Bo has cleared this in 4 of his last 5 games, but a deeper look shows he’s scrambling at a much lower rate this season, with only 2 scrambles over his last 3 games. Both of those went for 21+ yards, which is the clear path for this prop to lose early.. 1 or 2 long scrambles and it’s toast. Like every prop, there’s a very real way it loses, and that’s it. Nix has only scrambled on 4.5% of his dropbacks this season compared to 7.7% as a rookie. I actually think he should be scrambling more since he’s a good runner, but he’s playing more in structure this year and behind an elite offensive line that keeps his pocket clean. He should have one of his cleanest pockets of the season against a Raiders defense that ranks 2nd worst in pressure rate. Maxx Crosby has the lowest pressure rate of his career because teams are doubling him and the rest of the Raiders pass rush hasn’t stepped up. That means Nix should face even less pressure that would push him out of the pocket to use his legs. I still expect 1-2 scrambles and maybe a design run or two, but the Raiders have been one of the best teams at limiting yards on scrambles, allowing just 5.3 yards per scramble (3rd lowest in the league) despite facing several mobile QBs. Plus, they’ve been more aggressive with where their safeties line up, with Jeremy Chinn playing 0 snaps deep last week and Isaiah Pola-Mao lining up 3 yards closer to the line of scrimmage. A similar approach this week could limit the odds of Nix hitting another 20+ yard scramble. It’s possible he pops one early, but I think the market is a bit inflated based on those recent long runs. I have this closer to 18.5 yards with around a 59% chance he stays under 21.5.

Action Island pick