We're already in Week 5 of the NCAAF season, and I have four college football picks and predictions to target for your afternoon betting card.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 5, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 15-10 (60.0%)
- Overall: 184-133-2 (58.0%)
Week 5 College Football Picks, Predictions for Afternoon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Bowling Green +10.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Washington +10.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UCLA +7 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Northern Illinois +3 |
Bowling Green +10.5 at Ohio
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
There's nothing more romantic than starting out a long Saturday of sweats than with a MAC 'dog on CBS Sports Network.
In a matchup of two run-heavy offenses, Bowling Green has the edge along the offensive line with an extremely veteran unit that boasts nearly 8,000 career FBS snaps.
That group should pave the way for the BG rushing attack to stay ahead of the chains against a very poor Ohio run defense that has also recently lost a starting linebacker (who will be missed in coverage here) and key defensive tackle (who was one of its best against the run to date) to injury.
While Drew Pyne isn't anything to write home about at quarterback, he does have plenty of experience and won't be asked to do much other than complete short passes (5.0 aDOT in 2025) to keep the sticks moving and clock bleeding.
That formula can work against this Ohio front seven.
These two teams have both played top-50 schedules so far (Ohio slightly more difficult), and BG actually has a slightly better yards-per-play margin.
Ohio has the inferior offensive line, overall defense and special teams to boot.
The Falcons did recently lose stud linebacker Dorian Pringle to a season-ending injury, but redshirt freshman Caden Marshall — who came with Eddie George from Tennessee State, so he knows the defense — actually played very well in his season debut.
He will at least work next to an extremely underrated backer in tackling machine Gideon Lampron.
The outside cornerbacks are what scare me the most for Bowling Green with a redshirt freshman and Tennessee State transfer, but Ohio doesn't really have much juice on the outside at wide receiver, especially after losing Max Rodarte to an injury last game.
I actually really like BG's slot corner, MJ Cannon, who will have the toughest task of the day in slowing down Chase Hendricks, who lines up exclusively in the all-important slot position in Ohio's offensive attack.
The Bobcats do have an edge at the quarterback position with Parker Navarro. He's an absolute dog and will certainly make plays with his legs and through the air off-script behind a shaky offensive line. He's the ace up Ohio's sleeve.
However, the Falcons, who play with extremely heavy personnel, can sustain long drives behind their veteran offensive line against the extremely undersized front of an Ohio defense that has troubling metrics, injuries and some likely overdue late down regression.
I happily paid to make Ohio cover this double-digit spread in a game where possessions should come at a premium. Give me the points.
Notable Nugget
There's really just not much home-field advantage in the MAC, where most road trips are relatively close by.
Blindly betting MAC road teams in league play historically has cashed at a 55% clip. Since 2005, double-digit underdogs with a total below 52 have gone 63-44 ATS (58.9%).
Pick: Bowling Green +10 or Better
Washington +10.5 vs. Ohio State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This was the first game I played this week and the only one I bet on the open. Excuse my lack of brevity, but I have a lot to say about this matchup, which I personally can't wait for.
I came in with high expectations for this Huskies squad that basically had to start from scratch with one returning starter in 2024 under new head coach Jedd Fisch, who's one of my favorites in the sport and one of the top play-callers in college football.
Washington boasts an electric offense led by dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr., who may finish as one of the 10 best in the sport by the end of the season.
He's also flanked by a top-five back in Jonah Coleman and a top-five receiver in Denzel Boston.
The offensive line remains the biggest question mark in this particular matchup, but it's certainly improved from last year, primarily due to the addition of Kansas State transfer Carver Willis at left tackle.
So, can the Huskies move the ball on this very talented Ohio State defense? I believe so.
Williams' mobility and Coleman's prowess out of the backfield in the pass game should prove especially impactful in keeping drives alive.
Keep in mind this Buckeyes stop unit lost a lot of talent (and one of the nation's best coordinators) from the 2024 national title team.
They looked the part in the opener against Texas, but that may have had more to do with the struggles of that broken Longhorn offense and Arch Manning, who completed only 11-of-24 passes for less than 150 yards at home against UTEP.
And don't forget Texas was still a few plays away from winning that game in Columbus.
While the safeties and linebackers are legit, the cornerback room still has some potential holes, and the defensive line, while talented, likely took a step back this season.
I also will take Fisch over Matt Patricia all day every day, and twice on Saturday. There's a chance the still uber-talented interior defensive line eats up the Washington interior, but that's where Williams' legs could really come in handy.
I'm super curious to see what the Buckeyes do with Caleb Downs, who could be used as an effective spy on Demond.
It's also worth mentioning that the Huskies should be elite in the scripted portion of games on offense. An early score to build momentum and keep the raucous purple rain crowd engaged could prove crucial early on.
The Huskies have one of the most underrated big-game home-field advantages in the nation. It's no coincidence they've won 22 straight in Seattle.
Speaking of tough environments, this will also mark the first road start for talented Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin. We've certainly seen other youngsters really struggle in this spot throughout the season.
After a very pedestrian showing against Texas (understandable in his first career start against an elite defense), he's looked the part over he past two games, but those came against Grambling and a horrid Ohio defense, where he still managed to throw three interceptions to go along with only a trio of Big-Time Throws.
It still certainly could take some time before he unlocks his full potential. He's also not mobile and working behind an offensive line that has taken a step back after losing three to the NFL — two of whom started out of the gates.
The backfield also isn't as potent after losing Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson to the NFL. CJ Donaldson and James Peoples just don't have the same juice, and both really struggle in pass protection.
Ohio State was never going to be as good as last year's national title team after seeing a program-record 14 players get selected in the NFL Draft and both coordinators depart.
Now, the Buckeyes still have as much talent as any team in the country, but it will likely take some time before they reach their full potential, especially with a super-inexperienced signal-caller.
What the Buckeyes do still have at their disposal is arguably the best wide receiver duo in college football in Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith.
So, can the Huskies match up on the outside in the most-man-coverage-heavy defense in the nation under new defensive coordinator Ryan Walters?
Well, that may come down to the status of stud cornerback Tacario Davis, who could hear his name called in the first round of the NFL Draft next season. The Walters defense is uber-reliant on shutdown cornerbacks in man coverage.
When healthy, Washington has two in Davis and Ephesians Prysock — two physical 6-foot-4 corners who each previously played under Fisch at Arizona.
The problem is Davis' status is in doubt. He sat out last week against Washington State to nurse a rib injury. In his place, Leroy Bryant got relentlessly torched, forcing Washington to turn to true freshman Dylan Robinson.
While Robinson played well, I doubt he's ready to play on an island against Smith or Tate, which would cause Walters to roll more consistent help to his side and alter the structure of his defense.
As a result, the status of Davis is enormous and could alter the result. Now, Smith and Tate are still good enough to just make plays against this Washington secondary at full strength, but it's a lot more precarious without Davis.
It's also worth noting Washington lost stud linebacker Taariq Al-Uqdah to an injury last week. That makes the potential debut of former Arizona all-conference linebacker Jacob Manu even more critical.
Manu tore his ACL last October and has been close to returning but has yet to suit up for the Huskies, who are also awaiting the season debuts of defensive lineman Jayvon Parker (recovering from Achilles) and FIU transfer safety CJ Christian.
Fortunately for them, safety hasn't been an issue due to the emergence of Northern Arizona transfer Alex McLaughlin, who ranks third in coverage grade among 488 safeties with at least 50 coverage snaps this season, per PFF.
Now, the Washington front is clearly better than last year due to an increase in size and strength. As a result, it's been able to get into the opponent's backfield at a much higher clip.
In fact, the Huskies actually lead the nation in pressure rate when not blitzing. However, this is a much taller task than playing Washington State, UC Davis, and Colorado State.
My biggest concern for the Washington State defense is stopping the run, especially if not at full strength. My next biggest concern would become the secondary if Davis can't go.
With that said, this is not the same caliber of rushing attack for Ohio State that we saw last year.
The quarterback is inexperienced and immobile, while the offensive line and backfield have lost an abundance of NFL talent. Still, the final inactive list will be crucial.
I would be remiss if I didn't mention Washington's special teams. It should be better than last year's disastrous unit, but it's still far from a strength and could end up costing it against a superior opponent.
With that said, I'm still comfortable with the 10.5 in pocket but wouldn't be running to bet 8.5 without knowing the status of Davis. If he can't go, I'd need double digits and would also potentially look at the over.
Regardless of what happens with the defense, I do think the Washington offense will move the ball and could still keep it within shouting distance throughout.
There's also the chance that Sayin just has a disastrous day in his first career road start in a super hostile environment.
Notable Nugget
Over the past 20 years, we've only seen a No. 1 team close as a single-digit favorite one other time against an unranked opponent. That happened in 2012 when 11-0 Notre Dame closed as a 4.5-point favorite at 7-4 USC. The Irish won by nine.
Pick: Washington +10 or Better
Note: I personally need at least 10 here. I do think some other numbers guys who project this higher could push this back up (especially depending on the Washington injury report), so I'd wait to see where this goes with it being in a bit of a dead zone at the moment.
UCLA +7 at Northwestern
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
This is as gross as it gets, and I could look very dumb if UCLA has checked out or this new staff doesn't handle the long trip well after the bye.
However, I'm willing to take a shot at this number and buy low on the Bruins after their horrific home loss to New Mexico, since I just don't have much of a difference between these two teams from a power ratings perspective — even after downgrading UCLA significantly to start the year.
From all of the reports I have read and heard from those close to the program, everybody remains engaged, and the practices have actually been much more functional than they had been under the previous regime.
It's probably a non-material upgrade with Tim Skipper at the helm. I mean, it would be hard for things to be much worse with all of the sloppiness (fifth-most penalties per game) over the Bruins' first three contests.
Plus, the extra time during the bye week should really help a brand new offense (which will likely see wide receiver Rico Flores Jr. make his season debut) under coordinator Tino Sunseri, who runs a fairly complex scheme.
The Bruins should have success on the ground and with the short passing attack against a Northwestern defense hellbent on preventing explosive plays, which isn't really a strength of this UCLA offense.
Can the offensive line hold up against the Northwestern pass rush? Can Nico make the simple throws? Will the defense, which has been beyond dreadful, actually care and tackle? Those are all valid questions.
It can be difficult to pinpoint the floor of these extremely underperforming teams early in the season in the new college football world, but I'm going to trust my numbers against a Northwestern squad that isn't really built to blow out teams with one of the least-talented P4 rosters.
Quarterback Preston Stone has not looked sharp with four Big-Time Throws to 10 Turnover-Worthy Plays already. It also doesn't help that the Wildcats really only have one reliable receiver and already lost their leading rusher to a season-ending injury.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Northwestern is just 13-23-1 (36.1%) ATS as a home favorite of more than six points, failing to cover by nearly a field goal per game on average.
Pick: UCLA +7 (Play to +6)
Northern Illinois +3 vs. San Diego State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I would project the above spread if both teams played on a neutral field. However, not only will NIU host this game, but the Aztecs will have to travel 2,000 miles in a tough situational spot.
Following a huge upset win over Cal as a two-touchdown underdog, head coachSean Lewis will try to get his team ready for a rather meaningless nonconference game in DeKalb one week before the start of Mountain West play.
As a result, I could see them coming out a bit lethargic.
Additionally, NIU has played the much tougher strength of schedule with its last two games coming on the road against P4 competition (Maryland and Mississippi State), in which it held its own before wearing down late.
In fact, this matchup features one of the widest strength-of-schedule disparities of the weekend.
Yes, SDSU looked amazing last week in its victory over Cal, but I really do believe it caught the Bears napping in a major sleepy spot.
Cal also essentially had six turnovers if you include failed fourth-down attempts and missed field goals in addition to three normal giveaways — two of which went the other way for touchdowns.
This is still an Aztec team that got blown out in its only road affair against a bad Washington State squad. It's also still a subpar offense that had 25% of its yardage output last week on a fluky 80-yard touchdown reception.
NIU's defense can control this game, while running back Chavon Wright and company should do just enough to keep the chains moving in NIU's extremely run-heavy offense against a San Diego State front that can be pushed around to keep this likely low-scoring affair very tight throughout.
Ultimately, I'm selling high on San Diego State in a tough spot against an NIU team I expect to have full motivation after two straight losses against a future conference opponent ahead of its move to the Mountain West next season.
Notable Nugget
Against FBS competition, NIU head coach Thomas Hammock is 24-12-1 ATS (66.7%) with a four-plus point average cover margin as an underdog compared to just 5-21-1 ATS as a favorite with a -6.8 average cover margin.
Pick: Northern Illinois +3 or Better
