Tonight’s NHL slate features only four games, but that is more than enough to find some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games starting at 8:00 and 9:30 p.m. ET.
Blues C Brayden Schenn under 3 shots on goal (-105 at Bovada)
8:00 p.m. ET
The Blues own a mediocre 5-4-1 record over their past ten games, and although they will be skating at home this line feels a bit high for Schenn against the Bruins. Boston has allowed a slate-low 40.75 Corsi (total shot attempts) over the past month, and Schenn has averaged only 2.91 shots per game over that same time period. The Blues have today’s lowest Expected Corsi For, so it’s difficult to see Schenn exceeding his monthly average in what should be one of the slowest-paced games of the day.
Ducks G John Gibson over 30.5 total saves (-115 at Bovada)
9:30 p.m. ET
Gibson should be busy today against the Flames, who (despite losing three straight games) lead the slate in Corsi For over the past month (57.17) while averaging only 2.5 goals per game. Gibson’s 37.65 Save Prediction in our Models leads the slate. This line looks to be criminally low given the matchup and Calgary’s Expected Goals For.
Flames D Dougie Hamilton over 3 shots on goal (-160 at Bovada)
9:30 p.m. ET
Hamilton has been sensational for the Flames lately, registering 4.07 shots on goal per game over the past month (99th percentile in our Trends tool). Anaheim has allowed 47.32 total shot attempts per game over the past month — the third-highest total on the entire slate — and Hamilton has exceeded three shots on goal in seven of his past ten games.
Pictured above: John Gibson
Photo credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA Today Sports