College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey’s Week 5 Bets for Washington vs Ohio State, Colorado vs BYU, More

As I do each and every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's Week 5 college football card.

My primary goal here is to simply discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.

I will write most of these up after betting them, which I log immediately on the Action App. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each to.

Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my eight favorite Week 5 spots, along with six others that I haven't gotten to the window yet for various reasons.

As always, there will be some ugly 'dogs on my card, but nothing like the usually completely filthy cards of the first four weeks.

• 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
• 2025: 15-10 (60.0%)
• Overall: 184-133-2 (58.0%)

Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Saturday's Week 5 slate.

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College Football Predictions, Picks

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Bowling Green +10.5
	3:30 p.m.	Washington +10.5
	3:30 p.m.	UCLA +7
	3:30 p.m.	Northern Illinois +3
	7 p.m.	Florida Atlantic +14
	7:30 p.m.	Penn State -3
	8 p.m.	Louisiana ML +100
	10:15 p.m.	Colorado +7

Bowling Green +10.5 at Ohio

12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

There's nothing more romantic than starting out a long Saturday of sweats than with a MAC 'dog on CBS Sports Network.

In a matchup of two run-heavy offenses, Bowling Green has the edge along the offensive line with an extremely veteran unit that boasts nearly 8,000 career FBS snaps.

That group should pave the way for the BG rushing attack to stay ahead of the chains against a very poor Ohio run defense that has also recently lost a starting linebacker (who will be missed in coverage here) and key defensive tackle (who was one of its best against the run to date) to injury.

While Drew Pyne isn't anything to write home about at quarterback, he does have plenty of experience and won't be asked to do much other than complete short passes (5.0 aDOT in 2025) to keep the sticks moving and clock bleeding.

That formula can work against this Ohio front seven.

These two teams have both played top-50 schedules so far (Ohio slightly more difficult), and BG actually has a slightly better yards-per-play margin.

Ohio has the inferior offensive line, overall defense and special teams to boot.

The Falcons did recently lose stud linebacker Dorian Pringle to a season-ending injury, but redshirt freshman Caden Marshall  — who came with Eddie George from Tennessee State, so he knows the defense — actually played very well in his season debut.

He will at least work next to an extremely underrated backer in tackling machine Gideon Lampron.

The outside cornerbacks are what scare me the most for Bowling Green with a redshirt freshman and Tennessee State transfer, but Ohio doesn't really have much juice on the outside at wide receiver, especially after losing Max Rodarte to an injury last game.

I actually really like BG's slot corner, MJ Cannon, who will have the toughest task of the day in slowing down Chase Hendricks, who lines up exclusively in the all-important slot position in Ohio's offensive attack.

The Bobcats do have an edge at the quarterback position with Parker Navarro. He's an absolute dog and will certainly make plays with his legs and through the air off-script behind a shaky offensive line. He's the ace up Ohio's sleeve.

However, the Falcons, who play with extremely heavy personnel, can sustain long drives behind their veteran offensive line against the extremely undersized front of an Ohio defense that has troubling metrics, injuries and some likely overdue late down regression.

I happily paid to make Ohio cover this double-digit spread in a game where possessions should come at a premium. Give me the points.

Pick: Bowling Green +10 or Better

Washington +10.5 vs. Ohio State

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

This was the first game I played this week and the only one I bet on the open. Excuse my lack of brevity, but I have a lot to say about this matchup, which I personally can't wait for.

I came in with high expectations for this Huskies squad that basically had to start from scratch with one returning starter in 2024 under new head coach Jedd Fisch, who's one of my favorites in the sport and one of the top play-callers in college football.

Washington boasts an electric offense led by dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr., who may finish as one of the 10 best in the sport by the end of the season.

He's also flanked by a top-five back in Jonah Coleman and a top-five receiver in Denzel Boston.

The offensive line remains the biggest question mark in this particular matchup, but it's certainly improved from last year, primarily due to the addition of Kansas State transfer Carver Willis at left tackle.

So, can the Huskies move the ball on this very talented Ohio State defense? I believe so.

Williams' mobility and Coleman's prowess out of the backfield in the pass game should prove especially impactful in keeping drives alive.

Keep in mind this Buckeyes stop unit lost a lot of talent (and one of the nation's best coordinators) from the 2024 national title team.

They looked the part in the opener against Texas, but that may have had more to do with the struggles of that broken Longhorn offense and Arch Manning, who completed only 11-of-24 passes for less than 150 yards at home against UTEP.

And don't forget Texas was still a few plays away from winning that game in Columbus.

While the safeties and linebackers are legit, the cornerback room still has some potential holes, and the defensive line, while talented, likely took a step back this season.

I also will take Fisch over Matt Patricia all day every day, and twice on Saturday. There's a chance the still uber-talented interior defensive line eats up the Washington interior, but that's where Williams' legs could really come in handy.

I'm super curious to see what the Buckeyes do with Caleb Downs, who could be used as an effective spy on Demond.

It's also worth mentioning that the Huskies should be elite in the scripted portion of games on offense. An early score to build momentum and keep the raucous purple rain crowd engaged could prove crucial early on.

The Huskies have one of the most underrated big-game home-field advantages in the nation. It's no coincidence they've won 22 straight in Seattle.

Speaking of tough environments, this will also mark the first road start for talented Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin. We've certainly seen other youngsters really struggle in this spot throughout the season.

After a very pedestrian showing against Texas (understandable in his first career start against an elite defense), he's looked the part over he past two games, but those came against Grambling and a horrid Ohio defense, where he still managed to throw three interceptions to go along with only a trio of Big-Time Throws.

It still certainly could take some time before he unlocks his full potential. He's also not mobile and working behind an offensive line that has taken a step back after losing three to the NFL — two of whom started out of the gates.

The backfield also isn't as potent after losing Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson to the NFL. CJ Donaldson and James Peoples just don't have the same juice, and both really struggle in pass protection.

Ohio State was never going to be as good as last year's national title team after seeing a program-record 14 players get selected in the NFL Draft and both coordinators depart.

Now, the Buckeyes still have as much talent as any team in the country, but it will likely take some time before they reach their full potential, especially with a super-inexperienced signal-caller.

What the Buckeyes do still have at their disposal is arguably the best wide receiver duo in college football in Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith.

So, can the Huskies match up on the outside in the most-man-coverage-heavy defense in the nation under new defensive coordinator Ryan Walters?

Well, that may come down to the status of stud cornerback Tacario Davis, who could hear his name called in the first round of the NFL Draft next season. The Walters defense is uber-reliant on shutdown cornerbacks in man coverage.

When healthy, Washington has two in Davis and Ephesians Prysock — two physical 6-foot-4 corners who each previously played under Fisch at Arizona.

The problem is Davis' status is in doubt. He sat out last week against Washington State to nurse a rib injury. In his place, Leroy Bryant got relentlessly torched, forcing Washington to turn to true freshman Dylan Robinson.

While Robinson played well, I doubt he's ready to play on an island against Smith or Tate, which would cause Walters to roll more consistent help to his side and alter the structure of his defense.

As a result, the status of Davis is enormous and could alter the result. Now, Smith and Tate are still good enough to just make plays against this Washington secondary at full strength, but it's a lot more precarious without Davis.

It's also worth noting Washington lost stud linebacker Taariq Al-Uqdah to an injury last week. That makes the potential debut of former Arizona all-conference linebacker Jacob Manu even more critical.

Manu tore his ACL last October and has been close to returning but has yet to suit up for the Huskies, who are also awaiting the season debuts of defensive lineman Jayvon Parker (recovering from Achilles) and FIU transfer safety CJ Christian.

Fortunately for them, safety hasn't been an issue due to the emergence of Northern Arizona transfer Alex McLaughlin, who ranks third in coverage grade among 488 safeties with at least 50 coverage snaps this season, per PFF.

Now, the Washington front is clearly better than last year due to an increase in size and strength. As a result, it's been able to get into the opponent's backfield at a much higher clip.

In fact, the Huskies actually lead the nation in pressure rate when not blitzing. However, this is a much taller task than playing Washington State, UC Davis, and Colorado State.

My biggest concern for the Washington State defense is stopping the run, especially if not at full strength. My next biggest concern would become the secondary if Davis can't go.

With that said, this is not the same caliber of rushing attack for Ohio State that we saw last year.

The quarterback is inexperienced and immobile, while the offensive line and backfield have lost an abundance of NFL talent. Still, the final inactive list will be crucial.

I would be remiss if I didn't mention Washington's special teams. It should be better than last year's disastrous unit, but it's still far from a strength and could end up costing it against a superior opponent.

With that said, I'm still comfortable with the 10.5 in pocket but wouldn't be running to bet 8.5 without knowing the status of Davis. If he can't go, I'd need double digits and would also potentially look at the over.

Regardless of what happens with the defense, I do think the Washington offense will move the ball and could still keep it within shouting distance throughout.

There's also the chance that Sayin just has a disastrous day in his first career road start in a super hostile environment.

Pick: Washington +10 or Better

Note: I personally need at least 10 here. I do think some other numbers guys who project this higher could push this back up (especially depending on the Washington injury report), so I'd wait to see where this goes with it being in a bit of a dead zone at the moment.

UCLA +7 at Northwestern

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network

This is as gross as it gets, and I could look very dumb if UCLA has checked out or this new staff doesn't handle the long trip well after the bye.

However, I'm willing to take a shot at this number and buy low on the Bruins after their horrific home loss to New Mexico, since I just don't have much of a difference between these two teams from a power ratings perspective — even after downgrading UCLA significantly to start the year.

From all of the reports I have read and heard from those close to the program, everybody remains engaged, and the practices have actually been much more functional than they had been under the previous regime.

It's probably a non-material upgrade with Tim Skipper at the helm. I mean, it would be hard for things to be much worse with all of the sloppiness (fifth-most penalties per game) over the Bruins' first three contests.

Plus, the extra time during the bye week should really help a brand new offense (which will likely see wide receiver Rico Flores Jr. make his season debut) under coordinator Tino Sunseri, who runs a fairly complex scheme.

The Bruins should have success on the ground and with the short passing attack against a Northwestern defense hellbent on preventing explosive plays, which isn't really a strength of this UCLA offense.

Can the offensive line hold up against the Northwestern pass rush? Can Nico make the simple throws? Will the defense, which has been beyond dreadful, actually care and tackle? Those are all valid questions.

It can be difficult to pinpoint the floor of these extremely underperforming teams early in the season in the new college football world, but I'm going to trust my numbers against a Northwestern squad that isn't really built to blow out teams with one of the least-talented P4 rosters.

Quarterback Preston Stone has not looked sharp with four Big-Time Throws to 10 Turnover-Worthy Plays already. It also doesn't help that the Wildcats really only have one reliable receiver and already lost their leading rusher to a season-ending injury.

Pick: UCLA +7 (Play to +6)

Northern Illinois +3 vs. San Diego State

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

I would project the above spread if both teams played on a neutral field. However, not only will NIU host this game, but the Aztecs will have to travel 2,000 miles in a tough situational spot.

Following a huge upset win over Cal as a two-touchdown underdog, head coachSean Lewis will try to get his team ready for a rather meaningless nonconference game in DeKalb one week before the start of Mountain West play.

As a result, I could see them coming out a bit lethargic.

Additionally, NIU has played the much tougher strength of schedule with its last two games coming on the road against P4 competition (Maryland and Mississippi State), in which it held its own before wearing down late.

In fact, this matchup features one of the widest strength-of-schedule disparities of the weekend.

Yes, SDSU looked amazing last week in its victory over Cal, but I really do believe it caught the Bears napping in a major sleepy spot.

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Cal also essentially had six turnovers if you include failed fourth-down attempts and missed field goals in addition to three normal giveaways — two of which went the other way for touchdowns.

This is still an Aztec team that got blown out in its only road affair against a bad Washington State squad. It's also still a subpar offense that had 25% of its yardage output last week on a fluky 80-yard touchdown reception.

NIU's defense can control this game, while running back Chavon Wright and company should do just enough to keep the chains moving in NIU's extremely run-heavy offense against a San Diego State front that can be pushed around to keep this likely low-scoring affair very tight throughout.

Ultimately, I'm selling high on San Diego State in a tough spot against an NIU team I expect to have full motivation after two straight losses against a future conference opponent ahead of its move to the Mountain West next season.

Pick: Northern Illinois +3 or Better

Florida Atlantic +14 vs. Memphis

7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2

We may have arrived at the peak of the market on Memphis after its fairly fortunate win over an Arkansas team it caught in an extremely favorable situational spot (yet still trailed 28-10 at one point).

Memphis' other three victories came over Chattanooga, Georgia State and a Troy team that lost its starting quarterback to an injury early in the game.

And while the Tigers found themselves in an emotional (and physically demanding) battle with Arkansas last week, FAU enjoyed a bye week, which could prove extra beneficial for a completely brand new team under a new regime that implemented new schemes.

The offense, in particular, needed to work on getting the timing down.

So far, the quarterback and receivers have not been on the same page over the first weeks, which has led to a whopping nine interceptions (and subsequently a -8 turnover margin) against the two FBS opponents the snake-bit Owls have faced.

I expect Caden Veltkamp and that side of the ball to look much sharper on Saturday in FAU's pass-heavy Air Raid offense.

If that's the case, they should score enough to stay within two touchdowns against a Memphis defense that's much more vulnerable against the pass.

Pick: Florida Atlantic +14 or Better

Penn State -3 vs. Oregon

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC

Yes, I'm really trusting "Small Game James" in a big game. What could possibly go wrong?

While Franklin has turtled up many times in these high-profile games (which could be problematic against the very aggressive Dan Lanning), I do love this spot for the Nittany Lions, who have essentially been preparing for this matchup since spring.

They have essentially shown nothing against three cupcakes and even have had a bye week to prepare for this top-10 showdown. That's especially critical for arguably the top coordinator duo in all of college football.

Expect plenty of wrinkles (and Drew Allar-designed runs) that Oregon will not have seen on tape this year.

Yes, Oregon has looked like the much better team and likely will have shot up most power ratings due to dominant results, but this was essentially a new team with a brand-new quarterback, so it made a ton of sense for it to get the offense rolling and demolish the nobodies of the world.

So far, the Ducks have beaten Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State and Montana State. Color me less than impressed with a team everyone was seemingly down on coming into the year.

Now, everybody has changed their tune because of the destruction of an Oklahoma State team that got blown out on its home field by Tulsa and subsequently fired its long-time head coach?

Additionally, while Penn State played an FCS opponent followed by a bye week, Oregon traveled east for a conference game, then back home for the Civil War before heading back out to the East Coast.

Advantage Nittany Lions from a scheduling standpoint.

I'm personally just sticking more to my priors when it comes to these two teams. And before the season, Penn State would have been at least a touchdown favorite.

Quarterback Dante Moore has looked fantastic, but again, he's played nobody in friendly environments with clean pockets and enormous talent advantages on the outside.

This is a much stiffer test against one of the best defenses in the country, playing in prime time in front of one of college football's rowdiest environments.

I still need to see Moore perform at a high level against a real P4 defense before I buy all the way in, especially after some of the blunders I witnessed when he saw action at UCLA.

Oregon does have talent for days, but two of its most important weapons are true freshmen, who may not quite be ready to shine on this stage against a suffocating defense under the tutelage of Jim Knowles, who shut down this Will Stein attack in the College Football Playoff to end the Ducks' 2024 season with Ohio State.

From a matchup perspective, I do expect Penn State to have plenty of success on the ground, where Oregon's defense remains a bit vulnerable.

That's where everything starts for the Andy Kotelnicki offense, which features one of the best running back duos in the nation.

Maybe Penn State can't just magically turn it on after sleepwalking through its first three games without showing much, and maybe Franklin clams up again in too many big spots, and maybe Allar folds under pressure in a big game again.

But I had to lay it at what I consider a cheap price in a great situational spot.

Pick: Penn State -3 or Better

Louisiana ML +100 vs. Marshall

8 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

Well, I think it's time to swoop in with a bargain buy on the Ragin' Cajuns, who have looked downright disgusting to start the season.

They started their 2025 campaign by losing outright as double-digit favorites against Rice (although I'll give them a slight pass against a brand new offense), then didn't look great against an FCS opponent before getting stomped at Missouri, and most recently lost on the road to a previously winless Eastern Michigan squad.

Not great, Bob.

Many of those issues come down to the nonexistent quarterback play after original starter Walker Howard went down with an injury in that aforementioned opener.

Daniel Beale has arguably been the worst quarterback in the country, and dual-threat Lunch Winfield hasn't looked much better in his packages.

College Football Picks, Predictions: Week 5 Expert Bets for Georgia vs Alabama, Penn State vs Oregon, MoreRead now

With that said, I project Louisiana closer to a field-goal favorite against a downright dreadful Marshall team.

From a matchup perspective, Louisiana can't stop the run, but Marshall can't run it. Plus, the UL cornerbacks and edge rushers can help contain the Thundering Herd passing attack, which has relied heavily on hitting explosives.

On the other side of the ball, Marshall's secondary remains very vulnerable, but Louisiana can't really complete a forward pass — although the aerial attack did show at least some signs of life last time out.

It will be strength-on-strength when Louisiana has the ball with its rush offense against the Marshall defense, which has a clear strength up front.

I'm buying low on the Ragin' Cajuns in a great spot to regroup at home for their conference opener with revenge against the team that embarrassed them in the conference title game last season.

Pick: Louisiana ML -120 or Better

Colorado +7 vs. BYU

10:15 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

Well, it looks like we'll start things off at noon and hopefully finish up with a winner 13-plus hours later. Aren't college football Saturdays the best?

Yes, Colorado does have revenge for a humiliating bowl loss against BYU to end its season in 2024. More importantly, I just can't get to this number.

This is right around where BYU closed at ECU last week.

While BYU deserved to win that game and probably cover, it certainly did get a bit fortunate with a defensive touchdown (+2 turnover margin) and a couple of red-zone fourth-down stops in a game where the Cougars only had a net 14-yard edge.

After adjusting for last week's results, I still have the Buffaloes power-rated approximately 4.5 points higher than the Pirates without even giving any consideration for the Cougars traveling across the country to the East Coast for a high snap count affair and now back to Boulder.

Therefore, I can't pass up getting the same price as ECU got last week against BYU.

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has looked the part so far in his first three career games, but he's still a true freshman who has only faced Stanford, Portland and ECU.

This will be a step up in class in terms of the talent (and coordinator) faced.

Meanwhile, Colorado has faced a much more difficult schedule to date and finally has appeared to settle on a quarterback with Kaidon Salter, who looked fantastic against Wyoming, throwing for over 300 and adding another 86 on the ground.

I'm not sure what Deion Sanders was doing with the whole Ryan Staub experiment, but his disastrous start at Houston certainly weighs down some of their offensive advanced metrics.

Salter clearly gives the Buffs their best chance, and his legs add dynamism to the ground game.

He certainly looked very comfortable running the offense after some expected growing pains in a brand-new scheme. If he repeats that performance, the Buffaloes should have many opportunities to exploit some matchup advantages on the outside.

It's worth noting that Colorado is in much worse shape injury-wise. The Buffaloes will need someone (likely Teon Parks) to step up at one of the outside cornerback spots due to a pair of injuries at the position.

They'll also have to make do without two of their running backs and continue to deal with injuries along the defensive line, in addition to a first-half suspension for defensive tackle Anquin Barnes Jr..

It does at least appear that stud left tackle Jordan Seaton and the rest of the offensive line will come in at full strength.

Conversely, BYU looks relatively healthy and will even likely see the debut of Oklahoma State transfer Justin Kirkland to bolster the defensive front.

Still, I can't get to this number that I believe should be closer to 4 or 4.5. Keep in mind, the market bet Colorado heavily late against a very good Georgia Tech in the opener, which closed 3.5.

While the Yellow Jackets deserved to win and cover, it still took a late broken run to get to the window.

Pick: Colorado +7 (Play to +6 · Shop for a +7, which did pop up on Wednesday night)

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Stuckey's Other Potential Bets

Utah State vs. Vanderbilt

Saturday, September 27

12:45 p.m. ET

SEC Network

Utah State (+22.5) is on the radar at Vandy, but I may wait to see if I can get a better number at the half or live.

The Commodores have advantages all over, but I doubt they want to show too much for too long or run Diego Pavia into the ground with an absolute gauntlet coming up that includes Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Texas and Auburn.

Rutgers vs. Minnesota

Saturday, September 27

12 p.m. ET

Big Ten Network

I'm sure Minnesota (-4.5) has had this game circled since last season's loss at Rutgers against its former quarterback and offensive coordinator. I know I did.

The Gophers should have much better health out of the bye, where true freshman quarterback Drake Lindsay should benefit immensely with more time to work in Greg Harbaugh's complex offense.

They should have no issues moving the ball against this horrid Rutgers defense that suffered more injuries last week. I don't love laying points with the snail-like Gophers, but they'll find a way onto my card in some capacity.

UCF vs. Kansas State

Saturday, September 27

12 p.m. ET

Fox Sports 1

Is it time to buy low on Kansas State (-6) out of the bye against a UCF squad that hasn't played a soul?

It's Wildcats or nothing, despite how poor they've looked in what easily could have been an 0-3 start with a home loss to an FCS school.

Akron vs. Toledo

Saturday, September 27

3:30 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Toledo (-20.5) suffered its annual upset last week against Western Michigan.

I expect the Rockets to bounce back in a major way against an Akron offense that won't be able to run the ball, which should completely neuter its offense against the elite Rockets secondary.

App State vs. Boise State

Saturday, September 27

7:30 p.m. ET

FS1

I'm still waiting on confirmation on who will start at quarterback for App State (+17), but I'm strongly considering the dog against Boise State (with Maddux Madsen a bit banged up) in a game where neither defense can be trusted to get many stops.

Arizona vs. Iowa State

Saturday, September 27

7 p.m. ET

ESPN

I think I need at least a touchdown with Arizona (+6.5), but I'm looking to fade this Iowa State team in the coming weeks.

Not many teams have had close wins age worse than the Cyclones, who have beaten Kansas State, South Dakota, Iowa and Arkansas State.

It's also worth noting that the Cyclones won't have both their stud field-goal kicker and kickoff specialist due to injury, leaving those duties to a true freshman. That could certainly have an impact.

Additionally, the Iowa State defense doesn't really generate pressure, which is important for Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita, who holds onto the ball for too long at times.

We also have a similar data point between these two teams, who each played Kansas State. Arizona looked much better, albeit at home in Tucson.