Twelve teams entered, only four remain.
The 2025-26 College Football Playoff semifinals are set and, in response, sportsbooks hung hypothetical National Championship lines for each of the four potential matchups. Indiana faces Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl, while Ole Miss takes on Miami in the Peach Bowl.
Championship hypotheticals are useful for a multitude of reasons.
First, it gives bettors the opportunity to get ahead of lines that may shift following the conclusions of the semifinals.
Second, it gives bettors a benchmark of how far a sportsbook moved its power ratings following the outcome of certain games and the opportunity to judge if a sportsbook moved a number too far.
Let’s take a look at these numbers and discern if any of them are worth betting.
As a reminder, bets on hypotheticals are voided if the championship matchup doesn’t happen. For instance, if you take a hypothetical bet on Ole Miss-Oregon and the championship matchup is anything but that, your bet is voided and your wager is returned to you.
2026 College Football Playoff National Championship Odds
There are four possible outcomes for the 2026 National Championship game. The hypothetical odds for each possibility are as follows at FanDuel Sportsbook:
Indiana vs. Miami
- Spread: Indiana -5.5
- Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Oregon vs. Miami
- Spread: Oregon -2.5
- Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Oregon vs. Ole Miss
- Spread: Oregon -3.5
- Over/Under 53.5
Indiana vs. Ole Miss
- Spread: Indiana -7.5
- Over/Under 49.5 Points
Mathematically, it makes sense that Indiana would be roughly 3-4 points more a favorite than Oregon over each team, considering the Hoosiers are -4.5 favorites over the Ducks in the Fiesta Bowl.
However, some number discrepancy comes up between Miami and Ole Miss. The Hurricanes are only two points fewer an underdog to each team than the Rebels but are -3.5 favorites over them in the Peach Bowl.
This year’s title game plays out at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, the venue the Canes call home. In theory, they should get a slight bump in the odds over Ole Miss.
Why Don't the Ole Miss and Miami Lines Add Up?
These hypothetical lines tell you something about each matchup:
Neither Indiana nor Oregon is expected to change in power rating all that much if the outcome somewhat matches the current spread
Ole Miss would receive a notable power ratings bump with a win over Miami.
If this doesn’t match the same plan you have for these games, there’s likely a bet or two to be made in there.
College Football Playoff National Championship Pick
Remember: If these championship matchups don’t happen, your bet voids and is returned to you.
I’m betting Indiana -7.5 over Ole Miss on these hypothetical championship lines.
Given the assumptions above, Indiana’s power rating wouldn’t change all that much, while Ole Miss’ would increase despite IU securing the better win in the semifinals.
The Hoosiers are 9-5 against the spread this year, and in their biggest games (Rose Bowl vs. Alabama, Big Ten Championship vs. Ohio State and Week 7 vs. Oregon), they’re 3-0 ATS.
It would take a mountain of action to bump that line down to Indiana -7 — a number that’s probably bought up right away.
This line gets ahead of the future number and positions us on a team that probably needs more ratings adjustment beating Oregon than beating Miami (and, if it is adjusted, we get ahead of a higher opening number anyway).
Ole Miss’ defense is simply too porous to defend an Indiana offense that’s only been slowed down by the truly elite defenses in the country.
On the other end, in games Trinidad Chambliss has been pressured and sacked (which is not very often), he’s only taken 13 sacks on 398 dropbacks. Ole Miss’ offense can sputter (see: Washington State, 11 pressures, three sacks and just 24 points scored).
Indiana is a far superior team to Ole Miss, and this could end up closer to the Rose Bowl outcome than anything should it play out.
Pick: Indiana -7.5 vs. Ole Miss
Assessing the Other CFP Hypotheticals
I opted not to jump on Indiana -5.5 over Miami because if the Canes see a bump in power ratings with a win over Ole Miss and the Hoosiers’ rating doesn’t change much, we may see a lower number open.
We could also see action on Miami early due to (a) this game is played at its own stadium and (b) handicapping immediate recent form would likely push bettors to take the underdog.
The same logic applies to Miami +2.5; we’d probably see some takers of Oregon and a +3 open. It’s at least worth waiting because the difference between +2.5 and +1.5 is about 5% in expected win rate, while +2.5 to +3.5 is 17%.
If Oregon beats Indiana, you’ll see a bigger power ratings boost. If you’re an Ole Miss backer, it’s likely best to wait. That number would probably move toward the Ducks earlier and open higher than +3.5. Oregon bettors can be patient since this number is already north of a key figure.
Essentially, you will likely see a better number on these teams after the odds reopen.
