NFL MVP Odds: Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston Risers After Week 1
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay
- The Rams' Matthew Stafford has seen his odds to win MVP rise from +1800 to +800 after a dominant Week 1 performance against the Bears.
- Saints starting quarterback Jameis Winston threw five touchdowns and saw his MVP odds rise from +4000 to +2500.
- The Packers' Aaron Rodgers was the biggest faller, with a no touchdown, two interception outing against New Orleans responsible for his drop in odds from +1000 to +1600.
NFL MVP Odds
Odds via DraftKings (up to +5000)
Sept. 13 Update
Aaron Rodgers’ odds have taken a massive tumble after he threw for just 133 yards with two interceptions in a 38-3 defeat to the New Orleans Saints. His odds to win MVP have fallen from +1000 to +1600.
The reigning NFL MVP now tied for eighth-most likely to win the award after having had the second-best odds before the season.
Matthew Stafford saw his odds shoot up from +1800 to +800 after a dominant performance in which he went 20-for-26 with 321 yards and three touchdowns. The Rams decimated the Bears 34-14.
The former Lion is now the second-best MVP candidate.
Another notable riser is Jameis Winston, who threw five touchdown passes against the Packers on Sunday. His odds shot up from +4000 to +2500.
Sept. 8 Update
Dak Prescott’s line has moved the most since August, with his MVP odds dropping from 16/1 to 18/1 at DraftKings.
Every other player’s odds above has stayed the same since late August.
Overall MVP odds look to stay the same heading into Week 1, which begins tomorrow between the Cowboys and Buccaneers.
August 24 Update
While nothing has changed at the top of the oddsboard — it’s still Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers at the top — some chasers are getting closer as the NFL regular season nears.
According to odds at DraftKings, Rodgers has slipped two notches down from +800 to +1000 while quarterbacks Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert are among those moving.
Wilson was +2000 back in April but is now +1400, behind just Mahomes, Rodgers and Josh Allen. Herbert (+1800) and Murray (+1600) both jumped from +2000 as well.
Other notable adjustments include Carson Wentz falling from +3300 to +5000 and Cam Newton dropping to +6500 from +5000.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is now +3500 after being listed at +5000 in April.
A big preseason push to be the full-time starter in New Orleans has Jameis Winston on the move, as P.J. Walsh covered here.
Past NFL MVP Odds Updates
Samantha Previte: With the bulk of free agency behind us, still leading 2021 NFL MVP odds is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at +600 (14.29% implied probability). The 25-year-old has already earned numerous awards in his short career including the NFL MVP, NFL Offensive Player of the Year, first-team All-Pro, three Pro Bowl nominations, Super Bowl LIV MVP and one Super Bowl ring.
Next up is Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at +800 (11.11%), who has already won the award three times and is the reigning MVP. The 37-year-old is coming off one of his best seasons to date and led the league in passer rating, passing touchdowns and completion percentage. He is a strong bet, especially if Green Bay (finally) drafts another weapon.
There’s a significant drop-off after Rodgers with Bills QB Josh Allen at third with +1300 odds (7.14%). Expectations are high heading into 2021 for 24-year-old Allen, who is fresh off of his best season in which he earned Pro Bowl honors, second-team All-Pro honors and led the Bills to their first AFC Championship appearance since 1993.
Tied for the fourth-shortest odds are Buccaneers QB Tom Brady and Rams QB Matthew Stafford at +1400 (6.67%). Brady, 43, is the reigning Super Bowl MVP and has won the NFL MVP award three times in his 21-year career. This will be 33-year-old Stafford’s first season in Los Angeles after spending his first 12 seasons with the Lions.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott are next at +1600 (5.88%). Jackson, 24, won the NFL MVP award in 2019 while Prescott, 27, is coming off of a catastrophic ankle injury.
Next up are Cardinals QB Kyler Murray and Seahawks QB Russell Wilson — who was an early favorite for MVP last season — at +2000 (4.76%) and Chargers QB Justin Herbert and Titans QB Ryan Tannehill at +2500 (3.85%), none of whom have won the award in the past.
The first 11 players listed on DraftKings are quarterbacks. Titans running back Derrick Henry and Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey have the highest odds for a non-quarterback player and are tied for 12th at +3300 (2.94%).
A non-quarterback has not won the award since Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012. The past eight consecutive winners have been quarterbacks and 18 of the winners since 2000 have been quarterbacks (four running backs).
Katie Richcreek: It was a two-man race, but it took until Week 16 for Aaron Rodgers to pull ahead of Patrick Mahomes on the oddsboard for 2020 NFL MVP before officially claiming the hardware at the end of the season.
Now, Mahomes and Rodgers find themselves atop the board once again for 2021 — Mahomes’ +500 odds (bet $100 to net a $500 profit) give him a 16.7% implied probability to win the award while Rodgers’ +800 odds give him an 11.1% implied probability (convert more odds with our calculator).
Both led their teams to the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences in 2020 on the heels of phenomenal regular-season performances:
- Mahomes (14-2): 66.3% comp; 4,740 yards; 38 TDs; 6 INTs; 82.9 QBR
- Rodgers (13-3): 70.7% comp; 4,299 yards; 48 TDs; 5 INTs; 84.4 QBR
It’s no surprise that, given their MVP odds, the Chiefs and Packers open the 2021 season with the best odds to win Super Bowl 56.
Josh Allen and Russell Wilson, who entered the 2020 race at various points, are tied for the third-best MVP odds at +1300. The next crop of quarterbacks on the board are led by Matthew Stafford, whose MVP odds rose in the wake of being traded from the Lions to the Rams to kickstart the offseason QB carousel.
As for non-QBs, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey share honors of being the highest running backs on the board, tied at +3300 odds.
More QBs are expected to find new homes in the coming months, either via trade or during free agency. We’ll be tracking how the MVP odds shift as that offseason movement unfolds, so be sure to keep this page bookmarked until Week 1 kicks off.