The New York Rangers (10-8-2) and Vegas Golden Knights (8-4-6) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 10:07 p.m. EST at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Golden Knights are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (O-105 /U-115). The Golden Knights are priced at -135 favorites to win outright, while the Rangers are +115 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Rangers vs. Golden Knights predictions and NHL picks.
Rangers vs. Golden Knights Odds, Pick
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 6 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6 -105o / -115u | -135 |
- Rangers vs. Golden Knights Spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (+180 ), Rangers +1.5 (-220)
- Rangers vs. Golden Knights Over/Under: 6 (O -115/U -115)
- Rangers vs. Golden Knights Moneyline: Rangers +115, Golden Knights -135
Rangers vs. Golden Knights Preview
New York Rangers
The Rangers were the butt-end of plenty of negative commentary early on in the season, as the team simply could not generate any offense during their 3-6-1 start to the campaign. Most sharp NHL analysts could see that the team's process looked pretty fundamentally sound, however, and believed that once their scoring chances started to go in at a more standard rate, they might be a pretty formidable side.
Following a humiliating 5-1 loss to the 32nd-ranked Calgary Flames on October 26th, the Rangers have posted a 7-3-0 record and hold an expected goal share of 53.23% in even-strength play. During the Igor Shesterkin era and with its current roster core, New York has generally been able to find success while being outchanced, which is noteworthy given that, under new head coach Mike Sullivan, it has actually defended quite well.
Getting second-line center Vincent Trocheck back in the lineup has also powered the Rangers' improved play of late. Trocheck has put up five points in six games this season and continues to show strong chemistry with Artemi Panarin, who has racked up 11 points over the last six games.
Trocheck and Panarin team up with Alexis Lafreniere at even strength, a line that was the Rangers' most-used over the previous two seasons. In 68.1 minutes of play this season, the trio has scored an absurd 7.05 goals per 60.
Lafreniere, a former first overall pick, has recorded three goals and three assists over the last six games and also started to look more threatening while playing on a line that has shown strong chemistry. He's been held pointless over the last two matchups, which were both ultra-tight-checking, but still appears to be a strong candidate to buy in the prop market and in fantasy hockey leagues for the time being.
Whether it's Igor Shesterkin (probable) or Jonathan Quick, the Rangers will have a significant edge in goal in this matchup with the Knights' number-one goaltender, Adin Hill, currently sidelined due to injury. Shesterkin has a .913 save percentage and a 2.39 GAA in 15 appearances this season, benefiting from the team's much-improved defensive play.
Will Borgen missed Sunday's game due to injury and is considered a game-time decision for this matchup. Borgen has been a strong shutdown defender this season.
Vegas Golden Knights
With a record of 8-4-6, the Knights, who were a preseason Stanley Cup favorite, have been just good enough not to draw much attention one way or the other. They hold a fairly modest record of 3-3-4 over their last ten games, which mainly comes down to poor goaltending from Akira Schmid and Carl Lindbom, as well as poor play in highly volatile three-on-three overtime periods.
From an analytical perspective, the Knights' recent play suggests they are still a juggernaut. Over the last ten games, they hold a 54.19% expected goal share and have allowed only 25.24 shots against per 60. They have received a save percentage of just .880 in that span. Combined with the team's ineffectiveness in overtime, it has led to an underwhelming record.
Head coach Bruce Cassidy separated Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner onto two separate lines in both weekend matchups, opting for balance in his top six.
Talented young forward Braeden Bowman scored the first goal of his NHL career Saturday while playing alongside Eichel and Ivan Barbashev on the top-line, and appears likely to remain in that role in tonight's matchup. Bowman has also skated on the team's five-forward top power play unit over the last two matchups, making him an appealing candidate from a prop betting perspective. However, the price for Bowman to score in tonight's matchup is now down to +275 despite this being a tough matchup for production.
Schmid is expected to start in goal for the Knights. Though his surface-level stats are solid (.900 save %, 2.50 GAA), the Knights have defended well in front of him, and he holds a breakeven +0.3 GSAx rating.
Rangers vs. Golden Knights Prediction
The Rangers opened at +135, but it's no surprise to me that they have now ticked down to what appears to be a more accurate price of +115. Their overall process has looked quite solid, and they have a noteworthy edge in goal, with Shesterkin likely to face off against Schmid.
The Knights have still looked to be a formidable side of late, but, due to shaky goaltending and modest offensive upside in the bottom six, have played in a ton of closely contested games.
Given the Rangers' strong defensive play in front of Shesterkin, it seems unlikely they will lose this game in an uncompetitive fashion. Still, their lack of offensive depth could make it difficult to create much separation from the Knights on the scoreboard in this tough road matchup.
Three-point games have been running rampant in the NHL this season, as 28.5% of all games this season have required overtime. As I outlined yesterday for Canada Sports Betting, it seems like a solid trend to buy into for the time being, as teams appear more inclined than ever to play for at least a loser point in close-score games.
With that in mind, prices north of +310 start to look pretty appealing, and if this trend goes on much longer, the odds for a regulation tie will likely start to come down on average.
Those who are most familiar with my work will know I'm not keen to just blanket bet this type of trend, but it is a trend I'm happy to try and utilize, with some consideration of whether the specific game in question looks like a good spot. This one fits the bill, as it seems pretty likely we will see a game featuring close scorelines throughout.
At +330, I see value in backing this game to go to overtime.
Pick: 3-Way Moneyline Tie (Game to Require Overtime) +330 (FanDuel, Play to +315)
