Week 7 of the college football season wraps up with the evening slate, and I have two NCAAF picks that should be added to your betting card.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 7, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 23-18-2 (56.1%)
- Overall: 192-141-3 (57.7%)
2 NCAAF Picks for Week 7 Evening Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | Auburn +3.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | USC -2.5 |
Auburn +3.5 vs. Georgia
7:30 p.m. ⋅ ABC
Georgia arguably should have beaten Alabama, but it probably should have lost at Tennessee. A rightful wash, but this just isn't the same elite-tier Georgia team we saw a few years ago.
And similar to my Alabama-Missouri breakdown, I just don't think there's as wide a gap between the top SEC teams and the second-tier (where Auburn falls) than the market presumes.
Consequently, I just can't get this spread even to a field goal after adjusting for the spot and home-field advantage.
I happily took the hook with the home Tigers, who will come off a much-needed bye week after one of the nation's most vicious schedules to start the season with three road games against Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
This will mark Auburn's first marquee home game, which is even more critical for this specific squad with Jackson Arnold at the helm.
He clearly struggled in hostile environments with the pre-snap communication between him and Hugh Freeze, who now can act as Arnold's personal movie director before each play in the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare Stadium.
That's massive for a limited quarterback like Arnold, who struggles to read defenses and change plays on his own.
He may also benefit greatly from the bye week in a brand-new offense after a number of very difficult tests to start 2025, where the timing was clearly off with his receivers.
That's even more important against a Georgia defense that remains vulnerable on the back end in coverage, which could lead to banner days for the talented Auburn wide receivers.
It should also result in increased success on passing downs, an area where Arnold struggled on the road.
Georgia also doesn't boast the same ferocious pass rush as your older brother's version of the Dawgs, who only have seven sacks on the entire season.
Auburn's front struggled to contain all of the twists and stunts it saw from Texas A&M and Oklahoma, but that hasn't really been a strength of a Bulldog pass rush that ranks 108th in sacks per game.
For comparison, the Aggies and Sooners rank in the top six nationally and top 15 if you remove matchups against Auburn.
And while Georgia's run defense has graded out exceptionally well, it has yet to really face a mobile quarterback like Arnold, and those have given Kirby Smart's defenses fits in the past.
Expect Freeze, one of the best play designers and game-planners in the sport, to attack those vulnerabilities, especially with a full two weeks to prepare for this particular matchup with the healthiest roster he has had all season.
When Georgia has the ball, Auburn's secondary will need to step up against the Georgia wideouts, who will have an advantage on the outside.
However, I don't expect the Bulldogs to get much on the ground against an immovable Tiger run defense that ranks in the top three nationally in both EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed.
That should open up opportunities for Auburn's elite pass rushers, led by Keldric Faulk, to wreak Havoc on Gunner Stockton, whose completion percentage drops nearly 35 percentage points when under pressure compared to when kept clean.
To me, Auburn profiles as a play-on team in big games at home this season and either an avoid or fade on the road.
Although, the Tigers did win easily in Waco and actually had chances to pull off upsets in both Norman (despite Venables' inside knowledge of Arnold's strengths and weaknesses) and College Station — two of the toughest places to play in the country — even with those pre-snap communication limitations.
The Tigers did get severely outplayed by the Aggies but easily could have beaten the Sooners if not for a few brutal calls that went against them.
I'd argue Auburn has the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball in this game and has the more talented skill-position group in a matchup of two vulnerable secondaries.
Georgia has the better quarterback, which matters, but I don't consider Stockton to be elite. Throw in the spot and the Freeze edge at home off the bye, and I had to take the hook here with the home pup.
Notable Nugget
Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze owns a 33-17 ATS (66%) record as an underdog, covering by over six points per game. That includes an 18-6 (75%) mark when catching a touchdown or less, covering by an average of just under 11 points per game.
Pick: Auburn +3.5
USC -2.5 vs. Michigan
7:30 p.m. ⋅ NBC
On the surface, this is the best situational spot of the season for the Trojans, who will certainly benefit from a bye week, which will allow them a chance to get healthy on both sides of the ball.
The Big Ten travel factor across time zones is also in play for the Wolverines, who won an ugly game last week against a severely shorthanded Wisconsin team that started its third-string quarterback.
Despite having a chance to win late vs. Illinois, the Trojans didn't look great in Champaign.
However, that was one of the worst situational spots of the season. USC had to deal with tough travel for the earliest kick of the day after having the latest start time in the previous week.
It also had to face an Illinois team that got completely embarrassed the week prior against Indiana. The Trojans were undoubtedly going to get the Illini's best effort.
More importantly, USC played that game with one hand tied behind its back due to significant injuries, in addition to a food poisoning bout the night before the game that impacted a few key starters.
That also led to a late scratch of its best defensive player, Kamari Ramsey, who wears the green dot. His absence would be meaningful regardless, but finding out less than 24 hours prior to kick is less than ideal, especially with other injuries in the secondary.
The Trojans also lost starting cornerback DeCarlos Nicholson during that game, which left them with two freshmen on the outside and a true freshman safety thrown into the fire at slot cornerback in his first real collegiate action.
That's a nightmare scenario without your green dot and a few key defensive linemen dealing with food poisoning.
Things will look much different for USC off the bye with Ramsey and Nicholson back. There's also a chance Ramsey could see more time at his more natural safety position with the potential season debut of highly-touted freshman Alex Graham in the slot.
Regardless, it won't be a complete disaster, and highly-respected defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn will surely benefit from the two weeks leading up to this game.
Additionally, the USC offense wasn't at full strength in Champaign with injured star wideout Ja'Kobi Lane playing less than half of the offensive snaps.
More importantly, the Trojans were without stud left tackle Elijah Paige, who suffered an injury against Michigan State.
That forced right tackle Justin Tauanuu to move to the left side, where he struggled, and a guard to fill his vacancy. Well, it looks like Paige — the quarterback of that group up front — will return this week, and Lane should be closer to 100%.
It can't be overstated how critical that is for a USC offense that I consider one of the best in the nation.
Heading into the Illinois game, everybody was talking about USC as a potential College Football Playoff sleeper. Now, all of those same people have seemingly completely abandoned ship after one road loss in a brutal spot with material injuries (and a food poisoning breakout) against a ranked team on a last-second field goal?
Time to buy low with the now much healthier Trojans in an advantageous situational spot against a Michigan offense that still lacks the weapons to fully exploit some of the holes on the USC defense.
At full strength, USC has the best offense in the country for my money.
While Michigan does have a very good defense, there are some holes in the secondary that can be exploited by quarterback Jayden Maiava, who has completed 70% of his passes (with 11 touchdowns to just one pick) while leading the country with 11.3 yards per attempt.
On the season, he's one of five quarterbacks with an NFL QB Rating north of 130.
For reference, stud Michigan freshman Bryce Underwood, who has a very bright future in Ann Arbor, ranks 84th in that department (88.1) among 125 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Not all of that is on Underwood, who continues to improve with each passing week. While he does have only two big-time throws to four turnover-worthy plays, drops have plagued an underwhelming wide receiver room (although Andrew Marsh's recent emergence is noteworthy), and the offensive line still has issues.
Running back Justice Haynes and company will find success on the ground against USC.
But I don't think it will be enough to keep up with a fully healthy Trojan offensive machine with a potential top-five quarterback, top-three receiver duo and dynamic rushing attack led by stud transfer Waymond Jordan (who's averaging 7.0 yards per carry), which is where it all starts for a Lincoln Riley attack.
Anything under a field goal is good, in my opinion.
Notable Nugget
Since the Big Ten added the West Coast teams prior to the start of last season, teams traveling two-plus time zones have gone 12-21 both ATS and SU (36.4%) in league play.
Pick: USC -2.5
