Jets vs. Patriots Odds, NFL Picks, Predictions: Week 7 Over/Under Valuable Amid Conservative Offenses
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Mac Jones and Rhamondre Stevenson.
- The Patriots have kept their offensive game plan conservative with Mac Jones while the Jets offense has yet to fly.
- Our analyst breaks down the Jets vs. Patriots odds and explains why he's expecting a low-scoring AFC East matchup in Week 7.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
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New York entered its bye after a tough loss in London to the Falcons, 27-20. What has held the Jets back so far this season is their poor first-half performances. Unfortunately, fixing that against the Patriots will not be easy. Of course, it should not be too difficult for the Jets to start stronger than they did in their first matchup against the Pats in which three of Zach Wilson’s first five passes were intercepted.
Recent weeks have had the Patriots jumping back and forth between moral victory and moral defeats. In its past three games, New England suffered a two-point loss to Tampa Bay, secured a three-point victory in Houston, and lost in heartbreaking fashion to Dallas.
There is no better opportunity for an angry Bill Belichick, though, than a rookie quarterback coming into Foxborough.
If Week 2 is any indicator, this game will be one the Patriots control from the get-go. However, seven points is a lot for a team with an offense as conservative as New England, so let’s see if we can find a value on the total instead.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Jets vs. Patriots Injury Report
- TE Tyler Kroft (back): Out
- LB CJ Mosley (hamstring): Doubtful
- RB Tevin Coleman (hamstring): Questionable
- CB Jonathan Jones (shoulder): Out
- CB Shaun Wade (concussion): Out
- DL Christian Barmore (shoulder): Questionable
- LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (ribs): Questionable
- RB Brandon Bolden (thigh): Questionable
- S Kyle Dugger (knee): Questionable
- K Nick Folk (left knee): Questionable
- DL Davon Godchaux (finger): Questionable
- LB Dont’a Hightower (elbow/ankle): Questionable
- LB Brandon King (thigh): Questionable
- G Shaq Mason (abdomen): Questionable
- DB Jalen Mills (hamstring): Questionable
- DB Adrian Phillips (back): Questionable
- LB Josh Uche (shoulder): Questionable
- LB Kyle Van Noy (groin): Questionable
- DL Deatrich Wise Jr. (knee): Questionable
Jets vs. Patriots Matchup
|Jets Offense||DVOA Rank||Patriots Defense|
|Jets Defense||DVOA Rank||Patriots Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Slow Starts Have Grounded Jets
New York has been characterized by one thing: Slow starts.
In the first half of games, the Jets have a quarterback rating of 21.5 and zero touchdowns to six interceptions. I was surprised to see their rating down all the way near zero in the first quarter, per Pro Football Reference.
Things get better in the second half, but they still are not good. New York’s passer rating climbs to 87.4 in second halves, throwing for four touchdowns and three interceptions. Even if the Jets transfer that passing production to the first half, they still need improvement.
On the ground, it’s a surprise the Jets have not had more success. Per PFF, New York has a 73.9 run-blocking grade. That is ranked eighth and is right in line around the Titans and Rams, both of whom have run the ball much better. Hopefully rookie Michael Carter gets a better feel for the NFL and can take advantage of that blocking.
Defensively, New York’s front four has been the only positive part of the defense. Its ferocious play has helped it achieve the fifth-best pressure rate at 28.4%, per Pro Football Reference. Unfortunately, unless it takes the quarterback or running back down, little help is in support — the Jets’ PFF coverage grade ranks sixth-worst at 48.0, and their linebackers are each under 45.0 against the run.
Right now, it looks like the only place where the Jets are functioning is in the trenches.
Run Game Bolsters Conservative Patriots Offense
Even though New England sits at 2-4, Patriots fans can sleep calmly knowing they found their quarterback. Mac Jones has played the best of any rookie quarterback and it is not even close: He ranks 14th at the position heading into Week 7, per PFF, and has fit perfectly into the Patriots’ system.
While he has fit the role well, we have yet to see him take over a game with his arm — New England hasn’t eclipsed 300 yards passing in a game this season. Part of the reason for the low ceiling on the passing game is that the Patriots play conservatively with their young quarterback. Against the Cowboys, we saw the Patriots elect to punt on several fourth-and-short scenarios around midfield.
The Jets could be a good opportunity to test Jones a little more.
New England can play conservatively on offense because of the success of its running game. The Patriots have had more than 100 yards rushing in four of their six games, and the two games they missed were against the Saints and Buccaneers, the top two defenses in yards per rush allowed. The Patriots should be able to make that five of seven against the Jets.
Defensively, the Patriots have played particularly well against the run. They aren’t the Saints or Bucs, but the Patriots’ 3.8 yards allowed per rush is fourth-best in the NFL. Their pass defense had been similarly impressive until last week against the Cowboys when, for the first time, it allowed more than 300 yards passing. Of course, Dallas took full advantage, throwing for 445 yards.
A home matchup against a rookie quarterback should help their pass defense get back on track.
NFL Picks: Jets vs. Patriots
The coaching advantage should help New England get an early lead. However, its conservative style makes me hesitant to think the Patriots can put together a big lead. Add in that the Jets have fought back into several games, and a seven-point spread is just too much for me.
However, as for the total, New England’s conservative style can play in our favor. Its running game should grind out the clock while New York’s pass rush should help limit New England to short throws. This will force the Patriots to score on long, slow drives and keep the amount of possessions down.
As for the Jets scoring, so far this season they have shown no threat of that in the first half. While their second halves have been much more impressive, that meant nothing in the first matchup against the Patriots. Until Wilson learns to take what the defense gives him, the Jets’ offense will continue to be limited — especially against a team as disciplined as the Patriots.
In the app, you can see that Action’s Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner is also riding the under. It’s always a good sign when the best and brightest are on your side.
Pick: Under 42.5| Bet to: 41.5
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