Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) isn't the sexiest NFL award, but it's perennially one of my favorite awards to bet on.
As I continue to dive into the 2025 NFL awards, it can be pretty easy to tune out the boring defense awards, but DPOY is typically one of the most predictable awards on the slate — which can mean great value for bettors.
Just like many team sports, defense doesn't garner as much attention. That often leads voters to the actual best player from a shorter list of name-brand options, without the sort of surprises and narratives that tend to make other awards more goofy and unpredictable.
Patrick Surtain is the reigning DPOY after a season shutting down opposing receivers for Vance Joseph's attacking Broncos defense. Surtain was a bit of an outlier on the recent winner pattern, so we'd better talk about what to do with that going forward.
Let's start by building a historical profile of recent DPOY winners and talk about how Surtain's win fits in, then get to one of my favorite bets of the entire awards market heading into the new 2025 NFL season.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Predictions
Who Usually Wins Defensive Player of the Year?
Let's try to spot some patterns from the 10 most recent DPOY winners:
- 2024 Patrick Surtain, Broncos
- 2023 Myles Garrett, Browns
- 2022 Nick Bosa, 49ers
- 2021 T.J. Watt, Steelers
- 2020 Aaron Donald, Rams
- 2019 Stephon Gilmore, Patriots
- 2018 Aaron Donald, Rams
- 2017 Aaron Donald, Rams
- 2016 Khalil Mack, Raiders
- 2015 J.J. Watt, Texans
1. The same DPOY candidates get votes year after year.
Defense is about respect.
Once the league's elite defenders earn the respect of the voting base, they tend to keep getting votes year after year. There are only 50 voters, but Aaron Donald received at least one first-place vote in seven straight seasons.
Makes sense for the best defender in the league!
Donald and J.J. Watt are retired now, but they won almost half of the last 13 DPOYs.
Only eight players have multiple DPOY awards in NFL history, and it's a Hall of Fame list — Donald (x3), Watt (x3), Ray Lewis, Reggie White, Bruce Smith, Lawrence Taylor (x3), Mike Singletary and Joe Greene.
While the same guys keep getting votes, you better be really good to win that second DPOY.
The bigger takeaway: seven of the last 11 winners finished in the top six in DPOY voting previously — and three of the other four had made First Team All-Pro before.
There are approximately 800 defenders rostered in the NFL, and only six to eight of them are really in the mix most years.
2. Modern winners get after the quarterback and rack up sacks.
Eight of the last 10 DPOY winners were pass rushers.
In 2023, the top four vote getters recorded 14, 19, 14 and 14.5 sacks. All four finished top eight in the NFL in sacks.
Turns out it really was that simple.
Surtain was an exception to the norm in the mold of Stephon Gilmore. Both won DPOY in the last decade in a year where there wasn't a great pass-rushing option as a shutdown corner on one of the league's true elite defenses.
The other eight winners got after the quarterback to the tune of 16.1 sacks on average their winning seasons. All eight had at least 11 sacks.
Gilmore was an exception to the norm — he led the league in interceptions and passes defensed for a No. 1 Patriots defense.
The other nine winners got after the quarterback for 16.5 sacks on average in their winning season. All eight had at least 11 sacks; half of them had over 17 — more than one per game!
The measure is clear, and the bar is very high.
3. We're looking for a defender in his prime, ideally age 25-27.
Six of the last 10 winners were between 25-27 years old, with an average age just under 27 over the past decade. Every single one of them was between 24-29 years old.
The last DPOY in his 30s was Charles Woodson all the way back in 2009. Gilmore and Donald won at 29, but seven of the last 10 winners were 27 or younger for most of their winning season.
Tenure can also be predictive.
Six of the last 10 DPOYs won in either their fourth or fifth NFL season, with the average winner in year 5.2. Even Surtain fits that trend.
4. This isn't a team award — DPOY is about individual brilliance.
You might assume voters just choose the best defender from the best defense like often in the NBA, but that's not always the case.
Only four of the last 10 DPOYs played on a defense that finished in the top 10 in points allowed per game. Just six of the 10 played for teams that finished in the top 12 in Defensive DVOA.
In fact, the average DPOY played for a team ranked 10th in points allowed per game allowed and ninth in Defensive DVOA.
That's not bad! But it's not exactly great, not even in the top quarter of the league.
Only three winners in the last decade finished top four in both categories — and two of them were our big outliers: Surtain and Gilmore. In fact, just as many DPOYs finished on teams 20th or worse in PPG allowed.
You do need to win, though. All 10 DPOYs won at least nine games, with an average of 11.1 wins.
If there's one super elite defense, voters may opt for best-player-best-team. Otherwise, they tend to just pick the best, most impactful defender — which is usually just the guy with all the sacks.
So what are we looking for in a Defensive Player of the Year?
We want the league's best defender, usually a pass rusher. It's probably someone entering the season age 24-27 with 15+ sacks on a top-10 defense playing for a team with 9+ wins. And we should start with the previous top-six vote-getters.
So what happened with Surtain, and who should we consider this year?
Was Patrick Surtain an Outlier or a Sign of Change to Come?
Surtain had a great season, but he was an outlier and shouldn't change the way we perceive or bet DPOY.
It's important to consider the context of the year in which Surtain won. In other words, look what happened to last year's betting favorites, the pass rushers who usually win this award.
Micah Parsons was brilliant in the second half of the season, but missed a chunk of the first half, so he was already out. Aidan Hutchinson was cruising to a DPOY with 7.5 sacks in five games before going out for the season. Nick Bosa got hurt, too. Myles Garrett was outstanding and probably deserving as ever, but the Browns defense cratered and he was irrelevant. T.J. Watt was good but fell off late.
The league's best pass rushers all disqualified themselves in the same season. Alas — it happens.
If even one of those guys turns in a typical campaign, they're probably DPOY. Instead, all of them were out and the field was blown wide open.
Don't believe me? Just look at the other names at the top of the voting. Garrett finished third on a 3-14 team.
Trey Hendrickson — another pass rusher — finished second on a terrible Bengals defense. Zack Baun went from the scrap heap to top five in DPOY voting. Kerby Joseph — Kerby Joseph!? — finished top six at safety for the Lions.
These are all terrific defenders. But are any of them the top defender in the league, or even close?
Surtain didn't beat out all the great pass rushers last season. They just beat themselves.
The exception proves the rule. Surtain can keep his trophy, but we'll keep our historical profile and betting expectation going forward too.
Which means …
No Pass Rush? No Thanks!
CB Patrick Surtain, Broncos +4000
S Kyle Hamilton, Ravens +5000
LB Zack Baun, Eagles +6000
CB Derek Stingley Jr., Texans +7000
LB Fred Warner, 49ers +7500
If you're not convinced this is still a pass rushers' award, it might help to know that sportsbooks sure seem to think so.
The top 11 names in betting odds are all pass rushers.
These are the top alternatives, and I love a superstar safety, corner or linebacker as much as the next guy, but we have to follow the votes.
This group of guys has plenty of reputation and all probably deserve to be in the mix. You could argue they already are.
Baun finished top six last season, Warner the year before. But top six doesn't win us anything.
Voters still tend to fall back on the numbers, and sacks are easy, flashy numbers.
We're following the clear precedent until clearly proven otherwise. We're betting pass rushers, and pass rushers only.
Probably Too Old Now
Myles Garrett, Browns +850
T.J. Watt, Steelers +950
Trey Hendrickson, Bengals +3500
Chris Jones, Chiefs +6000
Danielle Hunter, Texans +8000
Football is a young man's game, and all of these guys are on the wrong side of 30.
Hendrickson just finished runner-up in DPOY voting and has the media narrative on his side after contract issues with the Bengals. He has logged 13.5+ sacks in four of the last five seasons — but he never even made a DPOY ballot before last year, and didn't finish top eight in PFF grade at edge rusher in any of the last three years. Good, maybe great, but not elite.
Watt certainly was elite. He finished with 11.5 sacks but that was a big drop-off after leading the league in three of the four previous seasons with 15, 19 and 22.5.
Watt is still averaging almost a sack per game since his rookie season and has finished top four in DPOY voting five of the last six seasons — all but an injury year.
All-time greats tend to break these sort of rules, but last year was probably Watt's last real chance to add a second trophy and he couldn't quite finish the job.
Garrett has 95.5 sacks in 106 games since his rookie season with at least 12 sacks in five straight, and he's averaged 15 over the last four seasons with three top-five DPOY finishes. Remember though, voters seem to factor winning into the equation.
The Browns look awful, and Garrett turns 30 by season's end. History says his window has probably closed for this award.
I wouldn't be stunned if Garrett or Watt contended for DPOY, but history is not on their side, and they're far too short a number to bet.
Father Time is undefeated.
Might Still Be Too Soon
Will Anderson, Texans +1600
Jared Verse, Rams +1600
Jalen Carter, Eagles +2200
Every DPOY in the last decade has been age 24-29, and only one of them won before his fourth season in the NFL.
Carter is 24, but he and Anderson are only in their third NFL season, and Verse is but a sophomore.
Remember, defense is about reputation.
This award is hard to distinguish, and there aren't many numbers to go on. If one of these guys racks up 20 sacks that might speak for itself.
But Carter plays at tackle, Verse has only 4.5 sacks in his career, and Anderson is an all-around defender who adds value in run defense, but has yet to put up a huge sack total.
Any of these three — maybe all of them! — could be future DPOY winners. But usually with defense awards across all sports, you have to establish yourself as worthy of the award for a season and earn voters' respect before you actually earn their vote.
Life's not fair, but we want a winning ticket. So let's take a look at the small handful of guys that do seem to fit the build.
Close, But No Cigar
Maxx Crosby, Raiders +1600
Nik Bonitto, Broncos +4000
Dexter Lawrence, Giants +6000
Brian Burns, Giants +10000
So, we're looking for a pass rusher capable of putting up 15+ sacks, and we want someone between 24-29 years old in at least year four of his career.
Lawrence and Crosby are 28, entering year seven of their careers. That's a touch on the high side.
Crosby plays a ton of snaps but had just 7.5 sacks last season and has only one year over 12.5.
Lawrence had a career-high 9.0 sacks last season and is clearly one of the top defensive tackles in the league, but even in a career-best season in a wide-open DPOY field, he didn't get a single vote.
Neither guy plays on a likely playoff team, and the Raiders defense might be awful. These are names that are probably "in the conversation" and on ballots to end the season, but they're unlikely winners.
Bonitto enters year four of his career at age 26, and maybe last year's surprising 13.5-sack campaign was just the start of his breakout.
The advanced metrics suggest Bonitto's sack total will regress to the mean, though, and he barely finished top 20 in PFF grade as an edge rusher, with pretty poor run defense.
It's hard to believe he's earned the reputation to win an award this prestigious.
These guys fit the bill well enough but aren't quite bullseyes — not like the three guys we've yet to talk about.
Two Bullseyes Worthy of Consideration
Nick Bosa, 49ers +1500
Voters like to reward previous winners, with six of the last 13 DPOY trophies going to the same two players. Could Nick Bosa join the historic list of repeat winners?
Bosa is coming off a second consecutive disappointing year, with just 9.0 sacks last season after 10.5 the year before, way down from 15 and 18.5 the two previous seasons.
But advanced metrics and PFF grade still say Bosa is an elite pass rusher, and a return to a more edge-friendly Robert Saleh scheme could be very welcome after this defense struggled under departed DCs Steve Wilks and Nick Sorenson the last two years.
Bosa is 27, but only for another couple months, and he's in year seven of his career. That's just barely inside our profile, though the constant nagging injuries never help. Neither will playing on a defensive line with pretty weak tackles, though rookie edge rusher Mykel Williams on the other side could help.
The 49ers defense disappointed last season but all signs point to San Francisco contending in the NFC, and Bosa should have another big season.
He's a worthy bet at a discounted +1500 price if you're building a DPOY position, like we usually do.
Aidan Hutchinson, Lions +750
Last year, Hutchinson was the last cut from my preseason betting position — and I was wrong.
He started the season on an absolute tear, racking up 7.5 sacks in five games, and was a clear DPOY favorite who would've likely coasted to victory (considering the field) before an injury sidelined him for the season.
Context is important, though.
Hutchinson lucked into a stretch of weak and backup tackles against him early last season, most notably for Tampa Bay when he piled up 4.5 sacks in one game. You win DPOY over 17 games, not a small five-game sample, and we still haven't seen Hutchinson play quite at that level for a full season.
He also enters the year still coming off a major injury — likely not fully healthy — and he's playing on a defensive line already crushed by injuries with Alim McNeill, Levi Onwuzurike and Josh Paschal sidelined to start the season.
Despite all that, we're paying almost double the price Hutchinson was listed at last season, healthy and on a healthier, better team.
I'm taking a deep breath and making Hutchinson my last cut a second straight season — though I'm open to adding him in a few weeks if he looks fully healthy and gets McNeill back on the line next to him.
Hutchinson and Bosa are perfectly defensible DPOY bets, and most years I'd bet them among three or four top options building a DPOY position. But this year I'm going all-in on the one candidate I love.
The Discounted Superstar You Simply Must Bet
Micah Parsons, Cowboys +1350 Circa
Parsons was the betting favorite in each of the last two seasons, and he'd absolutely be my favorite again if I were making the odds.
It looked like Parsons would run away with DPOY in 2022 when he racked up eight sacks in seven games to start the season, but he slowed down in the second half and fell short. The next season was a similar story, with 11.5 sacks in 11 games before sputtering to the finish line.
Last fall, Parsons got injured early and missed a few games, but he was an absolute monster when he returned with 11 sacks in nine games — a 21-sack pace over a full season.
Parsons is 26 years old and playing in year five of his career — he's an absolute bullseye for our target profile, right in the center of his prime.
He's the second player in NFL history to record at least 12 sacks in each of his first four seasons in the NFL — and the other one is Reggie White.
Parsons leads the league in both pressures (126) and Pass Rush Win Rate (31%) since 2023 despite missing time last year, and despite also leading the league in double-team rate last season at 31.5%. That should not be possible.
However you slice it, Parsons is the single most deadly defender in the NFL today, smack dab in the middle of his prime.
Hey, do you think someone could tell Jerry Jones?
Parsons has been a high-profile name this August as he waits for a well-deserved contract extension, but I think that's just buying us value on the number. This is what Jones does. He likes to be cheap, and he likes to be the story — but he also likes to win. Jones will pay Parsons soon enough. He always does.
Even if Parsons misses a game or two to start the season, that might only help our case. Over the last four years since drafting Parsons, the Cowboys have the No. 1 EPA per play defensively with Parsons on the field — but they plummet all the way to 31st in over 1,000 plays with him off, according to Bill Barnwell.
If Parsons sits out Week 1 and Dallas gets wrecked by the Eagles on Opening Night, then Jones caves and pays Parsons just in time to return and prove how much better the Cowboys defense with him, that only adds to the DPOY narrative.
Not that Parsons needs any help. He's finished top three in DPOY voting in all three of his healthy seasons, and he gets his sacks in bunches so even a missed game or two probably isn't a big deal.
It seems pretty clear Parsons will win DPOY at some point in his career, maybe more than one. He would be my clear favorite for an award we overwhelmingly give to favorites.
Parsons was priced at +600 last season; I wouldn't price him longer than +300. But you can bet him at +800 at DraftKings or Caesars, or an outlandish +1350 at Circa.
I don't just like Micah Parsons for DPOY — I absolutely love him. He's my favorite awards bet of the entire 2025 awards circuit, and I'm investing multiple units while we get this outrageous discount.
Defensive Player of the Year Best Bet
- Micah Parsons +1350 (2.5 units)
