2024-25 NFL MVP Odds Tracker: Lines for the NFL's Biggest Stars

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PlayerOdds
Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills-400
Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens+300
Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals+2200
Saquon Barkley - Philadelphia Eagles+7000
Jared Goff - Detroit Lions+10000
Sam Darnold - Minnesota Vikings+10000
Jayden Daniels - Washington Commanders+20000
Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers+40000
Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs+40000
Derrick Henry - Baltimore Ravens+50000

 Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, updated in real-time. Confused? Learn more about how American odds work.

A quarterback’s been named MVP 11 years in a row and all but once over the past 18. So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the top 18 favorites to win it this year are all QBs.

Patrick Mahomes is the favorite once again as he looks to win the third MVP of his career as he previously won it in 2018 and 2022. He’d become the seventh player to win at least three, joining Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Jim Brown and Johnny Unitas.

Josh Allen had been favored after Week 3 but has started to slide down the odds board. 

Allen and Mahomes go head-to-head in Buffalo in November, and that might be where the MVP is eventually decided.

Lamar Jackson is back in the MVP conversation after a difficult start. C.J. Stroud is also in legitimate contention. 

Here are the main criteria for selecting the NFL MVP (and a guide on how to bet this market), one developed by my colleague and data guru Brandon Anderson.

  1. The winner is very, very likely to be a quarterback.
  2. Voters love repeat winners, but not back-to-back.
  3. MVPs put up great numbers but limit turnovers.
  4. MVPs win a lot of games; they're usually No. 1 seeds in their conference.
  5. Preseason long shots have been the norm of late.
  6. EPA/play + CPOE is the best single MVP predictor.

2024-25 NFL MVP Odds Comparison

Compare odds for NFL MVP across all major U.S. sportsbooks.

FUTURESConsensusCons.
Josh AllenJ.Allen
-450
N/A
-400
-450
-470
-250
Lamar JacksonL.Jackson
+320
N/A
+300
+320
+320
+200
Saquon BarkleyS.Barkley
+7500
N/A
+7000
+8000
+7500
+3300
Joe BurrowJ.Burrow
+10000
N/A
+2200
+10000
+30000
+1600
Jared GoffJ.Goff
+15000
N/A
+10000
+15000
+15000
+10000
Jayden DanielsJ.Daniels
+25000
N/A
+20000
+25000
+50000
+50000
Baker MayfieldB.Mayfield
+40000
N/A
+40000
+40000
N/A
+15000
Patrick MahomesP.Mahomes
+50000
N/A
+40000
+50000
+50000
+50000
Sam DarnoldS.Darnold
+50000
N/A
+10000
+50000
+50000
+10000
Jalen HurtsJ.Hurts
+50000
N/A
N/A
+50000
N/A
N/A
Derrick HenryD.Henry
+50000
N/A
+50000
+50000
N/A
N/A
Justin HerbertJ.Herbert
+50000
N/A
N/A
+50000
+50000
+50000
Aaron RodgersA.Rodgers
+50000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
T.J. HockensonT.Hockenson
+75000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Bryce YoungB.Young
+100000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

How to Win NFL MVP

So you want to win NFL MVP -- or if you're reading this, you want to corretly bet the NFL MVP? Here's how to do it:

The Positions

Does the award gravitate toward a certain position?

This is a quarterback award, unless a running back posts an insane season.

The last time a non-QB or RB won was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Kicker Mark Moseley won in the strike-shortened 1982 season, which is hilarious. DT Alan Page won in 1971. Those are the only three non-quarterbacks or running backs.

A wide receiver has never won.

And 10 of the 18 running backs that did win happened before 1980.

It's a quarterback award.

The Voting

How does the voting work?

Who votes: A nationwide panel of media votes on the award. The NFL uses the AP's award as its official one, though several other outlets also give it out.

How many votes: Voters pick one player, so there are only 50 total ballots.

When do they vote? End of the regular season.

Any voting biases? It doesn't seem like it.

How many players get votes? Very few. Just 30 total players have received a vote in the past 10 years, and in many years, it's just two players. There isn't a ton of controversy around the winner.

The Narrative

Does a player need some "positive narrative" in their favor to win?

Not really. It's mostly about on-field performance.

The player doesn't have to be loved by the media. Nor does he need to have a feel-good story. Aaron Rodgers has won twice in a row after all.

The "carrying the team on his back" narrative can help a bit, if the perception is that the player brought the team much further than expected with little help around him.

Adrian Peterson for example helped get the Vikings to the postseason in 2012 with the second-most rushing yards ever in a season. Christian Ponder was their quarterback.

The Stats

What kinds of stats do voters care about?

Stats very much matter.

But the weird thing is that touchdowns (and TD/INT ratio) seem to matter the most.

Advanced stats like QBR seem somewhat predictive of the winner, but voters for most awards are focused on raw, easily quantifiable stats like TDs and INTs.

Passing yards don't seem to matter quite as much either, as long as the quarterback is among the league leaders.

Past NFL MVPs

MVP  Year
Lamar Jackson 2023-24
Patrick Mahomes 2022-23
Aaron Rodgers 2021-22
Aaron Rodgers 2020-21
Lamar Jackson 2019-20
Patrick Mahomes 2018-19
Tom Brady 2017-18
Matt Ryan 2016-17
Cam Newton 2015-16
Aaron Rodgers 2014-15
Peyton Manning 2013-14
Adrian Peterson 2012-13
Aaron Rodgers 2011-12
Tom Brady 2010-11
Peyton Manning 2009-10
Peyton Manning 2008-09
Tom Brady 2007-08
LaDainian Tomlinson 2006-07
Shaun Alexander 2005-06
Peyton Manning 2004-05
Peyton Manning 2003-04
Steve McNair 2003-04
Rich Gannon 2002-03
Kurt Warner 2001-02
Marshall Faulk 2000-01
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