The New York Islanders (10-7-2) and Dallas Stars (12-4-3) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EST at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Stars are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+105o / -125u). The Stars are a -170 favorite to win outright, while the Islanders are +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Islanders vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks.
Islanders vs. Stars Odds, Pick
| Islanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 6.5 +105o / -125u | +140 |
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 6.5 +105o / -125u | -170 |
Islanders vs. Stars Spread: Stars -1.5 (+150 ), Islanders +1.5 (-180)
Islanders vs. Stars Over/Under: 6.5 (+105o / -125u)
Islanders vs. Stars Moneyline: Islanders +140, Stars -170
Islanders vs. Stars Preview
New York Islanders
It feels like the Islanders are good and fun, but I’m going to temper my expectations until the Olympic break.
Apart from winning the close games recently, I’ve also noticed a slight uptick in both their 5-on-5 offense and defense. It’ll be something to keep an eye on as the season progresses, but it’s certainly encouraging.
And how about that penalty kill?
Last year, they had a historically bad PK for most of the season, but as of today, they’re converting at an 11th-best 81.5%.
Rookie defenseman and first overall pick Matthew Schaefer has been a total beauty, making plays you usually see from veterans 10 years into the league.
We’re also starting to see a resurgence from Mathew Barzal, while Bo Horvat has been on a point-per-game pace.
Goaltender Ilya Sorokin had a very rough start, but just like the players in front of him, he seems to be slowly picking up the slack. He’s currently at an .898 SV%, but that 8.8 GSAx should tell you all you need to know about what to expect down the road.
He’ll only get better as the season wears on.
Dallas Stars
It’s hard to find a team that’s hotter than the Dallas Stars, winners of five straight and six of their last seven.
Since the beginning of the month, Dallas has been playing elite 5-on-5 hockey, ranking in the top 10 in expected goals and expected goals against per 60 minutes.
Superstar sniper Jason Robertson is on an absolute heater. He’s posted three points in three straight games (six goals and three assists over that span), including a hat trick against the Flyers this past Saturday.
This Stars roster is stacked from top to bottom. Beyond Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston and Roope Hintz are all averaging over a point per game.
Dallas will be without one of its premium defenders, as Thomas Harley is out week-to-week with a lower-body injury.
Still, goaltender Jake Oettinger is good enough to help cover that absence. After a relatively slow start, Otter has played to a .901 SV%. It doesn’t jump off the page, but apart from a brutal game against the Ducks, he’s been everything the Stars have needed and more.
Islanders vs. Stars Prediction
If you follow me on X (@Gregasus14 wink wink), you probably know I’m an Islanders fan, so please, hold your eye rolls until you get to the end of this section.
I think this is a quality opportunity to back the Isles here, and here’s why.
Looking at BetLabs, Action Network’s Director of Research Evan Abrams has a model called “Contrarian Road Dogs,” which states:
“The market tends to overvalue home-ice advantage and recent perception, creating inflated prices on the favorite. By targeting road teams receiving limited public backing but still within striking odds, this system takes advantage of inefficient lines where motivation and matchup quality are underestimated. Over time, fading public consensus in these midrange road-dog spots has produced steady returns.”
This season, the Contrarian Road Dogs model has achieved a near-50% success rate.
The Islanders are on the back end of a hefty road trip, but since picking a puck line against this pesky bunch is a risk, I’d rather take a flier on the team that has been as resilient as can be.
Not only that, up until the final minute of their game against Colorado, they nearly sent that matchup into overtime if it wasn’t for Scott Wedgewood’s heroics.
Could I be crazy? Actually, don’t answer that. But I think the value here is too appealing to ignore.
Pick: Islanders ML
