different this year.
You can throw any motivational angle out the window. Both of these teams won't be lacking in that department for an in-state rivalry.
Plus, the Rebels can lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff with a victory, while the Bulldogs can clinch a bowl bid one season following a two-win campaign.
From a pure numbers perspective, I do project this right around a touchdown, so I was fine taking the hook here.
Plus, there's at least some chance that all of the hoopla surrounding Lane Kiffin serves as a major distraction for his team ahead of this game. We've certainly seen his teams flop as favorites, costing themselves in the past. Look no further than last season when a more talented Ole Miss squad lost twice as double-digit favorites to Florida and Kentucky, which ultimately cost it a berth in the playoff.
And it's not like the Rebels haven't flirted with disaster this season. They do have five one-possession wins across one of the easiest SEC schedules, including four against Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas, and Washington State — not exactly a murderer's row of opponents. Even the corpse of Florida put a little bit of a scare into the Rebels in their most recent outing.
I also believe this is a prime opportunity to buy low on the Bulldogs after back-to-back blowout losses to Georgia and Missouri before the bye week, which they desperately needed.
Mississippi State doesn't have the bodies capable of surviving long stretches of SEC play without wearing down, so the extra week of preparation and rest should serve them well following a brutal seven-game stretch that capped off one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the nation to date.
Keep in mind, Mississippi State already upset a healthy Arizona State team at home earlier this season and arguably should have beaten Tennessee and Texas if not for a pair of blown leads that went to overtime. And if they don't throw an interception late at Florida in field goal range, they win in Gainesville, also.
The Bulldogs are just a few bounces away from being 8-3 across a much more difficult schedule than Ole Miss.
From a matchup perspective, it's hard to envision Mississippi State getting many consistent stops (especially on the ground). Still, the defense should at least come into this matchup as healthy (and fresh) as it has been in quite some time.
More importantly, its own rushing attack should get going in this matchup, which is when Jeff Lebby's offense operates at peak efficiency. On the season, Ole Miss ranks outside the top-100 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and can be pushed around at the point of attack.
That is music to Lebby's ears.
I'll take over a touchdown with the home pup that should be able to move the ball consistently. I can already hear the cow bells.
Pick: Mississippi State +7.5 (-120) or Better
New Mexico +1.5 vs. San Diego State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
San Diego State has been one of the most pleasant surprises this season, perfectly symbolizing the beauty of the new college football landscape, which is marked by incredible year-over-year turnarounds (in both directions).
Having won (and covered) eight of their past nine games, the Aztecs now find themselves all alone atop the Mountain West standings. They simply need to win in Albuquerque to clinch a spot in the Mountain West championship.
While they can still get there with a loss, they may need help from others or the dreaded computer ratings in a multi-team tiebreaker.
What has led to the remarkable turnaround? Despite head coach Sean Lewis being known for his "flash fast" offense at Kent State, it's actually the defense that has carried the Aztecs all season long. Cornerback Chris Johnson is the star of the show and will play at the next level, but the entire group is stingy.
The offense, on the other hand, remains extremely limited. It's a unit I currently rank outside the top 100 nationally.
Lucky Sutton is a competent running back, which is what the Aztecs try to lean on as a complement to their relentless defense.
However, there is almost no juice in the passing attack (122nd in EPA), which at least could hit some explosives when healthy. Well, that's no longer the case with two starting receivers now lost for the season due to injury.
The most critical loss came recently when Jordan Napier (who has almost twice as many catches as the next leading receiver) went down against Boise State. Since then, the already anemic passing attack has turned to dust.
Over his past five games, quarterback Jayden Denegal has completed just 46 of 93 pass attempts (49.4%) for 548 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions. It's even uglier over the past two games, where he didn't even throw for over 100 combined yards.
That includes last week's 25-3 victory over a horrid San Jose State defense. The Spartans actually out-gained the Aztecs 268-248 in that game, but couldn't overcome an early injury to their starting quarterback and poor luck on fourth downs and in the turnover department.
The wide receiver injuries will be felt even more this week since the optimal way to attack this New Mexico defense is through the air. The Lobos have been extremely stingy against the run (which is why I loved them against Air Force), but are very vulnerable to offenses that can move the ball efficiently through the air.
That is certainly not San Diego State, especially without Napier.
While I did sing the praises of this San Diego State defense earlier, I do believe the Aztecs are a tad overrated, given that they've faced one of the easiest schedules in the country.
Not only is it a laughable schedule on paper, but they have also benefited from facing more backup or benched quarterbacks than any team in the country. Just take a look at the quarterbacks they have faced:
- Carson Conklin (Fresno State), who was the original backup, has since been benched.
- Tama Amisone (San Jose State), who came in early after Walker Eget got hurt.
- Max Cutforth (Boise State) in his second career start after Maddux Madsen's injury.
- Carter Jones (Nevada) in his first-ever start.
- Jackson Brousseau (Colorado State) in his second career start.
- Josh Holst (NIU), who was benched shortly after.
- Jaxon Potter (Washington State), who was benched shortly after (36-13 Wazzu win).
The only other quarterback they beat in league play was Wyoming's Kaden Anderson, who has arguably been the worst starting quarterback in the country to keep his job.
It's almost impossible to face a more manageable schedule of opposing passing attacks. In fact, their only Mountain West game against a quarterback who began the year as the starter was against Hawaii, a game the Aztecs lost 38-6 on the island.
Keep in mind that New Mexico not only had the more difficult schedule on paper by a substantial margin, but also faced Boise State and San Jose State with their starting quarterbacks in games where neither opponent could get much on the ground. Those were the only two league losses for the Lobos, who have since won five straight to give themselves a chance at reaching the Mountain West championship with a victory.
If Boise State loses to Utah State, New Mexico would clinch a spot with a win and face San Diego State again in the title game. If Boise State wins, then it would come down to computer ratings to break a three-way tie (I believe).
In conclusion, I do think the San Diego State defense is a bit overrated based on the laughable schedule of opposing quarterbacks it has faced, and the Aztecs don't have the chops in the passing game to exploit the New Mexico defense.
While it won't be easy for the Lobos on offense, I do trust Jason Eck to scheme up enough points to get this win. Look out for the quarterback run packages with James Laubstein, who has given the offense some extra juice over the past month.
Lastly, SDSU usually has a significant edge in Special Teams, but New Mexico can match it there.
Pick: New Mexico +1.5 or Better
Temple +20.5 at North Texas
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
With a win, the Mean Green clinch a spot in the American Conference Championship game, where they will get a shot to clinch a berth in the College Football Playoff.
They are in pure must-win mode, which I believe is inflating this line a bit.
Keep in mind that it also puts all of the pressure squarely on their shoulders, so it can actually work against teams in this spot.
I also believe this is a decent chance to sell high on North Texas, following five straight covers in which it has benefited from some pretty fortunate fourth-down variance and a +8 turnover margin. That's tough to sustain, especially against a Temple team that ranks second in the country in fewest giveaways per game in large part due to quarterback Evan Simon having only one interception.
It's easy to forget this North Texas team has a pair of overtime wins against Army and Western Michigan, in addition to three others in which it had a net yardage edge of less than 35 yards (vs. UAB, Navy, and South Alabama).
The offense is absolutely incredible, led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker and stud freshman back Caleb Hawkins, who have thrived under the tutelage of Eric Morris, who has parlayed his success in Denton to a head coach position at Oklahoma State next season.
Will that be a potential distraction this week? Probably not, but it's worth noting.
While the offense has no holes, the same can't be said of a defense that even allowed Charlotte and Rice to reach 400 total yards.
It's an opportunistic defense that has improved dramatically against the pass this season (low bar, to be fair). Still, it has significant deficiencies slowing down opposing rushing attacks, ranking in the bottom-10 nationally in Success Rate allowed.
The Owls haven't had a great ground game this season, but their offense has operated best when it has any semblance of balance, which I believe it will in this particular matchup. That will, in turn, chew up the clock and set up some pass explosives, which Temple has thrived at hitting (and North Texas has surrendered at a high clip).
Additionally, Temple head coach K.C. Keeler (whom I think very highly of) should have extensive familiarity with North Texas' defensive scheme, as defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity held the same role under Keeler at Sam Houston State last season.
Even five of North Texas' top 11 defenders by snap count played at Sam Houston last season, so Keeler has extensive familiarity with their strengths and weaknesses.
That has to help with game planning.
Keeler did say Temple came out a little flat in practice earlier this week following a blowout loss to Tulane, which is a bit of a concern. However, I expect the Owls to be ready to play on Saturday with a chance to play spoiler and clinch a bowl for the first time since 2019.
Ultimately, I'm buying low on Temple since I see value in this number, and there might be some hidden game-planning edges for a Temple offense that should enjoy success on the ground, helping out Simon. The Owls should also finally have a fully healthy secondary for the first time in a month.
This is still a competent Temple team that has played a more difficult schedule, with a win over UTSA and a pair of 1-point losses to Navy (thanks to a blown call) and Army.
Pick: Temple +20 or Better
