2024-25 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Tracker

The Positions

Rookie of the Year is not a quarterback-only award, like the Heisman or NFL MVP. In fact, it was really a running back-only award until the early 2000s.

Then QBs started playing more as rookies and have won nine of the last 20. Running backs and wide receivers have won the other 11.

And more importantly…

Wide receivers have won just four times since 2000. And those four are spread out, not concentrated in the last few years when WRs started getting drafted higher than ever and teams began throwing more.

Wide receivers typically take a little longer to develop, but players like Ja'Marr Chase (winner) and Justin Jefferson (runner-up in 2020, and would've been a winner in many seasons) came in fully ready. Maybe it's an LSU thing.

But this year, wide receivers dominate the top of the odds board with so few rookie quarterbacks expected to start Week 1.

The Voting

How does the voting work?

Who votes: 50 Associated Press members who cover the NFL get votes. The NFL considers the AP Rookie of the Year award its official honor.

How many votes: Voters pick one player, so there are only 50 total ballots. It's not like the Heisman, where voters can rank multiple players.

When do they vote? End of the regular season.

Any regional voting biases? Not really, since the NFL is so national.

How many players get votes? Anywhere from 2-5. It's pretty concentrated around the top players, and the winner is pretty obvious most years. There's rarely a controversy about who should have won.

Since 2010, players to receive votes have been evenly split between QBs, RBs and WRs.

The Narrative

Does a player need some "positive narrative" in their favor to win?

Sort of. It doesn't hurt if a player has some feel-good story or the media pushes a narrative about that player early in the season, but this award is more about stats than narrative.

Quarterbacks probably need narrative more than any other position. Mac Jones didn't have a great statistical season in 2021 (67.6%, 3,801 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs).

But he was neck-and-neck with Ja'Marr Chase in the Rookie of the Year betting market all season because he:

1. Started as a rookie for a historic franchise trying to replace an all-time QB.
2. Was (by far) the best rookie QB in the class, when most expected him to be fourth or fifth-best.
3. The Patriots were better than people expected.

It's tricky to adjust stats for position, but Najee Harris probably had a better year than Jones with over 1,600 total yards and 10 TDs and didn't get a single vote.

The narrative matters, but stats will usually win out.

The Stats

What kinds of stats do voters care about?

Raw stats matter. Actual passing or rushing yards are a much more valuable currency than air yards or yards per catch. Even if you're a hyper-efficient RB2, it'll be tough to win.

Running backs and wide receivers generally need 1,300+ total yards. Quarterbacks don't need to put up truly great seasons — just great for rookies.

Running backs and wide receivers need to put up really good statistical seasons — ones that make it seem like they're not rookies.

You also have to play. You can't come in halfway through the season or miss a ton of games to injury.

Since 2010:

• 9 winners played 15+ games.
• 28-of-39 vote-getters played every game.

Deshaun Watson is the only players to get votes while playing single-digit games. So, quarterbacks essentially need to be starting in September to have a shot.

You need volume. Because raw stats matter, you need volume and opportunity. Again, efficiency is not an accepted currency.

This leads into the next point.

The Team

Does the winner have to play for a good team?

ROY winners can play for bad teams — even quarterbacks. And that opens up pretty much the entire betting pool.

ROY winners since 2010 averaged about 7.9 wins per year. Some were on really bad teams (Saquon Barkley, 3-13) and some were on really good teams (Dak Prescott, 13-3). Four of the last six QBs to win have finished below .500.

Bad teams are usually drafting the best players and use them immediately because they don't have any better options.

Past NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Winners

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud took home the honors of the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, but who will win it in 2024? Here's a look at some past winners.

Data via SportsOddsHistory

Year	Winner	Position
2014	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR
2015	Todd Gurley	RB
2016	Dak Prescott	QB
2017	Alvin Kamara	RB
2018	Saquon Barkley	RB
2019	Kyler Murray	QB
2020	Justin Herbert	QB
2021	Ja'Marr Chase	WR
2022	Garrett Wilson	WR
2023	C.J. Stroud	QB