NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes & Aaron Rodgers, Then Everyone Else
Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes
- Even in the middle of the offseason, there's been plenty of movement since 2021 NFL MVP odds opened.
- Find the latest odds outlined below, complete with a tracker to compare current lines to the openers.
NFL MVP Odds
Samantha Previte: With the bulk of free agency behind us, still leading 2021 NFL MVP odds is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at +600 (14.29% implied probability). The 25-year-old has already earned numerous awards in his short career including the NFL MVP, NFL Offensive Player of the Year, first-team All-Pro, three Pro Bowl nominations, Super Bowl LIV MVP and one Super Bowl ring.
Next up is Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at +800 (11.11%), who has already won the award three times and is the reigning MVP. The 37-year-old is coming off one of his best seasons to date and led the league in passer rating, passing touchdowns and completion percentage. He is a strong bet, especially if Green Bay (finally) drafts another weapon.
There’s a significant drop-off after Rodgers with Bills QB Josh Allen at third with +1300 odds (7.14%). Expectations are high heading into 2021 for 24-year-old Allen, who is fresh off of his best season in which he earned Pro Bowl honors, second-team All-Pro honors and led the Bills to their first AFC Championship appearance since 1993.
Tied for the fourth-shortest odds are Buccaneers QB Tom Brady and Rams QB Matthew Stafford at +1400 (6.67%). Brady, 43, is the reigning Super Bowl MVP and has won the NFL MVP award three times in his 21-year career. This will be 33-year-old Stafford’s first season in Los Angeles after spending his first 12 seasons with the Lions.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott are next at +1600 (5.88%). Jackson, 24, won the NFL MVP award in 2019 while Prescott, 27, is coming off of a catastrophic ankle injury.
Next up are Cardinals QB Kyler Murray and Seahawks QB Russell Wilson — who was an early favorite for MVP last season — at +2000 (4.76%) and Chargers QB Justin Herbert and Titans QB Ryan Tannehill at +2500 (3.85%), none of whom have won the award in the past.
The first 11 players listed on DraftKings are quarterbacks. Titans running back Derrick Henry and Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey have the highest odds for a non-quarterback player and are tied for 12th at +3300 (2.94%).
A non-quarterback has not won the award since Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012. The past eight consecutive winners have been quarterbacks and 18 of the winners since 2000 have been quarterbacks (four running backs).
Past NFL MVP Odds Updates
Katie Richcreek: It was a two-man race, but it took until Week 16 for Aaron Rodgers to pull ahead of Patrick Mahomes on the oddsboard for 2020 NFL MVP before officially claiming the hardware at the end of the season.
Now, Mahomes and Rodgers find themselves atop the board once again for 2021 — Mahomes’ +500 odds (bet $100 to net a $500 profit) give him a 16.7% implied probability to win the award while Rodgers’ +800 odds give him an 11.1% implied probability (convert more odds with our calculator).
Both led their teams to the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences in 2020 on the heels of phenomenal regular-season performances:
- Mahomes (14-2): 66.3% comp; 4,740 yards; 38 TDs; 6 INTs; 82.9 QBR
- Rodgers (13-3): 70.7% comp; 4,299 yards; 48 TDs; 5 INTs; 84.4 QBR
It’s no surprise that, given their MVP odds, the Chiefs and Packers open the 2021 season with the best odds to win Super Bowl 56.
Josh Allen and Russell Wilson, who entered the 2020 race at various points, are tied for the third-best MVP odds at +1300. The next crop of quarterbacks on the board are led by Matthew Stafford, whose MVP odds rose in the wake of being traded from the Lions to the Rams to kickstart the offseason QB carousel.
As for non-QBs, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey share honors of being the highest running backs on the board, tied at +3300 odds.
More QBs are expected to find new homes in the coming months, either via trade or during free agency. We’ll be tracking how the MVP odds shift as that offseason movement unfolds, so be sure to keep this page bookmarked until Week 1 kicks off.